Estimating spatial basis risk in rainfall index insurance


Book Description

This paper develops a novel methodology to estimate the degree of spatial basis risk for an arbitrary rainfall index insurance instrument. It relies on a widelyused stochastic rainfall generator, extendedto accommodate nontraditional dependence patterns—in particular spatial upper-tail dependence in rainfall—through a copula function. The methodology is applied to a recentlylaunched index product insuring against excess rainfall in Uruguay. The model is first calibrated using historical daily rainfall data from the national network of weather stations, complemented with a unique,high-resolution dataset from a dense network of 34 automatic weather stations around the study area. The degree of downside spatial basis risk is then estimated by Monte Carlo simulations and the results are linked to both a theoretical model of the demand for index insurance and to farmers’ perceptions about the product.




Ecohydrology of Water-Controlled Ecosystems


Book Description

Addressing the connections between the hydrologic cycle and plant ecosystems, the authors build suitable mathematical models and apply them to studying the ecosystem structure. Response to rainfall and climate forcing is analyzed from different areas of the world, including savannas, grasslands and forests. The book will appeal to advanced students and researchers in environmental science, hydrology, ecology, earth science, civil and environmental engineering, agriculture, and atmospheric science.




Weather Derivative Valuation


Book Description

Originally published in 2005, Weather Derivative Valuation covers all the meteorological, statistical, financial and mathematical issues that arise in the pricing and risk management of weather derivatives. There are chapters on meteorological data and data cleaning, the modelling and pricing of single weather derivatives, the modelling and valuation of portfolios, the use of weather and seasonal forecasts in the pricing of weather derivatives, arbitrage pricing for weather derivatives, risk management, and the modelling of temperature, wind and precipitation. Specific issues covered in detail include the analysis of uncertainty in weather derivative pricing, time-series modelling of daily temperatures, the creation and use of probabilistic meteorological forecasts and the derivation of the weather derivative version of the Black-Scholes equation of mathematical finance. Written by consultants who work within the weather derivative industry, this book is packed with practical information and theoretical insight into the world of weather derivative pricing.




Insurance Against Covariate Shocks


Book Description

Uninsured risk had far-reaching consequences for rural growth as well as poverty reduction. A range of informal mechanisms to insure rural households against the impact of shocks, but they are a modest component of a risk layering strategy for well-off households and even less protective for low-income households. Formal insurance mechanisms have inherent market imperfections. State interventions to address these limitations have proven costly and generally are targeted poorly. Recent developments in microfinance as well as in insurance marketing have opened new possibilities for household risk reduction. Index insurance, such as weather indexing, addresses other inherent problems in insurance by using an indicator that is not affected by individual behaviour and may address monitoring costs and moral hazard. A number of innovations using index insurance are being tried currently in diverse settings ranging from India to Mongolia to Malawi. Marketing costs may limit the provision of such insurance to small farmers, but even in such cases microfinance institutes may serve as market intermediaries. Moreover, state and submational governments can use insurance to achieve countercyclical funding programs. In this vein, municipal governments in Mexico have used insurance to finance disaster contingency while the World Food Program has insured a portion of its emergency assistance to Ethiopia. Humanitarian organizations and NGOs may also seek insurance in this manner.




Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics


Book Description

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book aims to inspire decision makers and practitioners to change their approach to climate planning in the tropics through the application of modern technologies for characterizing local climate and tracking vulnerability and risk, and using decision-making tools. Drawing on 16 case studies conducted mainly in the Caribbean, Central America, Western and Eastern Africa, and South East Asia it is shown how successful integration of traditional and modern knowledge can enhance disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in the tropics. The case studies encompass both rural and urban settings and cover different scales: rural communities, cities, and regions. In addition, the book looks to the future of planning by addressing topics of major importance, including residual risk integration in local development plans, damage insurance and the potential role of climate vulnerability reduction credits. In many regions of the tropics, climate planning is growing but has still very low quality. This book identifies the weaknesses and proposes effective solutions.




Assessing the Enabling Environment for Disaster Risk Financing


Book Description

Disasters damage and destroy infrastructure and disrupt economic activities and services, potentially delaying long-term development and hampering efforts to reduce poverty in the region. Countries require a strong enabling environment for disaster risk financing to ensure the timely availability of post-disaster funding. This report presents a comprehensive diagnostics tool kit that countries can apply to assess the financial management of disaster risk. The framework examines the state of the enabling environment and provides a basis to enhance financial resilience with insurance and other risk transfer instruments. It incorporates lessons from the country diagnostics assessments for Fiji, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka that made use of the tool kit and methodology.




Loss and Damage from Climate Change


Book Description

This book provides an authoritative insight on the Loss and Damage discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research and policy linked to this discourse and articulating its multiple concepts, principles and methods. Written by leading researchers and practitioners, it identifies practical and evidence-based policy options to inform the discourse and climate negotiations. With climate-related risks on the rise and impacts being felt around the globe has come the recognition that climate mitigation and adaptation may not be enough to manage the effects from anthropogenic climate change. This recognition led to the creation of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage in 2013, a climate policy mechanism dedicated to dealing with climate-related effects in highly vulnerable countries that face severe constraints and limits to adaptation. Endorsed in 2015 by the Paris Agreement and effectively considered a third pillar of international climate policy, debate and research on Loss and Damage continues to gain enormous traction. Yet, concepts, methods and tools as well as directions for policy and implementation have remained contested and vague. Suitable for researchers, policy-advisors, practitioners and the interested public, the book furthermore: • discusses the political, legal, economic and institutional dimensions of the issue• highlights normative questions central to the discourse • provides a focus on climate risks and climate risk management. • presents salient case studies from around the world.




The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate


Book Description

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.







Institutional versus noninstitutional credit to agricultural households in India: Evidence on impact from a national farmers’ survey


Book Description

A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives have been focused explicitly on rural areas and have had a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. But despite the significance of these initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using a large national farm household–level dataset and instrumental variables two-stage least squares estimation methods, we investigate the impact of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Our findings show that in India, formal credit is indeed playing a critical role in increasing both the net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. We also find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. In contrast, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures.