Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models Through Indirect Inference


Book Description

We propose as a tool for the estimation of stochastic volatility models two indirect inference estimators based on the choice of an autoregressive auxiliary model and an ARMA auxiliary model, respectively. These choices make the auxiliary parameter easy to estimate and at the same time allow the derivation of optimal indirect inference estimators. The results of some Monte Carlo experiments provide evidence that the indirect inference estimators perform well in finite sample, although less efficiently than Bayes and Simulated EM algorithms.










Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models


Book Description

This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.










Indirect Inference with Time Series Observed with Error


Book Description

We propose the indirect inference estimator as a consistent method to estimate the parameters of a structural model when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error by considering the noise as a structural feature. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased if the error is neglected. Instead, if the condition for identification is satisfied, the measurement error parameters can be estimated jointly with the structural ones leading to a consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimator. The issues of identification and misspecification of ME are discussed in detail. Based on the encompassing principle, we show that II can still be consistent for the parameters of interest when the conditional distribution of ME is misspecified, as long as the structural model for the observed series encompasses the auxiliary. We illustrate the reliability of this procedure in the estimation of stochastic volatility models based on realized volatility measures contaminated by microstructure noise. The empirical application stresses the importance of a realistic specification of the microstructure noise distribution to match the features of the observed log-returns at high frequencies.




Asymmetric Stable Stochastic Volatility Models


Book Description

This paper considers a stochastic volatility model featuring an asymmetric stable error distribution and a novel way of accounting for the leverage effect. We adopt simulation-based methods to address key challenges in parameter estimation, the filtering of time-varying volatility, and volatility forecasting. Specifically, we make use of the indirect inference method to estimate the static parameters, and the extremum Monte Carlo method to extract latent volatility. Both methods can be easily adapted to modifications of the model, such as having other distributions for the errors and other dynamic specifications for the volatility process. Illustrations are presented for a simulated dataset and for an empirical application to a time series of Bitcoin returns.







U-MIDAS


Book Description