The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation


Book Description

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.




Energy Subsidy Reform


Book Description

Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.




Case Studies on Energy Subsidy Reform—Lessons and Implications - Supplement


Book Description

This supplement presents country case studies reviewing energy subsidy reform experiences, which are the basis for the reform lessons identified in the main paper. The selection of countries for the case studies reflects the availability of data and of previously documented evidence on country-specific reforms. The 22 country case studies were also chosen to provide cases from all regions and a mix of outcomes from reform. The studies cover 19 countries, including seven from sub-Saharan Africa, two in developing Asia, three in the Middle East and North Africa, four in Latin America and the Caribbean, and three in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS. The case studies are organized by energy product, with 14 studies of the reform of petroleum product subsidies, seven studies of the reform of electricity subsidies, and a case study of subsidy reform for coal. The larger number of studies on fuel subsidies reflects the wider availability of data and past studies for these reforms. The structure of each case study is similar, with each one providing the context of the reform and a description of the reforms; discussion of the impact of the reform on energy prices or subsidies and its success or failure; mitigating measures that were implemented in an attempt to generate public support for the reform and offset adverse effects on the poor; and, finally, identification of lessons for designing reforms.




Elite Capture


Book Description

India is home to one of the world's largest populations without electricity access. Traditionally, the Government of India has extended rural electrification using two instruments: consumption subsidies and free connections to households below the poverty line (BPL). This study centers on subsidies for electricity consumption, examine their size, frequency, and distribution to households. It uses poverty as a lens through which to focus more closely on these concepts, asking such questions as how well subsidies are targeted to BPL households. The study findings demonstrate that subsidies cover 87 percent of all electricity consumed by India's households. Furthermore, residential subsidies are large compared to the cost of electricity and the small cross-subsidy amounts taken from non-subsidized residential consumption. Moreover, the vast majority of electrified households receive a net subsidy on their electricity consumption. About 87 percent of subsidy payments go to households living above the poverty line (ABL) instead of to the poor, and over half of subsidy payments go to the richest 40 percent of households. The key factor driving this outcome is tariff design. Only some states have highly concessional BPL tariffs. In most states, tariffs for the non-poor are subsidized nearly as much as BPL tariffs. Because non-poor households consume significantly more electricity than poor households, they are eligible for significantly higher subsidies. Owing to the relatively low access rate among poorer households, many of them are unable to take advantage of tariff subsidies.




Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, 2


Book Description

"The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on th e poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options. While information is available on the general approach, techniques, and tools for distributional analysis, each sector displays a series of specific characteristics. These have implications for the analysis of distributional impacts, including the types of impacts and transmission channels that warrant particular attention, the tools and techniques most appropriate, the data source typically utilized, and the range of political economy factors most likely to affect the reform process. This volume provides an overview of the specific issues arising in the analysis of the distributional impacts of policy and institutional reforms in selected sectors. Each chapter offers guidance on the selection of tools and techniques most adapted to the reforms under scrutiny, and offers examples of applications of these approaches. This is a companion to the first volume, which offers guidance on trade, monetary and exchange rate policy, utility provision, agricultural markets, land policy, and education."




Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms


Book Description

Countries around the world are spending up to $500 billion per year on subsidising fossil fuel consumption. By some estimates, the G20 countries alone are spending around another $450 billion on subsidising fossil fuel production. In addition, the indirect social welfare costs of these subsidies have been shown to be substantial – for instance due to air pollution, road congestion, climate change, and economic inefficiency, to name a few. Considering these numbers, there is no doubt that fossil fuel subsidies cause severe economic distortions that compromise countries’ prospects of achieving equitable and sustainable development. This book provides a guide to the complex challenge of designing, assessing, and implementing effective fossil fuel subsidy reforms. It shows that subsidy reform requires a careful balancing of complex economic and political trade-offs, as well as measures to mitigate adverse effects on vulnerable households and to assist firms with implementing efficiency enhancing measures. Going beyond the purely fiscal perspective, this book emphasises that smart subsidy reforms can contribute to all three dimensions of sustainable development – environment, society, and economy. Over the course of eight chapters, this book considers a wide range of agents and stakeholders, markets, and policy measures in order to distil the key principles of designing effective fossil fuel subsidy reforms. This book will be of great relevance to scholars and policy makers with an interest in energy economics and policy, climate change policy, and sustainable development more broadly.




The Design and Sustainability of Renewable Energy Incentives


Book Description

This study provides economic models of the sustainability and affordability of renewable energy support schemes alongside operational advice on how the regulatory design may need to be modified to minimize the impact on the budget and be affordable to the poor, as well as how to identify and fill the financing gap.




Growing Green


Book Description

The Economic Benefits of Climate Action shows how well-designed policies can reduce the ECA region s carbon footprint while promoting growth opportunities and protecting the living standards of lower income households.




Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms


Book Description

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) is an approach used increasingly by governments, civil society organizations, the World Bank, and other development partners to examine the distributional impacts of policy reforms on the well-being of different stakeholders groups, particularly the poor and vulnerable. PSIA has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries because it promotes evidence-based policy choices and fosters debate on policy reform options. 'Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms' presents a collection of case studies that illustrate the spectrum of sectors and policy reforms to which PSIA can be applied; it also elaborates on the broad range of analytical tools and techniques that can be used for PSIA. The case studies provide examples of the impact that PSIA can have on the design of policy reforms and draw operational lessons for PSIA implementation. The case studies deal largely with policy reforms in a single sector, such as agriculture (crop marketing boards in Malawi and Tanzania and cotton privatization in Tajikistan); energy (mining sector in Romania and oil subsidies in Ghana); utilities (power sector reform in Ghana, Rwanda, and transition economies, and water sector reform in Albania); social sectors (education reform in Mozambique and social welfare reform in Sri Lanka); taxation reform (Nicaragua); as well as macroeconomic modeling (Burkina Faso).




Ukraine Gas Pricing Policy


Book Description

Ukraine’s gas pricing policy subsidizes gas and heating for all households. As the cost of imported gas rises, this policy increasingly weighs on government finances, sustains energy over-consumption, dampens investment in delivery systems, and undermines incentives for domestic production. However, gas price hikes have been deferred to the medium-term as they are politically unpopular. Through estimation of household demand functions by income quintiles to evaluate the distributional consequences of tarrif reform, this paper finds that tariff reforms combined with targeted social support can address the economic inefficiencies of the current pricing policy without large welfare costs to the lower income segments of the population.