› › Disentangling The Predictive Validity Of High School Grades For Academic Success In University

Disentangling the Predictive Validity of High School Grades for Academic Success in University

Author :

Publisher :

Page : pages

File Size : 37,62 MB

Release : 2018

Category :

ISBN :

Get eBook

Book Description

Abstract: To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university programme. Predictive validity is compared between the Dutch pre-university (VWO) and the International Baccalaureate (IB) diploma. Moreover, we study how final GPA is predicted by prior achievement after students complete their first year. Path models were separately run for VWO ( n = 314) and IB ( n = 113) graduates. For VWO graduates, high school GPA explained more variance than core subject grades in first-year GPA and final GPA. For IB graduates, we found the opposite. Subsequent path models showed that after students' completion of the first year, final GPA is best predicted by a combination of first-year GPA and high school GPA. Based on our small-scale results, we cautiously challenge the use of high school GPA as the norm for measuring prior achievement. Which measure of prior achievement best predicts academic success in university may depend on the diploma students enter with.



Validity of High-School Grades in Predicting Student Success Beyond the Freshman Year

Author : Saul Geiser

Publisher :

Page : 35 pages

File Size : 21,81 MB

Release : 2007

Category :

ISBN :

Get eBook

Book Description

High-school grades are often viewed as an unreliable criterion for college admissions, owing to differences in grading standards across high schools, while standardized tests are seen as methodologically rigorous, providing a more uniform and valid yardstick for assessing student ability and achievement. The present study challenges that conventional view. The study finds that high-school grade point average (HSGPA) is consistently the best predictor not only of freshman grades in college, the outcome indicator most often employed in predictive-validity studies, but of four-year college outcomes as well. A previous study, UC and the SAT (Geiser with Studley, 2003), demonstrated that HSGPA in college-preparatory courses was the best predictor of freshman grades for a sample of almost 80,000 students admitted to the University of California. Because freshman grades provide only a short-term indicator of college performance, the present study tracked four-year college outcomes, including cumulative college grades and graduation, for the same sample in order to examine the relative contribution of high-school record and standardized tests in predicting longer-term college performance. Key findings are: (1) HSGPA is consistently the strongest predictor of four-year college outcomes for all academic disciplines, campuses and freshman cohorts in the UC sample; (2) surprisingly, the predictive weight associated with HSGPA increases after the freshman year, accounting for a greater proportion of variance in cumulative fourth-year than first-year college grades; and (3) as an admissions criterion, HSGPA has less adverse impact than standardized tests on disadvantaged and underrepresented minority students. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for admissions policy and argues for greater emphasis on the high-school record, and a corresponding de-emphasis on standardized tests, in college admissions. Three appendixes are included: (1) Descriptive Statistics for Predictor and Outcome Variables; (2) Correlation Matrix of Predictor and Outcome Variables; and (3) Multicollinearity Tolerances of Admissions Variables. (Contains 34 notes and 20 tables.).







Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scores in Making College Admission Decisions. ACT Research Report

Author : Richard Sawyer

Publisher :

Page : 73 pages

File Size : 34,22 MB

Release : 2010

Category :

ISBN :

Get eBook

Book Description

Ample correlational evidence indicates that high school GPA is usually better than admission test scores in predicting first-year college GPA, although test scores have incremental predictive validity. Many people conclude that this correlational evidence translates directly to usefulness in making admission decisions. The issue of usefulness is more complex than is implied by correlations or by other regression statistics, however. This paper considers two common goals in college admission: maximizing academic success and accurately identifying potentially successful applicants. The usefulness of selection variables in achieving these goals depends not only on the predictive strength of the selection variables (such as measured by correlations), but also on other factors, including the distribution of the selection variables in the applicant population, institutions' selectivity, and their criteria for what constitutes success. This paper considers indicators of usefulness in achieving admission goals, and presents estimates of the indicators based on data from a large sample of four-year institutions. The results suggest that high school GPA is more useful than admission test scores in situations involving low selectivity in admissions and minimal to average academic performance in college. In contrast, test scores are more useful than high school GPA in situations involving high selectivity and high academic performance. In nearly all contexts, test scores have incremental usefulness beyond high school GPA. The paper also presents evidence for two other interesting phenomena: Students use their high school GPAs and test scores to select the institutions they want to attend, and this self selection may be more important than institutions' selection in admissions. Moreover, high school GPA by test score interactions are important in predicting academic success. Relationship of conditional probability of success and its marginal distribution with Success Rate and Accuracy Rate is appended. (Contains 11 tables and 10 figures.).



High School Students Ten Years After A Nation at Risk

Author : Thomas M. Smith

Publisher :

Page : 20 pages

File Size : 46,10 MB

Release : 1995

Category : Academic achievement

ISBN :

Get eBook

Book Description

The first in a series, this study uses newly available data to describe the measurable changes in coursetaking, academic achievement, educational aspirations, and college enrollment rates of American high school students in the decade since the 1983 publication of "A Nation At Risk." The study's principal findings are: (1) high school students are taking more courses, particularly in academic areas; (2) students are taking more difficult courses as well as a greater number of courses; (3) according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, students appear to be learning more in mathematics and science; (4) the increase in academic course-taking does not appear to have adversely affected the achievement of advanced students; (5) for the most part, students with lower abilities do not appear to have suffered as a result of curricular reforms instituted since the publication of "A Nation At Risk"; (6) fewer students are dropping out of high school between 10th and 12th grade than were dropping out a decade ago; (7) students' educational aspirations are increasing; (8) the percentage of graduates going immediately on to college continues to rise; (9) enrollment in college over the past decade has increased despite dramatic increases in college costs between 1982 and 1992; (10) it is difficult to assess how increases in the academic proficiency of 17-year-olds and the percentage of high school graduates going to college affect the academic preparedness of college freshmen--that is, whereas SAT and ACT math scores increased and verbal scores decreased, the percentage of colleges and universities offering remedial instruction or tutoring increased. (Contains 12 references.) (TM)