Evaluating Frontal Precipitation Consistency Within Reanalysis Datasets


Book Description

Precipitation from atmospheric fronts accounts for a significant portion of the total precipitation in the mid-latitudes, with some locations receiving the majority of their precipitation from atmospheric fronts. In addition, a significant proportion of extreme precipitation events coincide with a frontal passage in the mid-latitudes, and some of these events lead to extreme flooding which can have important and costly socio-economic consequences. Climatological studies regarding both atmospheric fronts and precipitation frequently use global reanalysis datasets due to their cohesive record of many atmospheric variables over a temporal range of generally 40 years or longer. Differences among these reanalyses regarding observations assimilated, atmospheric model used, and grid size contribute to differences in regional precipitation accumulations and the structure and frequency of identified atmospheric fronts. It is therefore important to understand how frontal precipitation is represented in global reanalysis datasets. As much of the literature on atmospheric fronts and frontal precipitation is limited to the use of a single global reanalysis or regional model, this thesis seeks to investigate the consistency among frontal identification and frontal precipitation within multiple reanalyses. The following reanalyses were used based on data availability, spatial and temporal resolution, and use within the literature: ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, NCEP-CFSR, and NOAA20C V2C. Two satellite precipitation products, CMORPH and TRMM, were also used for comparison of frontal precipitation with ERA5. There are numerous methods to identify atmospheric fronts that rely on different parameters involving temperature and/or wind. While different front diagnostics give similar results geographically in terms of frequency and structure, each diagnostic has its own strengths and weaknesses. As the choice of front diagnostic has been shown to result in differences in frontal frequency when using the same reanalysis, two different front diagnostics are used. Results show that reanalyses with a finer grid spacing (id est less than 0.5o x 0.5o) contain a 200% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal frequency for one diagnostic and a 450% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal frequency for the other diagnostic compared to reanalyses with coarse grid spacing (id est 2.0o x 2.0o). Results also show that reanalyses with a finer grid spacing see a 150% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal precipitation proportion for one diagnostic and a 460% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal precipitation proportion compared to coarser grid-spaced reanalyses. The largest differences between reanalyses in both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion exist in the tropics for both diagnostics, a region which is typically considered to have few fronts. Differences among reanalyses regarding both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion are indicated to be strongly related to the differing grid spacings of each reanalysis. To account for differing grid spacings, the reanalyses and satellite precipitation products are regridded to the same coarser grid spacing. Then both diagnostics and their frontal precipitation are recalculated on this common grid to attribute differences in both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation to either differing grid spacings between reanalyses or differences inherent to reanalyses. The regridded reanalyses have much more consistency regarding both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion. Globally, 30% of the difference in the means of total mean frontal frequency of all eight reanalyses is attributed to grid size for one diagnostic, while 59% of the difference is attributed to grid size for the other diagnostic. Allocation of frontal precipitation closely follows the frequency of identified fronts. Globally, 28% of the difference in the means of total mean frontal precipitation proportion of all eight reanalyses is attributed to grid size for one diagnostic while 61% of the difference is attributed to grid size for the other diagnostic. Both diagnostics show that the percent difference in frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion is highly dependent on geographical area. Objective frontal identification and frontal precipitation proportion is highly dependent on the choice of diagnostic, the region under consideration, the grid spacing of the reanalysis, and the reanalysis or reanalyses used. These results strongly suggest that research regarding both frontal identification and frontal precipitation should use more than one reanalysis and diagnostic.




Evaluation of Physical Parameterizations for Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation and Application to Long-term Reconstruction Based on Three Reanalysis Datasets in Western Oregon


Book Description

Dynamically downscaled precipitation is often used for evaluating sub-daily precipitation behavior on a watershed-scale and for the input to hydrological modeling because of its increasing accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution. Despite these advantages, physical parameterizations in regional models and systematic biases due to the dataset used for boundary conditions greatly influence the quality of downscaled precipitation data. The present paper aims to evaluate the performance and the sensitivities of physical parameterizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the Willamette watershed in Oregon. Also investigated was whether the optimized WRF configuration for extreme events can be used for long-term reconstruction using different boundary condition datasets. Three reanalysis datasets, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which have different spatial resolutions and dataset periods, were used to simulate precipitation at 4 km resolution. Sensitivity analyses showed that AR precipitation is most sensitive to the microphysics parameterization. Among 13 microphysics schemes investigated, the Goddard and the Stony-Brook University schemes performed the best regardless of the choice of reanalysis. Reconstructed historical precipitation with the optimized configuration showed better accuracies during the wet season than the dry season. With respect to simulations with CFSR, it was found that the optimized configuration for AR precipitation can be used for long-term reconstruction with small biases. However, systematic biases in the reanalysis datasets may still lead to uncertainties in downscaling precipitation in a different season with a single configuration.




Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change


Book Description

The Terrestrial Water Cycle: Natural and Human-Induced Changes is a comprehensive volume that investigates the changes in the terrestrial water cycle and the natural and anthropogenic factors that cause these changes. This volume brings together recent progress and achievements in large-scale hydrological observations and numerical simulations, specifically in areas such as in situ measurement network, satellite remote sensing and hydrological modeling. Our goal is to extend and deepen our understanding of the changes in the terrestrial water cycle and to shed light on the mechanisms of the changes and their consequences in water resources and human well-being in the context of global change. Volume highlights include: Overview of the changes in the terrestrial water cycle Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle Recent advances in hydrological measurement and observation Integrated modeling of the terrestrial water cycle The Terrestrial Water Cycle: Natural and Human-Induced Changes will be a valuable resource for students and professionals in the fields of hydrology, water resources, climate change, ecology, geophysics, and geographic sciences. The book will also be attractive to those who have general interests in the terrestrial water cycle, including how and why the cycle changes.




Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics


Book Description

It is now widely recognized that the climate system is governed by nonlinear, multi-scale processes, whereby memory effects and stochastic forcing by fast processes, such as weather and convective systems, can induce regime behavior. Motivated by present difficulties in understanding the climate system and to aid the improvement of numerical weather and climate models, this book gathers contributions from mathematics, physics and climate science to highlight the latest developments and current research questions in nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics. Leading researchers discuss some of the most challenging and exciting areas of research in the mathematical geosciences, such as the theory of tipping points and of extreme events including spatial extremes, climate networks, data assimilation and dynamical systems. This book provides graduate students and researchers with a broad overview of the physical climate system and introduces powerful data analysis and modeling methods for climate scientists and applied mathematicians.







Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability


Book Description

Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation




Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events


Book Description

This book arises from the International Spring School "Advances and Challenges in Space-Time modelling of Natural Events," which took place March 2010. It details recent developments, new methods and applications in spatial statistics and related areas. This book arises from the International Spring School "Advances and Challenges in Space-Time modelling of Natural Events," which took place March 2010. It details recent developments, new methods and applications in spatial statistics and related areas.




Atmospheric Rivers


Book Description

This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.




Science of Weather, Climate and Ocean Extremes


Book Description

Science of Weather, Climate and Ocean Extremes presents an evidence-based view of the most important ways in which the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is affecting both our atmosphere and the oceans. The book provides compelling reasons why concerted action is required to slow the rate at which the atmosphere and oceans are changing. It not only covers longer-term changes in extremes and their causes, but also considers the drivers and attribution of extreme events, including relevant methods and techniques. Members of the Royal Meteorological Society are eligible for a 35% discount on all Developments in Weather and Climate Science series titles. See the RMetS member dashboard for the discount code. Provides an evidence-based understanding of a significant risk to the future performance of human and natural systems Includes assessments, advice and recommendations of extreme weather and climate events Features case studies from around the globe to provide further context to the research




Remote Sensing of Clouds and Precipitation


Book Description

This book presents current applications of remote sensing techniques for clouds and precipitation for the benefit of students, educators, and scientists. It covers ground-based systems such as weather radars and spaceborne instruments on satellites. Measurements and modeling of precipitation are at the core of weather forecasting, and long-term observations of the cloud system are vital to improving atmospheric models and climate projections. The first section of the book focuses on the use of ground-based weather radars to observe and measure precipitation and to detect and forecast storms, thunderstorms, and tornadoes. It also discusses the observation of clouds using ground-based millimeter radar. The second part of the book concentrates on spaceborne remote sensing of clouds and precipitation. It includes cases from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, using satellite radars to observe precipitation systems. Then, the focus is on global cloud observations from the ClaudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), including a perspective on the Earth Clouds, Aerosols, and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite. It also addresses global atmospheric water vapor profiling for clear and cloudy conditions using microwave observations. The final part of this volume provides a perspective into advances in cloud modeling using remote sensing observations.