Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade


Book Description

We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements. We document these same properties in a two-country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect, in large part, the dynamics of capital formation. We find that the general equilibrium perspective is essential: The relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations.




Changing Patterns of Global Trade


Book Description

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.




Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in Ldcs


Book Description

Backus, Kehoe and Kydland in their analysis of the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance found that the lead and lag correlation between these two variables is S-shaped for a set of OECD countries. Furthermore, they show that this S-curve can be replicated by a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. Surprisingly, the S-curve describes also fairly well the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance for a large set of LDCs. This S-curve can also be reproduced by a one-country model that captures some important features of LDC economies. The S-curve is unexpectedly robust to variations in the key parameters of the model.







The Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade


Book Description

Develops a set of frequency domain diagnostic tests for evaluating the dynamic properties of nonlinear general equilibrium rational expectations models that are commonly employed in business cycle research.




The Dynamics of Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade


Book Description

We document the main cyclical features of the trade balance and the terms of trade in European Union as a whole and in the four "Cohesion Countries", in particular. S-curve describes also well the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance in these set of countries. We use the Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1994) model to replicate the empirical data. We show that only one variable in the model is robust to cross-country differences: the trade balance.




The Dynamics of Trade Balance and Terms of Trade


Book Description

We document the main cyclical features of the trade balance and the terms of trade in European Union as a whole and in the four "Cohesion Countries", in particular. S-curve describes also well the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance in these set of countries. We use the Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1994) model to replicate the empirical data. We show that only one variable in the model is robust to cross-country differences: the trade balance.




Dynamic Response to Foreign Transfers and Terms-of-trade Shocks in Open Economies


Book Description

Both permanent and transitory disturbances can change long- run capacity and output -- although they may have opposite effects on the current account. Liquidity constraints and wage rigidities tend to amplify the cyclical adjustment to external shocks.