Disaggregated Perspectives on Emerging Market Financial Flows and Integration


Book Description

This dissertation addresses questions relating to the real economic impact of international financial flows and integration on emerging market economies. Chapter 1 studies emerging markets' corporate liquidity policies in response to financial constraints and uncertainty in global capital markets. I develop a simple model that shows the importance of these two factors in motivating emerging market firms to accumulate internal funds in the form of cash. Using firm and issuance-level data, I find evidence consistent with this hypothesis. I consider the context of these economies' widespread capital flow booms and busts surrounding the global financial crisis of 2008-09. More constrained firms held more cash on average, but they had weaker ability to accumulate cash during the post-crisis period. Furthermore, I show that cash improved foreign-financing-constrained firms' resilience, as those that held more cash prior to the crisis maintained higher levels of investment after the crisis started. Lastly, firms in countries with higher capital flows volatility during the postcrisis period accumulated more cash. This paper highlights a previously-ignored dimension in international economic policy: corporate internal funds impact the vulnerability of firms to capital-flows-generated supply shocks. Chapter 2 investigates the effects of capital account liberalization on wage inequality in emerging markets. I first develop a two-country general equilibrium model, which predicts that wages would rise across all sectors after an emerging market liberalizes its capital account. However, due to sector-level differences in marginal labor productivity, wages increase more in the sector with higher skill intensity. I then use industry-level panel data across sixty-eight emerging markets to evaluate this model. Consistent with the predictions of the model, financial liberalization boosts real wages across all sectors but this increase is disproportionately higher for more skill-intensive sectors, suggesting a rise in wage inequality. Chapter 3 examines the effects of surges and stops in gross capital inflows on emerging market corporate investment at the firm level. While surges and stops do transmit to the real economy in the form of higher and lower physical investment, respectively, this effect is not symmetric. The increase in investment during surge periods is larger in magnitude than the decrease in investment posed by stop episodes. The investment decline during stop episodes is concentrated among financially constrained firms. No such concentrated effect was observed during surge periods. Financial openness affects the magnitude of investment declines during stop episodes but plays no additional role in affecting financially constrained firms, suggesting that the source of emerging market firm financial constraints arises from micro-structural factors. ii.




New Paradigms for Financial Regulation


Book Description

" A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication The global financial crisis has led to a sweeping reevaluation of financial market regulation and macroeconomic policies. Emerging markets need to balance the goals of financial development and broader financial inclusion with the imperative of strengthening macroeconomic and financial stability. The third in a series on emerging markets, New Paradigms for Financial Regulation develops new analytical frameworks and provides policy prescriptions for how the frameworks should be adapted to a world of more free and more volatile capital. This volume provides an overview of the global regulatory landscape from the perspective of Asian emerging markets. The contributors discuss the many challenges ahead in developing sound and flexible financial regulatory systems for emerging market economies. The challenges are heightened by the rising integration of these economies into global trade and finance, the growing sophistication of their financial systems as globalization and emergence processes accelerate, and their potential vulnerability to instability arising from the financial markets in the advanced economies. The contributors provide guidance about pitfalls to be avoided, general principles that should guide the creation of sound regulatory systems, and valuable analytic perspectives about how to continue to broaden the financial sector and innovate while still maintaining financial and macroeconomic stability. "




World Development Report 2017


Book Description

Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.




Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets


Book Description

During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.




Globalization in Historical Perspective


Book Description

As awareness of the process of globalization grows and the study of its effects becomes increasingly important to governments and businesses (as well as to a sizable opposition), the need for historical understanding also increases. Despite the importance of the topic, few attempts have been made to present a long-term economic analysis of the phenomenon, one that frames the issue by examining its place in the long history of international integration. This volume collects eleven papers doing exactly that and more. The first group of essays explores how the process of globalization can be measured in terms of the long-term integration of different markets-from the markets for goods and commodities to those for labor and capital, and from the sixteenth century to the present. The second set of contributions places this knowledge in a wider context, examining some of the trends and questions that have emerged as markets converge and diverge: the roles of technology and geography are both considered, along with the controversial issues of globalization's effects on inequality and social justice and the roles of political institutions in responding to them. The final group of essays addresses the international financial systems that play such a large part in guiding the process of globalization, considering the influence of exchange rate regimes, financial development, financial crises, and the architecture of the international financial system itself. This volume reveals a much larger picture of the process of globalization, one that stretches from the establishment of a global economic system during the nineteenth century through the disruptions of two world wars and the Great Depression into the present day. The keen analysis, insight, and wisdom in this volume will have something to offer a wide range of readers interested in this important issue.




Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets


Book Description

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.







International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis


Book Description

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.




This Time Is Different


Book Description

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.




A Tie That Binds


Book Description

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about 40 emerging market countries over 1986–2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. Countries with fixed exchange rate regimes are more likely to experience financial vulnerabilities—faster domestic credit and house price growth, and increases in bank leverage—than those with relatively flexible regimes. The transmission of global financial shocks is likewise magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) regimes. We attribute this to both reduced monetary policy autonomy and a greater sensitivity of capital flows to changes in global conditions under fixed rate regimes.