Essays on Identification and Estimation of Structural Economic Models


Book Description

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study the identification and estimation of structural economic models. Chapter 1, "Identification and Estimation of Nonseparable Triangular Equations with Mismeasured Instruments" studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of the marginal effect of an endogenous variable X on the outcome variable Y , given a potentially mismeasured instrument variable W∗, without assuming linearity or separability of the functions governing the relationship between observables and unobservables. In order to address the challenges arising from the co-existence of measurement error and nonseparability, I first employ the deconvolution technique from the measurement error literature to identify the joint distribution of Y,X,W∗ using two error-laden measurements of W∗. I then recover the structural derivative of the function of interest and the "Local Average Response" (LAR) from the joint distribution via the "unobserved instrument" approach in Matzkin (2016). I also propose nonparametric estimators for these parameters and derive their uniform rates of convergence. Monte Carlo exercises show evidence that the estimators I propose have goodfinite sample performance. Chapter 2, "Two-step Estimation of Network Formation Models with Unobserved Heterogeneities and Strategic Interactions", characterizes the network formation process as a static game of incomplete information, where the latent payoff of forming a link between two individuals depends on the structure of the network, as well as private information on agents' attributes. I allow agents' private unobserved attributes to be correlated with observed attributes through individual fixed effects. Using data from a single large network, I propose a two-step estimator for the model primitives. In the first step, I estimate agents' equilibrium beliefs of other people's choice probabilities. In the second step, I plug in the first-step estimator to the conditional choice probability expression and estimate the model parameters and the unobserved individual fixed effects together using Joint MLE. Assuming that the observed attributes are discrete, I showed that the first step estimator is uniformly consistent with rate N−1/4, where N is the total number of linking proposals. I also show that the second-step estimator converges asymptotically to a normal distribution at the same rate. Chapter 3, "Identification and Estimation in Differentiated Products Markets Where Firms Affect Consumers' Attention" studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of a demand and supply system where firms affect consumers' consideration sets via costly marketing inputs, when market-level data is available. On the demand side, I characterize preferences and considerations nonparametrically, allowing rich heterogeneities and correlations between them. On the supply side, I characterize firms' optimal choices by a set of first-order conditions without specifying the form of the oligopoly model. The demand and supply sides form a simultaneous system of equations in the spirit of Berry and Haile (2014). I then show the identification of the system using the method proposed by Matzkin (2015). Moreover, using the variations of exclusive regressors entering preferences and considerations respectively, I separately identify features of the utility functions and the attention functions. Based on the constructive identification results, I propose nonparametric estimators of the demand, utility, and attention functions and show their asymptotic properties.







Essays on the Identification and Estimation of Network Models


Book Description

This dissertation consists of three main chapters that study social interactions in networks. In Chapter 1, I study a market with many-to-many contracts when the number of market participants increases. Many-to-many contracts allow a seller to trade with multiple buyers and a buyer to trade with multiple sellers. I focus on investigating the identification of payoff parameters through data observed from equilibrium matches in a large many-to-many matching market. In many-to-many matching markets, several issues have to be addressed: bias would arise since the outcomes are only observed when links are formed between two agents, and the maximum number of relationships an agent can enter into would possibly affect the set of stable outcomes. I show that under certain conditions, the number of firms (workers) that are willing to be matched to a specific worker (firm) grows at a rate regardless of the capacity of both sides. Furthermore, I show a correspondence between the stable matching outcomes in a many-to-many matching framework and that in a one-to-one matching framework. In Chapter 2, I conduct a structural econometric analysis of the diffusion process with players who observe their neighbors and make decisions based on their neighbors' decisions. I study the identification and estimation of diffusion processes in social and economic networks. Compared to the classic econometric diffusion literature that assumes a continuous population with a stochastic network structure, I provide a new econometric framework to analyze diffusion processes in fixed networks where Bayesian players observe their close neighbors. I demonstrate the existence of the equilibrium of the model and characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium. Based on these theoretical findings, I propose a consistent and tractable two-step estimator for payoff parameters using feasible data from a single large network. I evaluate the finite sample performance using Monte Carlo simulations. Chapter 3 applies the network diffusion model to data on the participation of a microfinance program in Indian villages to describe the impact of neighbors on individual decisions. Our model allows us to study the various network effect across different types of agents who care about their neighbors' opinions. It depends on unknown equilibrium beliefs, which specify agents' expectations about their neighbors' decisions. Using participation data from 43 villages, each including about 200 villagers, I estimate these equilibrium beliefs and the network effects.




Essays on Identification, Estimation and Inference of Economic Models with Testable Assumptions


Book Description

I study identification, estimation, and hypothesis testing in complete and incomplete economic models with testable assumptions. Testable assumptions ($A$) give strong and interpretable empirical content to the model but they also carry the possibility that some distribution of observed outcomes may reject these assumptions. A natural way to avoid this is to find a set of relaxed assumptions ($\tilde{A}$) that cannot be rejected by any distribution of observed outcomes and such that the identified set for the parameter of interest is not changed when the original assumption holds. The main contribution of this thesis is to characterize the properties of such a relaxed assumption $\tilde{A}$ using notions of refutability and confirmability. In Chapter 1, I establish the theoretical framework for analyzing econometric structures and econometric assumptions. This framework unifies the theory of identification of complete economic structures and the theory of refutability. I propose a general method to construct such $\tilde{A}$. A general estimation and inference procedure is proposed and can be applied to a large class of incomplete economic models. I apply my methodology to the instrument monotonicity assumption in Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) estimation and to the sector selection assumption in a binary outcome Roy model of employment sector choice. In the LATE application, I use my general method to construct a set of relaxed assumptions $\tilde{A}$ that can never be rejected, and the identified set for LATE is unchanged when $A$ holds. LATE is point identified under my extension $\tilde{A}$ in the application. I also provide an estimation and inference method on the LATE value. In Chapter 2, I generalize the framework to incomplete economic structures. I show that the general method for constructing a relaxed assumption in Chapter 1 may fail to work in incomplete economic structures. Therefore, I propose a completion procedure that is without loss of generality. With this completion procedure, we can get completed economic structures, and the method in Chapter 1 can be applied. I then look at the application to a binary outcome Roy model. I use my method to relax Roy's sector selection assumption and characterize the identified set for the binary potential outcomes as a polyhedron. In Chapter 3, I propose a dilation estimation and inference method that can be applied to a wide class of complete and incomplete economic structures. My method can easily deal with an observed variable that is of dimension greater than two.




Economic Models, Estimation and Risk Programming


Book Description

Economic models and applications; Estimation of econometric models; Stochastic programming methods in economic models.




Essays on Nonparametric and High-Dimensional Econometrics


Book Description

This dissertation studies questions related to identification, estimation, and specification testing of nonparametric and high-dimensional econometric models. The thesis is composed by two chapters. In Chapter 1, I propose specification tests for two formally distinct but related classes of econometric models: (1) semiparametric conditional moment restriction models dependent on conditional expectation functions, and (2) a class of high-dimensional unconditional moment restriction models dependent on high-dimensional best linear predictors. These classes may be motivated by economic models in which agents make choices under uncertainty and therefore have to predict payoff-relevant variables such as the behavior of other agents. The proposed tests are shown to be both asymptotically correctly sized and consistent. Moreover, I establish a bound on the rate of local alternatives for which the test for high-dimensional unconditional moment restriction models is consistent. These results allow researchers to test the specification of their models without introducing additional parametric, typically ad hoc, assumptions on expectations. In Chapter 2, I show that it is possible to identify and estimate a generalized panel regression model (GPRM) without imposing any parametric structure on (1) the function of observable explanatory variables, (2) the systematic function through which the function of observable explanatory variables, fixed effect, and disturbance term generate the outcome variable, or (3) the distribution of unobservables. I proceed with estimation using a series maximum rank correlation estimator (SMRCE) of the function of observable explanatory variables and provide conditions under which L2-consistency is achieved. I also provide conditions under which both L2 and uniform convergence rates of the SMRCE may be derived.




Essays in Structural Econometrics


Book Description

The first chapter develops a general framework for models, static or dynamic, in which agents simultaneously make both discrete and continuous choices. I show that such models are nonparametrically identified. Based on the constructive identification arguments, I build a novel twostep estimation method in the lineage of Hotz and Miller (1993) but extended to discrete and continuous choice models. The method is especially attractive for complex dynamic models because it significantly reduces the computational burden associated with their estimation. To illustrate my new method, I estimate a dynamic micro-model of female labor supply and consumption. The method is also illustrated in the third chapter of the thesis. In the second chapter, I build a dynamic search model to examine the decision problem of a homeowner who maximizes her expected profit from the sale of her property when market conditions are uncertain. Using a large dataset of real estate transactions in Pennsylvania between 2011and 2014, I verify several stylized facts about the housing market. I develop a dynamic search model of the home-selling problem in which the homeowner learns about demand in a Bayesian way. I estimate the model and find that learning, especially the downward adjustment of the beliefs of sellers facing low demand, explains some of the key features of the housing data, such as the decreasing list price overtime and time on the market. By comparing with a perfect information benchmark, I derive an unexpected result: the value of information is not always positive. Indeed, an imperfectly informed seller facing low demand can obtain a better outcome than her perfectly informed counterpart thanks to a delusively stronger bargaining position. In the third chapter, joint work with Thierry Magnac, we estimate a dynamic discrete and continuous choices model of households' decisions regarding their consumption, housing tenure and housing services over the life-cycle. We use non-parametric identification arguments as in the first chapter to formulate an empirical strategy in two steps that (1) estimates discrete choice probabilities and continuous choices distribution summaries to be used in (2) Bellman and Euler equations that estimate the structural parameters. Specific modelling strategies are adopted because of unfrequent mobility due to housing transaction costs. Counterfactuals that can be evaluated are related to those transaction costs as well as of prudential policies such as down payments.




Three Essays on Trend Analysis and Misspecification in Structural Econometric Models


Book Description

The purpose of this research has been to look into several econometric issues of concern to researchers doing applied work in macroeconomics. The first essay looks at Bureau of Economic Analysis data on inventories and sales of finished goods often used in studies of inventory behavior. Applying recently developed methods, the series are rigorously tested to determine their stationarity properties. Results indicate that neither first differencing nor linearly detrending the data is appropriate. For most series a trend function with one or more breaks offers a better fit and also generates stationarity. The results are used to determine the impact on estimation in a simple production-smoothing model of inventory behavior. The impact of different trend specifications on univariate forecasting of inventories is also considered. The second essay considers an alternative method of detrending time series data -- the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Previous research has shown that HP filtering can have serious adverse consequences when used to analyze co-movements between data series at business cycle frequencies. Despite this, the filter has also been used to induce stationarity in a data series prior to estimation of structural econometric models. Little work has been done in analyzing the possible effects this may have on parameter estimates from such models. A simulation study is conducted to assess the impact of HP filtering on parameter estimation and a comparison is made to other detrending methods. It is shown that the HP filter induces bias in the parameter estimates and also increases the root mean squared error of the estimates from the simulations. In addition, there is some adverse impact on the size of certain test statistics. The final essay looks at the impact of misspecification on estimation results from a structural econometric model when using a Generalized Method of Moments estimator. Simulated data consistent with a particular specification of the.







Structural Econometric Models


Book Description

This volume focuses on recent developments in the use of structural econometric models in empirical economics. The first part looks at recent developments in the estimation of dynamic discrete choice models. The second part looks at recent advances in the area empirical matching models.