Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband


Book Description

We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.




Estimating the Welfare Effects of Digital Infrastructure


Book Description

While much economic policy presumes that more information infrastructure yields higher economic returns, little empirical work measures the magnitudes of these returns. We examine investment by local exchange telephone companies in fiber optic cable, ISDN lines and signal seven software, infrastructure which plays an essential role in bringing digital technology to local telephone networks. We estimate the elasticity of the derived demand for infrastructure investment faced by local exchange companies, controlling for factors such as local economic activity and the political disposition of state regulators. Our model postulates a regulated profit maximizing local exchange firm and a regulatory agency with predetermined political leanings in favor of consumer prices or firm profits. The model accounts for variation in state regulation and local economic conditions. In all our estimates we find that consumer demand is sensitive to investment in modern infrastructure, particularly as represented by fiber optic cable. Our estimates imply that infrastructure investment is responsible for a substantial fraction of the recent growth in consumer surplus and business revenue in local telecommunication services.




The Social Rate of Return of Mobile Broadband Infrastructure Investment


Book Description

The social rate of return of mobile broadband infrastructure is an important indicator for informing the allocation of public and private capital to the telecommunications sector, yet no estimates are currently available in the literature. The consensus in the literature is that to estimate the social rate of return of infrastructure one must combine two components: first, the value added of the infrastructure to the economy (or numerator of the rate of return); and second, the incremental cost of infrastructure expansion.In recent years, significant literature has begun to accumulate measuring the output elasticity of broadband infrastructure (Vergara Cobos and Malasquez, 2023). Using cross-country panel data econometrics and micro-econometric approaches, reliable estimation of the marginal product associated with rising service penetration is possible. On the other hand, there has been substantial progress in modeling the global cost of mobile broadband infrastructure deployment (Oughton, 2023), enabling evaluation of system marginal cost at the country level. This paper brings both strands of the literature together to estimate the social rate of return for investments in (primarily) 4G mobile networks, adapting a methodology first used by Canning and Bennathan (2000) for the electricity and transport sectors. The paper contributes to the literature by exploring how both the marginal product and the marginal cost of mobile broadband infrastructure investment evolve as penetration rises. We enhance this previous method in two ways. Firstly, by estimating the causal effect of mobile broadband infrastructure on economic output (GDP) via a General Method of Moments - Instrumental Variable (GMM-IV) technique. Secondly, by calculating the marginal cost of mobile broadband infrastructure using demand forecasting and remote sensing, following Oughton (2023).The social rate of return of mobile broadband investment is of high importance because it informs the cost-benefit analysis of future investment policy decisions. Consistent with economic theory, the paper finds that the marginal product of mobile broadband infrastructure declines at higher levels of penetration, while the marginal cost increases. This leads to very high rates of return (40-60%) for investments at very low levels of penetration (10%), declining rapidly to modest rates of return (




Transforming Public Finance Through GovTech


Book Description

Digital divide across countries and within countries continues to persist and even increased when the quality of internet connection is considered. The note shows that many governments have not been able to harness the full potential of digitalization. Governments could play important role to facilitate digital adoption by intervening both on supply (investing in infrastructure) and demand side (increase internet affordability). The note also documents significant dividends from digital adoption for revenue collection and spending efficiency, and for outcomes in education, health and social safety nets. The note also emphasizes that digitalization is not a substitute for good governance and that comprehensive reform plans embedded in National Digital Strategies (NDS) combined with legal and institutional reforms are needed to ensure that governments can reap full benefits from digitalization and manage the risks appropriately.




Republic of Nauru


Book Description

Nauru faces structural challenges due to its small size and remoteness, and is highly dependent on imports. The narrow revenue base comprises fishing license fees, residual phosphate processing, and revenue from the Regional Processing Center (RPC). Nauru is vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, as the population inhabit in a narrow coastal area. The health and economic impact of the pandemic has been limited in Nauru, thanks to successful vaccination and containment strategies




The Economics and Regulation of Digitalisation


Book Description

Turkey offers an interesting case study, both when it comes to the practice and the regulation of digitalization, as it combines a Western economic and legal system with an emerging country approach to digitalization. This co-edited volume examines the history, policies, economics, and various regulations of digitalization in Turkey. The chapters provide a comprehensive overview of how digitalization has developed in Turkey and how digitalization has come to be regulated, inspired by EU legislation yet with a “Turkish touch”. It explores the take up of digitalization by industry, society, and government, before delving into examples from FinTech and cryptocurrency, to social media and e-commerce, and yielding lessons for comparable emerging countries. Covering all the relevant aspects of digitalization, this book will be of interest to academics and students, particularly to those with an interest in innovation, economics of digitalization, policy, and regulation.




Organizational Corruption, Crime and Covid-19


Book Description

Corruption often flourishes in times of uncertainty and crisis. When institutions and oversight are weak, and public trust low, corruption can thrive and undermine how societies respond to the crisis. Covid-19 brought this issue into sharp focus, and this book uncovers some of the problems experienced across the globe and, crucially, explains how organizations and countries can strengthen their anti-corruption systems to prevent problems in the future. The book has been created by the members of the United Nations Principles for Responsible Management Education group on anti-corruption and brings together top international experts to consolidate the lessons from the Covid-19 crisis in order to improve transparency, integrity, trust, and governance in the future. Cybersecurity and cybercrime related to the pandemic are a particular focus. These factors are essential to social and economic order. Practice-oriented, each chapter offers examples of methods, approaches, tools, and cases which can be used for anti-corruption teaching, policy, and corporate initiatives. With insights and cases from right across the globe, the book will be of interest to NGOs, policymakers, organizational leaders, students, and researchers looking to foster accountability, integrity, and transparency across organizations in times of crisis.




How Should Central Banks Explore Central Bank Digital Currency?


Book Description

Digitalization of the economy provides both challenges and opportunities. Central banks should ensure that they have the capacity to continue to meet their policy objectives in the digital age. It is in this context that central bank digital currency (CBDC) should be evaluated. If designed appropriately, CBDCs could allow central banks to modernize payment systems and future-proof central bank money as the pace and shape of digitalization continues to evolve. However, the decision to proceed with CBDC exploration and an eventual launch would need to be jurisdiction specific, depending on the degree of digitalization of the economy, the legal and regulatory frameworks, and the central bank’s internal capacity. This paper proposes a dynamic decision-making framework under which the central bank can make decisions under uncertainty. A phased and iterative approach could allow central banks to adjust the pace, scale, and scope of their CBDC projects as the domestic and international environment changes.




Broadband Access in the EU


Book Description

Broadband adoption and its applications have been found to affect economic growth, innovativeness, political representation and individual welfare. As such, network infrastructures are now central in the political agenda with modern economies largely dependent on the vast spillover effects of information services. The European Commission has set out its targets to improve the Union's infrastructure by 2020 and provide high quality services to all citizens. This effort entails a front-loaded high-risk investment - both in terms of technology uncertainty and the rate of adoption - making it unlikely to materialize without significant subsidies. In this paper we attempt to estimate the net benefits of the implementation of the Broadband Digital Agenda. Using a structural model we first estimate the broadband infrastructure returns for the period 2005-2011, differentiating the impact of broadband by levels of adoption and speed while taking into account the effects of reverse causality and extensive heterogeneity. We further extrapolate the individualized returns by country using different scenarios of implementation. In doing so, we utilize the most detailed sample on the total infrastructure cost requirements depending on demography, technology choice and network reuse. Effectively we monetize the conceptual policy goals, acknowledging the degrees of uncertainty within this attempt. We finally estimate the required investment and subsidies by country and the cumulative and net gains by different implementation approach.




Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?


Book Description

In developing economies, a shift to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic varies substantially. An increase in teleworking days per week ranges from 0.7 to 17.6 percentage points across 10 developing countries covered by an online survey to about 500 respondents per country. An estimated income discount associated with telework disappeared temporarily at the onset of the pandemic. A calibrated model indicates that workers’ preferences to telework may largely depend on their educational attainments. Whether telework will sustain in these countries could depend on obstacles to telework, particularly for workers with less education, and a degree of economy-wide externality.