Excerpt: Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World


Book Description

This paper discusses developments and prospects for energy, metals, and food markets since the early 2000s, the start of what is termed a commodities supercycle—the rise of commodity prices over a decade or more as a result of a rapid urbanization and an expansion of infrastructure. Macroeconomists often assume that technological innovation is exogenous (driven largely by external factors or forces), but this volume documents how innovation in energy markets is directly affected by prices. When oil, natural gas, or fossil fuels become scarce, prices increase. This stimulates innovation and the adoption of new technologies and techniques for recovery and use of these resources. Conversely, when these commodities are abundant, prices fall, slowing the pace of innovation and the adoption of new techniques. At the heart of international trade in commodities are cross-country differenc¬es in resource endowments. Natural resources are materials or substances that occur in nature and can be used for economic gain, and so these include not only reserves of hydrocarbons, minerals, fisheries, and forests, but also temperate weather, fertile land, and access to water, which are important to agriculture.







China's Economy in Transition


Book Description

China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.




Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World


Book Description

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.




A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century


Book Description

This chapter presents the content of the Richard Dimbleby lecture, which has been delivered by an influential business or a political figure every year since 1972. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, delivered the 2014 lecture at Guildhall in London on February 3. The 44 nations gathering at Bretton Woods have been determined to set a new course based on the principle that peace and prosperity flow from the font of cooperation. Fundamentally, the new multilateralism needs to instil a broader sense of social responsibility on the part of all players in the modern global economy. A renewed commitment to openness and to the mutual benefits of trade and foreign investment is requested. It also requires collective responsibility for managing an international monetary system that has travelled light-years since the old Bretton Woods system. The collective responsibility would translate into all monetary institutions cooperating closely mindful of the potential impact of their policies on others.




In China's Wake


Book Description

In the early 2000s, Chinese demand for imported commodities ballooned as the country continued its breakneck economic growth. Simultaneously, global markets in metals and fuels experienced a boom of unprecedented extent and duration. Meanwhile, resource-rich states in the Global South from Argentina to Angola began to advance a range of new development strategies, breaking away from the economic orthodoxies to which they had long appeared tied. In China’s Wake reveals the surprising connections among these three phenomena. Nicholas Jepson shows how Chinese demand not only transformed commodity markets but also provided resource-rich states with the financial leeway to set their own policy agendas, insulated from the constraints and pressures of capital markets and multilateral creditors such as the International Monetary Fund. He combines analysis of China-led structural change with fine-grained detail on how the boom played out across fifteen different resource-rich countries. Jepson identifies five types of response to boom conditions among resource exporters, each one corresponding to a particular pattern of domestic social and political dynamics. Three of these represent fundamental breaks with dominant liberal orthodoxy—and would have been infeasible without spiraling Chinese demand. Jepson also examines the end of the boom and its consequences, as well as the possible implications of future China-driven upheavals. Combining a novel theoretical approach with detailed empirical analysis at national and global scales, In China’s Wake is an important contribution to global political economy and international development studies.




Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century


Book Description

Winner of the first Paul A. Baran-Paul M. Sweezy Memorial Award for an original monograph concerned with the political economy of imperialism, John Smith's Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century is a seminal examination of the relationship between the core capitalist countries and the rest of the world in the age of neoliberal globalization.Deploying a sophisticated Marxist methodology, Smith begins by tracing the production of certain iconic commodities-the T-shirt, the cup of coffee, and the iPhone-and demonstrates how these generate enormous outflows of money from the countries of the Global South to transnational corporations headquartered in the core capitalist nations of the Global North. From there, Smith draws on his empirical findings to powerfully theorize the current shape of imperialism. He argues that the core capitalist countries need no longer rely on military force and colonialism (although these still occur) but increasingly are able to extract profits from workers in the Global South through market mechanisms and, by aggressively favoring places with lower wages, the phenomenon of labor arbitrage. Meticulously researched and forcefully argued, Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century is a major contribution to the theorization and critique of global capitalism.




Global Economic Prospects 2007


Book Description

Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."




Commodity Prices and Markets


Book Description

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.