Effects of State-dependent Forward Guidance, Large-scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-interest-rate Environment


Book Description

We study the incidence and severity of periods with a binding effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies-forward guidance about the path of future interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending based fiscal stimulus-in mitigating the detrimental consequences of the lower bound. Based on the ECB's New Area-Wide Model of the euro area, our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can cause substantial macroeconomic distortions. In the near term, forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo the distortions due to the lower bound. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, especially when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward-guidance policy via a signalling effect. In the long run, with an equilibrium real rate as low as zero, a combination of all three policies is needed to materially reduce the distortions.




Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-Scale Asset Purchases


Book Description

This paper evaluates the effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) when the nominal interest rate reaches the zero lower bound. I investigate the effects of the two policies in a dynamic new Keynesian model with financial frictions adapted from Gertler & Karadi (2011, 2013), with changes implemented so that the framework delivers realistic predictions for the effects of each policy on the entire yield curve. I then match the change that the model predicts would arise from a linear combination of the two shocks with the observed change in the yield curve in a high-frequency window around Federal Reserve announcements, allowing me to identify the separate contributions of each shock to the effects of the announcement. My estimates correspond closely to narrative elements of the FOMC announcements. My estimates imply that forward guidance was more important in influencing inflation, while LSAP was more important in influencing output.




Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates


Book Description

This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and analyze the determination of term premiums and expectations of future short-term interest rates in a sample spanning more than two decades. Empirical findings suggest that the LSAP has effectively lowered the long-term Treasury bond yields, through both "signaling" and "portfolio balance" channels. On the other hand, the Fed's "forward guidance" also leads to gradual extension of market projections for the duration of the LSAP program, thereby enhancing the LSAP's effect to keep term premiums low. Estimation results also reveal a diminished effectiveness of the LSAP during QE III. Finally, model simulations underscore the importance of policy transparency in minimizing unnecessary market turbulence and ensuring a timely and smooth exit of the unconventional monetary policy stimulus.




Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets


Book Description

I extend the methods of Gurkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005) to separately identify the effects of Federal Reserve forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) during the 2009-15 U.S. zero lower bound (ZLB) period. I find that both forward guidance and LSAPs had substantial and highly statistically significant effects on medium-term Treasury yields, stock prices, and exchange rates, comparable in magnitude to the effects of the federal funds rate before the ZLB. Forward guidance was more effective than LSAPs at moving short-term Treasury yields, while LSAPs were more effective than forward guidance and the federal funds rate at moving longer-term Treasury yields, corporate bond yields, and interest rate uncertainty. However, the effects of forward guidance were not very persistent, with a half-life of 1-4 months. The effects of LSAPs seem to be more persistent. I conclude that, overall in terms of these criteria, LSAPs were a more effective policy tool than forward guidance during the ZLB period.







The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions


Book Description

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.




U.S. and Euro Area Monetary and Fiscal Interactions During the Pandemic: A Structural Analysis


Book Description

This paper employs a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the changes in monetary policy frameworks and the fiscal support in the U.S. and euro area during the pandemic. Moving from a previous target of “below, but close to 2 percent” to a formal symmetric inflation targeting regime in the euro area or from flexible to average inflation targeting in the U.S. is shown to boost output and inflation in both regions. Meanwhile, the fiscal packages approved in the U.S. and the euro area, and a slower withdrawal of fiscal support in the euro area, have a similar impact on output and inflation as changing the monetary policy frameworks . Simultaneously implementing these policies is mutually reinforcing, but insufficient to fully explain the unexpected increase in core inflation during 2021.




Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?


Book Description

This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.




Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic


Book Description

This book focuses on the recovery and new normal in a post-Covid scenario, drawing important lessons from the pandemic and proposing new ideas for sustainable development, endogenous dynamism, and inclusive growth. The book presents different ideas and perspectives about the present and the future, reflecting on four main fields of our economic reality: macroeconomics, governments, technology, and society. It discusses important topics for future economic scenarios, beginning with an estimation of the economic consequences of the absence of an equitable distribution of vaccines. Further topics discussed include the government’s debts sustainability, the probability of an inflation/deflation or of a stagflation scenario, as well as the impact of US and European economic policies on economic growth. The book further investigates the economic costs of the pandemic, which have fallen most heavily on those least able to bear them. It examines governments subsidies, which supported people and firms through wage subsidies, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures, and discusses the question of whether more investment in health care, education, and other public services will still be needed. In a time of immense change and global challenges, this book is a must-read for scholars, researchers, and students of economics, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of economic growth, energy, environment, migration, development, digital transformation, and demography.




Negative Interest Rates


Book Description

This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.