Employment Dynamics and Labor Market Policies in Brazil


Book Description

A book for policy makers, development institutions, the academic community and more: A wide spectrum of stakeholders engaged in labor market policy making in Brazil and beyond is the intended audience for this book. It is written in language intended to be also accessible to those who are neither academics nor specialists in the field. Each chapter is based on one background paper that provides technical details on the data and methodology. The book is based on a thorough examination of the Brazilian labor market and has lessons and insights for other developing countries. The book's objective is to present evidence to better understand the dynamics of employment, evaluate the impact of labor market programs, and contribute to the debate on the need to further integrate different labor market policies in times of fiscal consolidation. Such evidence is highly relevant in light of the labor policy decisions to be made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.




Sustaining Employment and Wage Gains in Brazil


Book Description

Continued social and economic progress in Brazil will depend on high employment, sustained labor productivity and income growth, and opportunities for the poor and disadvantaged to upgrade their own productivity and convert it into sustainable incomes.




Spatial Dynamics of Labor Markets in Brazil


Book Description

There was substantial spatial variation in labor market outcomes in Brazil over the 1990's. In 2000, about one fifth of workers lived in apparently economically stagnant municipios where real wages declined but employment increased faster than the national population growth rate. More than one third lived in apparently dynamic municipios experiencing both real wage growth and faster-than-average employment growth; these areas absorbed more than half of net employment growth over the period. To elucidate this spatial variation, we estimated spatial labor supply and demand equations describing wage and employment changes of Brazilian municípios. We used Conley's spatial GMM technique to allow for instrumental variable estimation in the presence of spatially autocorrelated errors. Chief findings include: a very strong influence of initial workforce educational levels on subsequent wage growth (controlling for possibly confounding variables such as remoteness and climate); evidence of positive spillover effects of own-municipio growth onto neighbors' wage and employment levels; an exodus from farming areas; relatively elastic response of wages to an increase in labor supply; and evidence of a local multiplier effect from government transfers.







Jobs and Growth


Book Description

Brazil approaches its 2018 election with an economy that is gradually recovering from the deepest recession in its recent economic history. However, for many Brazilians, the recovery has not yet translated into new and better jobs, or rising incomes. This book explores the drivers of future employment and income growth. Its key finding: Brazil needs to dramatically improve its performance across all industries in terms of productivity if the country is to provide better jobs for its citizens and generate lasting gains in incomes growth for all. This is particularly important as Brazil is aging rapidly and the boost the country has enjoyed thanks to its young and growing labor force in the past decades will disappear in just a few years’ time. The book recommends a change in the relationship between the state and business, from rewarding privileged incumbents to fostering competition and innovation—together with supporting workers and firms to adjust to the demands of the market. The book is addressed to all scholars and students of Brazil’s economy, especially those interested in why the country’s economic performance has not kept up with earlier achievements since the reintroduction of democracy in the mid-1980s. Its conclusions are urgent and pertinent but also optimistic. With the right policy mix, Brazil could enter the third century of its independence in 2022 well on track to join the ranks of high income countries.




Spatial Dynamics of Labor Markets in Brazil


Book Description

There was substantial spatial variation in labor market outcomes in Brazil over the 1990s. In 2000, about one-fifth of workers lived in apparently economically stagnant municipios where real wages declined but employment increased faster than the national population growth rate. More than one-third lived in apparently dynamic municipios, experiencing both real wage growth and faster-than-average employment growth. These areas absorbed more than half of net employment growth over the period. To elucidate this spatial variation, the authors estimate spatial labor supply and demand equations describing wage and employment changes of Brazilian municipios. They use Conley's spatial GMM technique to allow for instrumental variable estimation in the presence of spatially autocorrelated errors. The main findings include: (1) a very strong influence of initial workforce educational levels on subsequent wage growth (controlling for possibly confounding variables such as remoteness and climate); (2) evidence of positive spillover effects of own-municipio growth onto neighbors' wage and employment levels; (3) an exodus from farming areas; (4) relatively elastic response of wages to an increase in labor supply; and (5) evidence of a local multiplier effect from government transfers.




Three Essays on Labor Market Dynamics in Brazil


Book Description

In the first essay, we use linked employer-employee data for the formal labor market in Brazil to examine the relative importance of firm age and firm size for job creation and destruction in Brazil. We find that firm age is a more important determinant of job creation in Brazil than is firm size; young firms and firm start-ups create a relatively high number of jobs in Brazil. We also find that young firms are more likely to exit the market and have higher levels of employment volatility. We, therefore, condition the job creation analysis on job stability and find that young firms and large firms create most of the stable jobs in Brazil. In the second essay, I analyze the impact of a trade shock on gender-specific local labor market outcomes in Brazil. I use an instrumental variable approach and linked employer-employee data to estimate the effect of both increased imports from China and exports to China on labor market outcomes in Brazil. Exports to China increase female employment growth in both the traded sector and the non-traded sector. Increased trade with China also increases female wage growth in both sectors; however, this does not translate to any improvements in the average wage ratio. In the third and final essay, we analyze the effect of the China trade shock on labor market reallocation and migration in Brazil. Microregions more exposed to exports to China experienced higher migration rates, but those more exposed to imports from China experienced lower migration rates. Additionally, workers employed in microregions more exposed to increased imports are: (1) less likely to transition from the traded sector to nonemployment, but (2) more likely to transition from nonemployment to the nontraded sector. However, we do not find many significant effects of export exposure on labor reallocation across industries or nonemployment.




Unequal Development and Labour in Brazil


Book Description

This book is about unequal development and labour in Brazil, with particular reference to the economic and social development of the Northeast region, which has suffered persistent disadvantage. It combines a historical approach, which shows how economic, social and political institutions have been restructured over time, with an analysis of changes in the pattern of production, employment, unemployment and inequality up to the present day. It draws on detailed case studies to examine the connections between local and national production systems and critical labour market outcomes such as informality in employment, precarious work and disparities between genders, races and regions. The case of the Brazilian Northeast illustrates processes, relationships and policy debates that are important not only in Brazil but also elsewhere. The book will be of interest to teachers, researchers and students in economics, sociology, labour and development; public officials and policy-makers; the international development community; and the general public interested in Latin American affairs. They will find in the book an original and systematic analysis of the factors underlying unequal development and how they respond to different policy regimes and suggestions about the issues that need to be addressed in the future.




The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil


Book Description

We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.