Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics


Book Description

This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.




Econometrics of Risk


Book Description

This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.




Symmetric Multivariate and Related Distributions


Book Description

Since the publication of the by now classical Johnson and Kotz Continuous Multivariate Distributions (Wiley, 1972) there have been substantial developments in multivariate distribution theory especially in the area of non-normal symmetric multivariate distributions. The book by Fang, Kotz and Ng summarizes these developments in a manner which is accessible to a reader with only limited background (advanced real-analysis calculus, linear algebra and elementary matrix calculus). Many of the results in this field are due to Kai-Tai Fang and his associates and appeared in Chinese publications only. A thorough literature search was conducted and the book represents the latest work - as of 1988 - in this rapidly developing field of multivariate distributions. The authors are experts in statistical distribution theory.




Mathematical Reviews


Book Description




Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall


Book Description

In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.




Statistical Methods in Water Resources


Book Description

Data on water quality and other environmental issues are being collected at an ever-increasing rate. In the past, however, the techniques used by scientists to interpret this data have not progressed as quickly. This is a book of modern statistical methods for analysis of practical problems in water quality and water resources.The last fifteen years have seen major advances in the fields of exploratory data analysis (EDA) and robust statistical methods. The 'real-life' characteristics of environmental data tend to drive analysis towards the use of these methods. These advances are presented in a practical and relevant format. Alternate methods are compared, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each as applied to environmental data. Techniques for trend analysis and dealing with water below the detection limit are topics covered, which are of great interest to consultants in water-quality and hydrology, scientists in state, provincial and federal water resources, and geological survey agencies.The practising water resources scientist will find the worked examples using actual field data from case studies of environmental problems, of real value. Exercises at the end of each chapter enable the mechanics of the methodological process to be fully understood, with data sets included on diskette for easy use. The result is a book that is both up-to-date and immediately relevant to ongoing work in the environmental and water sciences.




Data Depth


Book Description

The book is a collection of some of the research presented at the workshop of the same name held in May 2003 at Rutgers University. The workshop brought together researchers from two different communities: statisticians and specialists in computational geometry. The main idea unifying these two research areas turned out to be the notion of data depth, which is an important notion both in statistics and in the study of efficiency of algorithms used in computational geometry. Many of the articles in the book lay down the foundations for further collaboration and interdisciplinary research. Information for our distributors: Co-published with the Center for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science beginning with Volume 8. Volumes 1-7 were co-published with the Association for Computer Machinery (ACM).




Uncertainty Analysis in Econometrics with Applications


Book Description

Unlike uncertain dynamical systems in physical sciences where models for prediction are somewhat given to us by physical laws, uncertain dynamical systems in economics need statistical models. In this context, modeling and optimization surface as basic ingredients for fruitful applications. This volume concentrates on the current methodology of copulas and maximum entropy optimization. This volume contains main research presentations at the Sixth International Conference of the Thailand Econometrics Society held at the Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, during January 10-11, 2013. It consists of keynote addresses, theoretical and applied contributions. These contributions to Econometrics are somewhat centered around the theme of Copulas and Maximum Entropy Econometrics. The method of copulas is applied to a variety of economic problems where multivariate model building and correlation analysis are needed. As for the art of choosing copulas in practical problems, the principle of maximum entropy surfaces as a potential way to do so. The state-of-the-art of Maximum Entropy Econometrics is presented in the first keynote address, while the second keynote address focusses on testing stationarity in economic time series data.




Analyzing Compositional Data with R


Book Description

This book presents the statistical analysis of compositional data sets, i.e., data in percentages, proportions, concentrations, etc. The subject is covered from its grounding principles to the practical use in descriptive exploratory analysis, robust linear models and advanced multivariate statistical methods, including zeros and missing values, and paying special attention to data visualization and model display issues. Many illustrated examples and code chunks guide the reader into their modeling and interpretation. And, though the book primarily serves as a reference guide for the R package “compositions,” it is also a general introductory text on Compositional Data Analysis. Awareness of their special characteristics spread in the Geosciences in the early sixties, but a strategy for properly dealing with them was not available until the works of Aitchison in the eighties. Since then, research has expanded our understanding of their theoretical principles and the potentials and limitations of their interpretation. This is the first comprehensive textbook addressing these issues, as well as their practical implications with regard to software. The book is intended for scientists interested in statistically analyzing their compositional data. The subject enjoys relatively broad awareness in the geosciences and environmental sciences, but the spectrum of recent applications also covers areas like medicine, official statistics, and economics. Readers should be familiar with basic univariate and multivariate statistics. Knowledge of R is recommended but not required, as the book is self-contained.




Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails


Book Description

The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.