US Politics and Exchange Rate Volatility


Book Description

In the realm of Hegemonic Politics, this paper explores the effect of domestic politics on the behaviour of international currency markets. More specifically, for the first time we gauge the impact of a divided government on the exchange rate volatility of three currencies, namely, the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the British Pound, whilst at the same time, we control for political and macroeconomic factors. To this objective, a GARCH methodology has been adopted, using weekly data spanning the period 2000 to 2021. The evidence suggests that the partisan and divided government variables have a significant impact on the conditional variance equation, whilst the observed reduced levels of exchange rate volatility during a Democrat presidency run counter to prior studies on Partisanship. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to increase one month before an election and during periods of divided government. Given the nascent evidence, we argue that US politics assume an instrumental role in affecting global financial markets, in line with the postulates of the Global Hegemonic Theory.




Currency Politics


Book Description

The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.




Explaining Competitive Currencies


Book Description

I analyze how representative institutions affect policymaker preferences over the level of the domestic exchange rate. In the first chapter, I use cross-country survey data to test whether firm managers have strong concerns about the volatility and value of the exchange rate. I find that exchange rate volatility is a far more consistent concern for managers than the value of the domestic currency. In the second chapter, I develop a theory which argues that policymakers in autocratic settings are more likely than those in democracies to maintain misaligned exchange rates and that the direction of preferred misalignment will depend on the political power of the tradables sector. The cross-county regression analysis supports the claims that democracies are more likely to have equilibrium exchange rates and that autocracies with small tradables sectors are more likely to have overvalued currencies. In the final substantive chapter, I provide strong evidence that East Asian governments have manipulated the weights of currencies in their exchange rate basket policies in pursuit of maintaining the competitiveness of their currencies.




Exchange Rate Rules


Book Description




Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America


Book Description

Most of the analysis of Latin American exchange rate problems and policies has concentrated on the economic side of things. This volume instead examines the politics of exchange rate management in four nations that had very different approaches and results. Although the Mexican peso crash, Brazil's currency crisis, Argentina's maintenance of a currency board, and Venezuelan policy responses to the shocks of 1997-98 have had major international financial ramifications, the origins and outcomes of these dramatic events have yet to be analyzed in a single volume. The contributors tie these policy episodes together using solid comparative analysis, in order to better inform the policy debate on these issues.




Trade and Domestic Financial Market Reform Under Political Uncertainty


Book Description

This paper presents a model that incorporates uncertainty about trade reform and analyzes the effects of trade and financial liberalization on domestic investment and savings, the current account balance and the real exchange rate, both when the capital account is open and when it is closed. Under certain assumptions financial liberalization leads to a movement of resources in the opposite direction to that implied by trade liberalization and to real exchange rate appreciation, thus defeating one of the objectives of tariff reform, when the capital account is open. When political economy linkages are taken into account, however, the indirect effects of financial liberalization may offset the direct effects, encouraging a movement of resources in the desired direction. With a closed capital account these results should still hold unless there are strong negative income effects from trade reform.




The Impact of Price Uncertainty


Book Description

Originally published in 1979. This book addresses three questions regarding uncertainty in economic life: how do we define uncertainty and use the concept meaningfully to provide conclusions; how can the level of uncertainty associated with a particular variable of economic interest be measured; and does experience provide any support for the view that uncertainty really matters. It develops a theory of the effect of price uncertainty on production and trade, takes a graphical approach to look at effects of a mean preserving spread to create rules for ordering distributions, and finishes with an econometric analysis of the effects of Brazil’s adoption of a crawling peg in reducing real exchange rate uncertainty. This is an important early study into the significance of uncertainty.







Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty


Book Description

These twelve essays take up economic management under flexible exchange rates in the presence of uncertainty. Nearly all of the contributions adopt a rational expectations framework, focusing on the stochastic aspects of the assumption and exploring the variability of, for example, output and prices in relation to the variability of various external disturbances.Jagdeep Bhandari is Associate Professor of International Economics at West Virginia University.