Empirical Science of Financial Fluctuations


Book Description

Financial fluctuations were generally neglected in classical ecnomics and their basic statistical properties have only recently been elucidated in the emerging field of econophysics, a new science that analyzes data using methods developed by statistical physics, such as chaos, fractals, and phase transitions. This volume is the proceedings of a workshop at which leading international researchers in this discipline discussed their most recent results and examined the validity of the empirical laws of econophysics. Topics include stock market prices and foreign exchange rates, income distribution, market anomalies, and risk management. The papers herein relate econophysics to other models, present new models, and illustrate the mechanisms by which financial fluctuations occur using actual financial data. Containing the most recent econophysics results, this volume will serve as an indispensable reference for economic theorists and practitioners alike.







Empirical Asset Pricing


Book Description

An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.




Political Arithmetic


Book Description

We take for granted today that the assessments, measurements, and forecasts of economists are crucial to the decision-making of governments and businesses alike. But less than a century ago that wasn’t the case—economists simply didn’t have the necessary information or statistical tools to understand the ever more complicated modern economy. With Political Arithmetic, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Fogel and his collaborators tell the story of economist Simon Kuznets, the founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the creation of the concept of GNP, which for the first time enabled us to measure the performance of entire economies. The book weaves together the many strands of political and economic thought and historical pressures that together created the demand for more detailed economic thinking—Progressive-era hopes for activist government, the production demands of World War I, Herbert Hoover’s interest in business cycles as President Harding’s commerce secretary, and the catastrophic economic failures of the Great Depression—and shows how, through trial and error, measurement and analysis, economists such as Kuznets rose to the occasion and in the process built a discipline whose knowledge could be put to practical use in everyday decision-making. The product of a lifetime of studying the workings of economies and skillfully employing the tools of economics, Political Arithmetic is simultaneously a history of a key period of economic thought and a testament to the power of applied ideas.




Human Capital


Book Description

A diverse array of factors may influence both earnings and consumption; however, this work primarily focuses on the impact of investments in human capital upon an individual's potential earnings and psychic income. For this study, investments in human capital include such factors as educational level, on-the-job skills training, health care, migration, and consideration of issues regarding regional prices and income. Taking into account varying cultures and political regimes, the research indicates that economic earnings tend to be positively correlated to education and skill level. Additionally, studies indicate an inverse correlation between education and unemployment. Presents a theoretical overview of the types of human capital and the impact of investment in human capital on earnings and rates of return. Then utilizes empirical data and research to analyze the theoretical issues related to investment in human capital, specifically formal education. Considered are such issues as costs and returns of investments, and social and private gains of individuals. The research compares and contrasts these factors based upon both education and skill level. Areas of future research are identified, including further analysis of issues regarding social gains and differing levels of success across different regions and countries. (AKP).




Introduction to Econophysics


Book Description

This book concerns the use of concepts from statistical physics in the description of financial systems. The authors illustrate the scaling concepts used in probability theory, critical phenomena, and fully developed turbulent fluids. These concepts are then applied to financial time series. The authors also present a stochastic model that displays several of the statistical properties observed in empirical data. Statistical physics concepts such as stochastic dynamics, short- and long-range correlations, self-similarity and scaling permit an understanding of the global behaviour of economic systems without first having to work out a detailed microscopic description of the system. Physicists will find the application of statistical physics concepts to economic systems interesting. Economists and workers in the financial world will find useful the presentation of empirical analysis methods and well-formulated theoretical tools that might help describe systems composed of a huge number of interacting subsystems.




Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture


Book Description

"The challenges facing agriculture are plenty. Along with the world's growing population and diminishing amounts of water and arable land, the gradual increase in severe weather presents new challenges and imperatives for producing new, more resilient crops to feed a more crowded planet in the twenty-first century. Innovation has historically helped agriculture keep pace with earth's social, population, and ecological changes. In the last 50 years, mechanical, biological, and chemical innovations have more than doubled agricultural output while barely changing input quantities. The ample investment behind these innovations was available because of a high rate of return: a 2007 paper found that the median ROI in agriculture was 45 percent between 1965 and 2005. This landscape has changed. Today many of the world's wealthier countries have scaled back their share of GDP devoted to agricultural R&D amid evidence of diminishing returns. Universities, which have historically been a major source of agricultural innovation, increasingly depend on funding from industry rather than government to fund their research. As Upton Sinclair wrote of the effects industry influences, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." In this volume of the NBER Conference Report series, editor Petra Moser offers an empirical, applied-economic framework to the different elements of agricultural R&D, particularly as they relate to the shift from public to private funding. Individual chapters examine the sources of agricultural knowledge and investigate challenges for measuring the returns to the adoption of new agricultural technologies, examine knowledge spillovers from universities to agricultural innovation, and explore interactions between university engagement and scientific productivity. Additional analysis of agricultural venture capital point to it as an emerging and future source of resource in this essential domain"--




Practical Fruits of Econophysics


Book Description

Some economic phenomena are predictable and controllable, and some are impos sible to foresee. Existing economic theories do not provide satisfactory answers as to what degree economic phenomena can be predicted and controlled, and in what situations. Against this background, people working on the financial front lines in real life have to rely on empirical rules based on experiments that often lack a solid foundation. "Econophysics" is a new science that analyzes economic phenomena empirically from a physical point of view, and it is being studied mainly to offer scientific, objective and significant answers to such problems. This book is the proceedings of the third Nikkei symposium on ''Practical Fruits of Econophysics," held in Tokyo, November 9-11, 2004. In the first symposium held in 2000, empirical rules were established by analyzing high-frequency finan cial data, and various kinds of theoretical approaches were confimied. In the second symposium, in 2002, the predictability of imperfections and of economic fluctua tions was discussed in detail, and methods for applying such studies were reported. The third symposium gave an overview of practical developments that can immedi ately be applied to the financial sector, or at least provide hints as to how to use the methodology.




Volatility Trading


Book Description

Popular guide to options pricing and position sizing for quant traders In this second edition of this bestselling book, Sinclair offers a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach, he guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. This new edition includes new chapters on the dynamics of realized and implied volatilities, trading the variance premium and using options to trade special situations in equity markets. Filled with volatility models including brand new option trades for quant traders Options trader Euan Sinclair specializes in the design and implementation of quantitative trading strategies Volatility Trading, Second Edition + Website outlines strategies for defining a true edge in the market using options to trade volatility profitably.




Statistical Properties in Firms’ Large-scale Data


Book Description

This is the first book to provide a systematic description of statistical properties of large-scale financial data. Specifically, the power-law and log-normal distributions observed at a given time and their changes using time-reversal symmetry, quasi-time-reversal symmetry, Gibrat's law, and the non-Gibrat's property observed in a short-term period are derived here. The statistical properties observed over a long-term period, such as power-law and exponential growth, are also derived. These subjects have not been thoroughly discussed in the field of economics in the past, and this book is a compilation of the author's series of studies by reconstructing the data analyses published in 15 academic journals with new data. This book provides readers with a theoretical and empirical understanding of how the statistical properties observed in firms’ large-scale data are related along the time axis. It is possible to expand this discussion to understand theoretically and empirically how the statistical properties observed among differing large-scale financial data are related. This possibility provides readers with an approach to microfoundations, an important issue that has been studied in economics for many years.