Economic Forecasting


Book Description

Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR




Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art


Book Description

An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.




Economic Forecasting


Book Description

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.




Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art


Book Description

An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.




Economic Forecasting and Policy


Book Description

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.




Economic Forecasting


Book Description




Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series


Book Description

This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.




Mining Data for Financial Applications


Book Description

This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 5th Workshop on Mining Data for Financial Applications, MIDAS 2020, held in conjunction with ECML PKDD 2020, in Ghent, Belgium, in September 2020.* The 8 full and 3 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 15 submissions. They deal with challenges, potentialities, and applications of leveraging data-mining tasks regarding problems in the financial domain. *The workshop was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. “Information Extraction from the GDELT Database to Analyse EU Sovereign Bond Markets” and “Exploring the Predictive Power of News and Neural Machine Learning Models for Economic Forecasting” are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.




Forecasting in Business and Economics


Book Description

Describes the major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This book focuses on the forecasting of economic data and covers a range of topics, including the description of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; nonstationary and nonlinear models; and more.




Economic Forecasting


Book Description

A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike