The Economic Consequences of the Gulf War


Book Description

The Iran-Iraq War were one of the longest and most devastating uninterrupted wars amongst modern nation states. It produced neither victor nor vanquished and left the regimes in both countries basically intact. However, it is clear that the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the war mean that 'going back' is not an option. Iraq owes too much to regain the lead it formerly held in economic performance and development levels. What then does reconstruction mean? In this book, Kamran Mofid counteracts the scant analysis to date of the economic consequences of the Gulf War by analysing its impact on both economies in terms of oil production, exports, foreign exchange earnings, non-defence foreign trade and agricultural performance. In the final section, Mofid brings together the component parts of the economic cost of the war to assign a dollar value to the devastation.




Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays


Book Description

The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.




Dynamics of Change in the Persian Gulf


Book Description

The Persian Gulf has come to represent one of the most strategically significant waterways of the world. In terms of geography, geopolitics, resources, global political economy, and regional influence, the Gulf is perhaps home to the world’s most significant group of countries. Focusing on the complexities of the interplay between domestic-level changes and region-wide interactions, this book presents the reader with the first comprehensive survey of the dynamics of change in this crucial area. Systemic-oriented in its approach, the impact of war and revolution on the countries of the sub-region is discussed, and the ways in which these factors have shaped the security dilemmas and responses of the Gulf States is also explored. The role of oil is examined in terms of the impact of its income on these states and societies, and the manner in which oil has shaped the integration of these states into the global system. Oil has shrunk developmental time in these countries, and has accelerated generational shift. At the same time, it has created the dialectical relationship which now characterizes the difficult balance between prosperity and instability which is at the heart of the sub-region. Casting new light on the workings of a strategically significant part of the international system, this book will be an essential resource for students and scholars of international relations, international security and Middle Eastern politics.




The Persian Gulf Crisis


Book Description

An examination of the Gulf War conflict looks as the history of strike in the Middle East, the key individuals involved, and the consequences of this event.




Economic Impact of the Persian Gulf Crisis


Book Description




America's Economic Way of War


Book Description

This revealing book exposes the influence of economics and finance on how America waged war in the twentieth century.




Persian Gulf States


Book Description

Research completed January 1993.




War With Iran


Book Description

War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran’s relationship with the West and an expert’s estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be. Authors Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay of the Center for the National Interest utilize their years studying and informing America’s foreign policy in the Middle East to bring to life the possible outcomes of an American military intervention in Iran. Such a decision would not only have catastrophic consequences on the Persian Gulf, but would also endanger the whole world’s delicate economy by heightening instability in an already fragile but resource-rich region. Written for anyone with an interest in the future of American foreign policy, War With Iran explores what every player has at stake in the current crisis by analyzing every tension adjacent to it; from America’s staunch support of Israel to Iran’s own dogged pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Controversial, timely and thoroughly researched, this story stands as a preliminary caution against what would be a devastating meltdown of diplomacy, for which—if peace be the goal—there is always time.




Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War


Book Description

The Persian Gulf crisis may well have been the most extensively polled episode in U.S. history as President Bush, his opponents, and even Saddam Hussein appealed to, and tried to influence, public opinion. As well documented as this phenomenon was, it remains largely unexplained. John Mueller provides an account of the complex relationship between American policy and public opinion during the Gulf crisis. Mueller analyzes key issues: the actual shallowness of public support for war; the effect of public opinion on the media (rather than the other way around); the use and misuse of polls by policy makers; the American popular focus on Hussein's ouster as a central purpose of the War; and the War's short-lived impact on voting. Of particular interest is Mueller's conclusion that Bush succeeded in leading the country to war by increasingly convincing the public that it was inevitable, rather than right or wise. Throughout, Mueller, author of War, Presidents, and Public Opinion, an analysis of public opinion during the Korean and Vietnam wars, places this analysis of the Gulf crisis in a broad political and military context, making comparisons to wars in Panama, Vietnam, Korea, and the Falklands, as well as to World War II and even the War of 1812. The book also collects nearly 300 tables charting public opinion through the Gulf crisis, making Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War an essential reference for anyone interested in recent American politics, foreign policy, public opinion, and survey research.




Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead


Book Description

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.