Book Description

Electrical energy supply and demand forecasts for the Pacific Northwest region vary significantly depending on the assumptions, scenarios, and the forecasting methodology used. Unpredictable aspects of energy supply include (a) construction delays in proposed thermal power plants; (b) unexpected outages in existing thermal power plants; and (c) changing water and streamflow conditions effecting hydropower plants productivity. Forecasts of electricity demand (load forecasting) must consider hundreds of variables, most importantly population, personal income, number of households and energy prices. These factors, when applied to different forecast models, cause a variety of divergent results. In this booklet, five Pacific Northwest load forecasts are described, analyzed and compared. They are the (1) Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee/west group area (PNUCC/West Group); (2) Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee econometric forecast, (PNUCC/Econometric); (3) Northwest Energy Policy Project forecast, (NEPP); (4) Washington State University 'Energy projections for the Pacific Northwest', (WSU); and (5) National Resources Defense Council Forecast (NRDC). Input assumptions and forecasting methods (trend analysis, end use analysis and econometrics) used for each projection are analyzed in light of the influence they have on the resulting forecast. (Author).