Evaluation of Physical Parameterizations for Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation and Application to Long-term Reconstruction Based on Three Reanalysis Datasets in Western Oregon


Book Description

Dynamically downscaled precipitation is often used for evaluating sub-daily precipitation behavior on a watershed-scale and for the input to hydrological modeling because of its increasing accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution. Despite these advantages, physical parameterizations in regional models and systematic biases due to the dataset used for boundary conditions greatly influence the quality of downscaled precipitation data. The present paper aims to evaluate the performance and the sensitivities of physical parameterizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the Willamette watershed in Oregon. Also investigated was whether the optimized WRF configuration for extreme events can be used for long-term reconstruction using different boundary condition datasets. Three reanalysis datasets, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which have different spatial resolutions and dataset periods, were used to simulate precipitation at 4 km resolution. Sensitivity analyses showed that AR precipitation is most sensitive to the microphysics parameterization. Among 13 microphysics schemes investigated, the Goddard and the Stony-Brook University schemes performed the best regardless of the choice of reanalysis. Reconstructed historical precipitation with the optimized configuration showed better accuracies during the wet season than the dry season. With respect to simulations with CFSR, it was found that the optimized configuration for AR precipitation can be used for long-term reconstruction with small biases. However, systematic biases in the reanalysis datasets may still lead to uncertainties in downscaling precipitation in a different season with a single configuration.




Atmospheric Rivers


Book Description

This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.







Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change


Book Description

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.




Next Generation Earth System Prediction


Book Description

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.




Manual on Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)


Book Description

The manual describes procedure for estimating the maximum probable precipitation and the maximum probable flood. This is the third revised version. The first and second editions of this manual were published in 1973 and 1986, respectively. The current edition keeps a majority of the content from the second edition. Newly added content in this third edition primarily results from experiences, since 1986, in directly estimating PMP for the requirements of a given project in a design watershed on probable maximum flood (PMF) in China, the United States of America, Australia and India.--Publisher's description.




Evaluating Frontal Precipitation Consistency Within Reanalysis Datasets


Book Description

Precipitation from atmospheric fronts accounts for a significant portion of the total precipitation in the mid-latitudes, with some locations receiving the majority of their precipitation from atmospheric fronts. In addition, a significant proportion of extreme precipitation events coincide with a frontal passage in the mid-latitudes, and some of these events lead to extreme flooding which can have important and costly socio-economic consequences. Climatological studies regarding both atmospheric fronts and precipitation frequently use global reanalysis datasets due to their cohesive record of many atmospheric variables over a temporal range of generally 40 years or longer. Differences among these reanalyses regarding observations assimilated, atmospheric model used, and grid size contribute to differences in regional precipitation accumulations and the structure and frequency of identified atmospheric fronts. It is therefore important to understand how frontal precipitation is represented in global reanalysis datasets. As much of the literature on atmospheric fronts and frontal precipitation is limited to the use of a single global reanalysis or regional model, this thesis seeks to investigate the consistency among frontal identification and frontal precipitation within multiple reanalyses. The following reanalyses were used based on data availability, spatial and temporal resolution, and use within the literature: ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, NCEP-CFSR, and NOAA20C V2C. Two satellite precipitation products, CMORPH and TRMM, were also used for comparison of frontal precipitation with ERA5. There are numerous methods to identify atmospheric fronts that rely on different parameters involving temperature and/or wind. While different front diagnostics give similar results geographically in terms of frequency and structure, each diagnostic has its own strengths and weaknesses. As the choice of front diagnostic has been shown to result in differences in frontal frequency when using the same reanalysis, two different front diagnostics are used. Results show that reanalyses with a finer grid spacing (id est less than 0.5o x 0.5o) contain a 200% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal frequency for one diagnostic and a 450% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal frequency for the other diagnostic compared to reanalyses with coarse grid spacing (id est 2.0o x 2.0o). Results also show that reanalyses with a finer grid spacing see a 150% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal precipitation proportion for one diagnostic and a 460% increase in globally averaged total mean frontal precipitation proportion compared to coarser grid-spaced reanalyses. The largest differences between reanalyses in both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion exist in the tropics for both diagnostics, a region which is typically considered to have few fronts. Differences among reanalyses regarding both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion are indicated to be strongly related to the differing grid spacings of each reanalysis. To account for differing grid spacings, the reanalyses and satellite precipitation products are regridded to the same coarser grid spacing. Then both diagnostics and their frontal precipitation are recalculated on this common grid to attribute differences in both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation to either differing grid spacings between reanalyses or differences inherent to reanalyses. The regridded reanalyses have much more consistency regarding both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion. Globally, 30% of the difference in the means of total mean frontal frequency of all eight reanalyses is attributed to grid size for one diagnostic, while 59% of the difference is attributed to grid size for the other diagnostic. Allocation of frontal precipitation closely follows the frequency of identified fronts. Globally, 28% of the difference in the means of total mean frontal precipitation proportion of all eight reanalyses is attributed to grid size for one diagnostic while 61% of the difference is attributed to grid size for the other diagnostic. Both diagnostics show that the percent difference in frontal frequency and frontal precipitation proportion is highly dependent on geographical area. Objective frontal identification and frontal precipitation proportion is highly dependent on the choice of diagnostic, the region under consideration, the grid spacing of the reanalysis, and the reanalysis or reanalyses used. These results strongly suggest that research regarding both frontal identification and frontal precipitation should use more than one reanalysis and diagnostic.




Precipitation: Advances in Measurement, Estimation and Prediction


Book Description

This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.




Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales


Book Description

This volume reflects the current state of scientific knowledge about natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. It covers a wide range of relevant subjects, including the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean environments as well as the methods used to describe and analyze them, such as proxy data and numerical models. They clearly demonstrate the range, persistence, and magnitude of climate variability as represented by many different indicators. Not only do natural climate variations have important socioeconomic effects, but they must be better understood before possible anthropogenic effects (from greenhouse gas emissions, for instance) can be evaluated. A topical essay introduces each of the disciplines represented, providing the nonscientist with a perspective on the field and linking the papers to the larger issues in climate research. In its conclusions section, the book evaluates progress in the different areas and makes recommendations for the direction and conduct of future climate research. This book, while consisting of technical papers, is also accessible to the interested layperson.




Water Resource Systems Planning and Management


Book Description

This book is open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license. This revised, updated textbook presents a systems approach to the planning, management, and operation of water resources infrastructure in the environment. Previously published in 2005 by UNESCO and Deltares (Delft Hydraulics at the time), this new edition, written again with contributions from Jery R. Stedinger, Jozef P. M. Dijkman, and Monique T. Villars, is aimed equally at students and professionals. It introduces readers to the concept of viewing issues involving water resources as a system of multiple interacting components and scales. It offers guidelines for initiating and carrying out water resource system planning and management projects. It introduces alternative optimization, simulation, and statistical methods useful for project identification, design, siting, operation and evaluation and for studying post-planning issues. The authors cover both basin-wide and urban water issues and present ways of identifying and evaluating alternatives for addressing multiple-purpose and multi-objective water quantity and quality management challenges. Reinforced with cases studies, exercises, and media supplements throughout, the text is ideal for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in water resource planning and management as well as for practicing planners and engineers in the field.