Book Description

Many sites of groundwater contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This has created a need for tools and approaches that can be used to build confidence in model predictions and make it apparent to regulators, policy makers, and the public that these models are sufficient for decision making. This confidence building is a long-term iterative process and it is this process that should be termed ''model validation.'' Model validation is a process not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot always assure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. Therefore, development of a systematic approach for evaluating and validating subsurface predictive models and guiding field activities for data collection and long-term monitoring is strongly needed. This report presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to groundwater flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general in nature, but the focus of the discussion is on site-specific, predictive groundwater models that are used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. An attempt is made to compile most of the published studies on groundwater model validation and assemble what has been proposed or used for validating subsurface models. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point to aid the development of the validation plan for the groundwater flow and transport model of the Faultless nuclear test conducted at the Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA). The review of previous studies on model validation shows that there does not exist a set of specific procedures and tests that can be easily adapted and applied to determine the validity of site-specific groundwater models. This is true for both deterministic and stochastic models, with the latter posing a more difficult and challenging problem when it comes to validation. This report then proposes a general validation approach for the CNTA model, which addresses some of the important issues recognized in previous validation studies, conferences, and symposia as crucial to the process. The proposed approach links model building, model calibration, model predictions, data collection, model evaluations, and model validation in an iterative loop. The approach focuses on use of collected validation data to reduce model uncertainty and narrow the range of possible outcomes of stochastic numerical models. It accounts for the stochastic nature of the numerical CNTA model, which used Monte Carlo simulation approach. The proposed methodology relies on the premise that absolute validity is not even a theoretical possibility and is not a regulatory requirement. Rather, it highlights the importance of testing as many aspects of the model as possible and using as many diverse statistical tools as possible for rigorous checking and confidence building in the model and its predictions. It is this confidence that will eventually allow for regulator and public acceptance of decisions based on the model predictions.