Essays on the Macroeconomic Effects of Inequality


Book Description

This dissertation explores the aggregate allocational effects of different forms of economic inequality. Its three chapters study how an uneven distribution of production factors and financial resources, coupled with different forms of bureaucratic hurdles to the development of business ideas, financial constraints, or credit shocks, can affect the distribution and productivity of firms, the composition of the demand for goods and services, or the creation of valuable worker-firm matches in an economy. Even though it becomes clear throughout the dissertation that eliminating as many frictions in the firm-creation process, putting in place different redistribution policies, and alleviating financial frictions in an economy all have great effects on the aggregate economy that were not completely understood in previous theories, the welfare effects of such policies remain a subject for study in future work.




Poverty, Inequality and Development


Book Description

This collection of essays honors a remarkable man and his work. Erik Thorbecke has made significant contributions to the microeconomic and the macroeconomic analysis of poverty, inequality and development, ranging from theory to empirics and policy. The essays in this volume display the same range. As a collection they make the fundamental point that deep understanding of these phenomena requires both the micro and the macro perspectives together, utilizing the strengths of each but also the special insights that come when the two are linked together. After an overview section which contains the introductory chapter and a chapter examining the historical roots of Erik Thorbecke's motivations, the essays in this volume are grouped into four parts, each part identifying a major strand of Erik's work—Measurement of Poverty and Inequality, Micro Behavior and Market Failure, SAMs and CGEs, and Institutions and Development. The range of topics covered in the essays, written by leading authorities in their own areas, highlight the extraordinary depth and breadth of Erik Thorbecke's influence in research and policy on poverty, inequality and development. Acknowledgements These papers were presented at a conference in honor of Erik Thorbecke held at Cornell University on October 10-11, 2003. The conference was supported by the funds of the H. E. Babcock Chair in Food, Nutrition and Public Policy, and the T. H. Lee Chair in World Affairs at Cornell University.




Essays on Macroeconomic Policies and Redistribution


Book Description

"The general objective of the doctoral thesis is to evaluate the distributive effects of macroeconomic policies. In particular, the thesis assesses the distributional impact of fiscal policy, conventional and unconventional monetary policies. The distributive effect of fiscal policy is examined by analyzing the interrelations among economic growth, income inequality, and fiscal performance based on the evidence from the Anglo-Saxon countries. These interrelations are analyzed jointly in a system by examining also transmission channels among them. All the variables are regarded as endogenous within the framework of the structural vector autoregression methodology. This allows exploring dynamic interactions among the variables and feedback effects on each other through impulse response functions. In addition, the thesis provides new evidence on interrelations among economic growth, income inequality, and fiscal performance by employing the longest possible consistently measured data on income inequality on a country basis. The obtained results show that there are differences in the obtained results for the countries. Particularly, income inequality has negative effect on economic growth in the case of the UK while its effect is positive in the cases of the USA and Canada. The increase in inequality worsens fiscal performance for all the countries. Government spending reduces income inequality in the UK but it raises inequality in the USA and Canada. In addition, the results also indicate that tax revenues generally raise income inequality in all the considered countries. Thus, the measures of the fiscal policy channel are important tools to consider in the design of the policies to decrease inequality. The academic literature generally views fiscal policy as a measure to address growing income inequality, which is a widespread concern nowadays. Although the income distribution could also be affected by monetary policy, the distributive effects of monetary policy have not broadly been discussed in the literature. Taking this into account, the thesis contributes to the discussion in this research area by evaluating the effect of monetary policy on income inequality. The distributional effect of monetary policy is estimated in the case of the USA, where the dynamics in income inequality has mainly been driven by the variation in the upper end of distribution since early 1980's. Consequently, the thesis uses an inequality measure that represents the whole distribution of income. To identify a monetary policy shock, the thesis employs contemporaneous identification with ex-ante identified monetary policy shocks as well as log run identification. In particular, a cointegration relation has been determined among the considered variables and the vector error correction methodology has been applied for the identification of the monetary policy shock. The obtained results indicate that contractionary monetary policy decreases the overall income inequality in the country. These results could have important implications for the design of policies to reduce income inequality by giving more weight to monetary policy. In the wake of the global financial crisis, central banks have generally begun to implement unconventional monetary policy together with conventional policy measures. There are already numerous studies on the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures on financial market as well as on their macroeconomic effect. However, the distributive effect of unconventional monetary policy has not essentially been examined yet. The thesis fills this gap by evaluating the distributive impact of unconventional monetary policy in comparison with the distributional effect of conventional monetary policy. The distributional effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies are evaluated for the USA. The distributive impact of conventional monetary policy is explored through contractionary policy shocks. At the same time, the distributional effect of unconventional monetary policy is studied via expansionary policy shocks. The obtained results indicate that conventional monetary policy reduces income inequality while unconventional monetary policy raises it. In particular, the distributive impact of conventional monetary policy is stronger. The results also show that the both conventional and unconventional monetary policies significantly affect the upper part of income distribution. While conventional monetary policy does not significantly affect the lower part of income distribution, unconventional monetary policy has still a significant impact on it. In addition, the implemented variance decomposition analysis assesses the relative importance of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the variation of Gini index of income inequality. The obtained results indicate that the unconventional monetary policy shock explains the higher share of the variation in Gini index than the conventional monetary policy shock."--TDX.




Inequality, Mobility, and Segregation


Book Description

Contains 15 papers, which were presented at the Fourth Meeting of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, Catania, Sicily, July 2011. This title includes measuring segregation, welfare and liberty, the use of influence functions in distributional analysis, and the axiomatic approach to multidimensional inequality.




Essays on Inequality, Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Policies


Book Description

This thesis consists of three chapters on inequality, interest rates and macroeconomic policies. The first chapter explores the macroeconomic consequences of the recent rise in permanent income inequality. First, I show that in many common macroeconomic models consumption is a linear function of permanent (labor) income. This implies that macroeconomic aggregates are neutral with respect to shifts in the distribution of permanent income. Motivated by this neutrality result, I develop novel approaches to test for linearity in U.S. household panel data. The estimates suggest an elasticity of 0.7, soundly rejecting linearity. I quantify the effects of this deviation from neutrality using a novel non-homothetic precautionary-savings model. In the model, the rise in U.S. permanent labor income inequality since the 1970s caused: (a) a decline in real interest rates of around 1%; (b) an increase in the wealth-to-GDP ratio of around 30%; (c) wealth inequality to rise almost as rapidly as it did in the data. The second chapter, joint with Sebastián Fanelli, develops a theory of foreign exchange interventions in a small open economy with limited capital mobility between home and foreign bond markets. Due to limited capital mobility, the central bank can implement nonzero bond spreads by managing its portfolio. Crucially, spreads are inherently costly as they allow foreign intermediaries to make carry-trade profits. Optimal interventions balance these costs with terms of trade benefits. We show that they lean against the wind of global capital flows to avoid excessive currency appreciation. Due to the convexity of the costs, interventions should be small and spread out, relying on credible promises (forward guidance) of future interventions. By contrast, excessive smoothing of the exchange rate path may create large spreads, inviting costly speculation. Finally, in a multi-country extension of our model, we find that the decentralized equilibrium features too much reserve accumulation and too low world interest rates, highlighting the importance of policy coordination. The third chapter, joint with Iván Werning, reconsiders the well-known Chamley-Judd result, according to which capital should not be taxed in the long run. For the main model in Judd (1985), we prove that the long run tax on capital is positive and significant, whenever the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is below one. The main model in Chamley (1986) imposes an upper bound on capital taxes. We provide conditions under which these constraints bind forever, implying positive long run taxes. When this is not the case, the long-run tax may be zero. However, if preferences are recursive and discounting is locally non-constant (e.g., not additively separable over time), a zero long-run capital tax limit must be accompanied by zero private wealth (zero tax base) or by zero labor taxes (first best). Finally, we explain why the equivalence of a positive capital tax with ever increasing consumption taxes does not provide a firm rationale against capital taxation.




Essays on the Macroeconomics of Inequality


Book Description

This thesis contains three essays on the macroeconomics of inequality. The first chapter analyses the effects of minimum wages on inequality. While there has been intense debate in the empirical literature about the effects of minimum wages on inequality in the US, its general equilibrium effects have been given little attention. In order to quantify the full effects of a decreasing minimum wage on inequality, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model, based on a two-sector growth model where the supply of high-skilled workers and the direction of technical change are endogenous. I find that a permanent reduction in the minimum wage leads to an expansion of low-skilled employment, which increases the incentives to acquire skills, thus changing the composition and size of high-skilled employment. These permanent changes in the supply of labour alter the investment ow into R & D, thereby decreasing the skill-bias of technology. The reduction in the minimum wage has spill-over effects on the entire distribution, affecting upper-tail inequality. Through a calibration exercise, I find that a 30 percent reduction in the real value of the minimum wage, as in the early 1980s, accounts for 15 percent of the subsequent rise in the skill premium, 18.5 percent of the increase in overall inequality, 45 percent of the increase in inequality in the bottom half, and 7 percent of the rise in inequality at the top half of the wage distribution. In the second chapter, I construct a model, where the supply of skills and the skill premium can increase jointly, as occurred in the US over the past few decades. I high- light the importance of the joint determination of the direction of technical change and skill formation. There is a positive feedback between these two variables. Technological progress is driven by profit oriented R & D firms, where profits are increasing in the amount of labour that is able to use these technologies. Therefore, when the supply of high-skilled 3labour increases, technology endogenously becomes more skill-biased. A more skill-biased technology leads to a higher skill premium, which increases the incentives to acquire educa- tion, and the supply of high-skilled labour rises. During the transition to the steady state, both quantities increase simultaneously. I map the dependence of the transition path of the economy on the initial skill supply and relative technology between the high- and the low-skilled sector. I find that, contrary to the previous literature, the skill premium and the skill supply can increase jointly even if the bias of technology is weak. In the third chapter, I relate the degree of progressivity of the income tax scheme to the prevailing income inequality in the society. I find that, consistent with the data, more unequal societies implement more progressive income tax systems. I build a model of political coalition formation, where different income groups have to agree on a tax scheme to finance the public good. I show that, the greater income inequality is, i.e. the further away the rich are from the rest of the population, the less able they are to credibly commit to participating in a coalition. Therefore, as income inequality rises, the rich are increasingly excluded from the design of the income tax scheme. Consequently, the rich bear a larger fraction of the public good, and the tax system becomes more progressive.




Essays on the Determinants of Income and Wealth Inequality in the United States


Book Description

This study investigates the relevant factors that drive income and wealth inequality in the United States with the aim of facilitating a better understanding of the dynamic relationships between inequality and key macroeconomic variables. This can serve as a prerequisite to the ability of policymakers to restrain the negative externalities associated with increasing inequality and implement measures to reduce the unexpected effects. The thesis consists of five independent papers corresponding to five chapters. As economic growth is a primary goal of every country and widely accepted tool for reducing economic inequality, our study starts with economic growth. The first paper examines the relationship between the U.S. per capita real GDP and income inequality over the period 1917 to 2012. The literature uncovers a complex set of interactions, which depends on the specific research method and sample, between inequality and economic growth and highlights the difficulty of capturing a definitive causal relationship. Inequality either promotes, retards, or does not affect growth. Most existing studies that examine the inequality-growth nexus exclusively utilize time-domain methods. We use wavelet analysis which allows the simultaneous examination of correlation and causality between the two series in both the time and frequency domains. We find robust evidence of positive correlation between the growth and inequality across frequencies. Yet, directions of causality vary across frequencies and evolve with time. In the time-domain, the time-varying nature of long-run causalities implies structural changes in the two series. These findings provide a more thorough picture of the relationship between the U.S. per capita real GDP and inequality measures over time and frequency, suggesting important implications for policy makers. Inflation targeting is a monetary policy where the central bank sets a specific inflation rate as its goal. The federal government spurs economic growth by adding liquidity, credit, and jobs to the economy and inflation stimulate the demand needed to drive economic growth. The second paper investigates the effects of the inflation rate on income inequality to see whether monetary policy and the resulting inflation rate can affect income inequality and improve the well-being of individuals. Our analysis relies on a cross-state panel for the United States over the 1976 to 2007 period to assess the relationship between income inequality and the inflation rate, employing a semiparametric instrument variable (IV) estimator. By using cross-state panel data, we minimize the problems associated with data comparability often encountered in cross-country studies related to income inequality. We find that the relationship depends on the level of the inflation rate. A positive relationship occurs only if the states exceed a threshold level of the inflation rate. Below this value, inflation rate lowers income inequality. The results suggest that a nonlinear relationship exists between income inequality and the inflation rate. The researchers also examine the relationship between income inequality and growth in personal income, since personal income exerts a large effect on consumer consumption, and since consumer spending drives much of the economy. The third paper investigates the causal relationship between personal income and income inequality in a panel data of 48 states for the period of 1929-2012. Although inequality rose almost everywhere between 1980 to present, some states and regions experienced substantially greater increases in inequality than did others. The decentralization allows different state level of policies, however, there is also a cross-state consistency in how those policies respond to the main economic shocks. Since U.S. states are subject to significant spatial effects given their high level of integration, ignoring cross-sectional dependency may lead to substantial bias and size distortions. We employ a causality methodology proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011), as it takes into account possible slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency in a multivariate panel. Evidence of bi-directional causal relationship exists for several inequality measures -- the Atkinson Index, Gini Coefficient, the Relative Mean Deviation, TheiliÌ8℗¿℗ưs entropy Index and Top 10% -- but no evidence of the causal relationship for the Top 1 % measure. Also, this paper finds state-specific causal relationships between personal income and inequality. The level of development of the United States is related to the sophistication of the financial structure which influences the ability to hedge against shocks and to loosen spending constraints. It leads us to investigate if the financial development affects income inequality in the U.S. In the fourth paper, we look into the role of financial development on U.S. state-level income inequality in a panel data of 50 states from 1976 to 2011. To our knowledge, this paper is the first regarding examining the role of financial development on U.S. state-level inequality. We analyze the data using Fixed Effect and Dynamic Fixed Effect regression. We also divide 50 states into two groups-states, with higher inequality measure and states with lower inequality measures than average of the cross-state average of the inequality, to examine the possible nonlinear impact of financial development on income inequality. We find robust results whereby financial development linearly increases income inequality for the 50 states. When we divide 50 states into two separate groups of higher and lower inequality states than the cross-state average inequality, the effect of financial development on income inequality appears non-linear. When financial development improves, the effect increases at an increasing rate for high income inequality states, whereas an inverted U-shaped relationship exists for low-income inequality states.




Economic Reforms, Growth and Inequality in Latin America


Book Description

Originally published in 2004. Growth, income distribution, and labour markets are issues of pivotal importance in the Latin American context. Examining unique theoretical issues and the empirical evidence, this book provides a critical analysis of the key elements of income distribution determinants, labour market functions, trade policies, and their interrelations. As the advance of globalization becomes seemingly unstoppable, this book provides an important reappraisal of the impact of this new phenomenon, and in particular, the pernicious impact it may have on income growth and distribution. The key objective of the volume is to integrate more fully the analysis of trade and labour market economists, in order to better understand the labour market and income distribution implications of globalization and international integration. Forty years after the early calls to appropriately investigate the micro foundations of macroeconomics, the separation of the two at the policy level is more damaging than ever before - particularly for developing regions; this volume therefore makes an important contribution at the theoretical and policy levels by bringing together macroeconomic and microeconomic analyses.




Essays on the Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction


Book Description

Poverty remains one of the most pressing issues of our time. Understanding the impact of macroeconomic policy on poverty through growth and distribution of income is of considerable interest and this is what I examine in this dissertation. In Chapter 1, 'The Arithmetic of the Poverty-Growth- Inequality Triangle-Evidence from States of India', I use an arithmetic approach to examine how growth and income distribution matter simultaneously to poverty reduction by separating changes in poverty into a growth and distribution component. The results indicate that the poor benefit more from increasing aggregate growth than reducing inequality. In fact, bulk of the poverty reduction is concentrated in a period which witnessed the steepest increase in inequality since the effect of growth on poverty was large enough to overturn the effect of adverse distributional changes. Also, there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the poverty reduction performances of states, in particular the growth elasticity of poverty. I examine this heterogeneity in Chapter 2, 'The Empirics of the Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle: Does High Initial Poverty Matter?- Evidence from Rural India'. The more equal the initial income distribution and the higher the initial level of development, the greater is the growth elasticity of poverty. This empirical analysis also examines the impact of initial poverty on the pace of poverty reduction via its impact on economic growth and growth elasticity of poverty. Initial poverty has no adverse impact on growth; however it may lower the growth elasticity of poverty slightly. Furthermore, I find evidence of poverty convergence. In Chapter 3, 'Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilility: Automatic Stabilizers Work, Always and Everywhere', I examine what can be done to protect the poor from macroeconomic shocks and volatility. Developed countries have in place in-built Counter cyclical automatic stabilizers to protect the poor from macroeconomic shocks and volatility and there is a vast literature on their effectiveness in reducing output volatility. Their effectiveness in developing countries has not been empirically validated. Using a sample of 49 countries, we estimate the impact of automatic stabilizers on output volatility and find that they strongly contribute to output stability regardless of the type of economy.




Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality


Book Description

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.