Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets


Book Description

This paper empirically examines multifactor asset pricing models for the returns and expected returns on eighteen national equity markets. The factors are chosen to measure global economic risks. Although previous studies do not reject the unconditional mean- variance efficiency of a world market portfolio, our evidence indicates that the tests are low in power, and the world market betas do not provide a good explanation of cross-sectional differences in average returns. Multiple beta models provide an improved explanation of the equity returns.




Tests of Alternative International Asset Pricing Models


Book Description

Previous studies have concluded that equity returns do not carry unconditional risk premia for exchange rate and inflation risks. We decompose changes in exchange rates into a component common across different exchange rates, and an idiosyncratic component. This approach allows the estimation of unconditional exchange rate premia on a large number of exchange rates. We also estimate both domestic and foreign inflation risk premia. Our analysis, carried out in the context of three alternative international asset pricing models and using stock returns from ten industrial countries, strongly rejects the hypotheses that equities carry a zero common or idiosyncratic exchange rate risk premium, or a zero domestic or foreign inflation risk premium. We find that an asset pricing model that accounts for the pricing of exchange rate and inflation risk, can explain cross country differences in asset returns reasonably well.




Currency Risk Premia in Global Stock Markets


Book Description

Large fundamental imbalances persist in the global economy, with potential exchange rate implications. This paper assesses whether exchange rate risk is priced across G-7 stock markets. Given the multitude of hedging instruments available, theory suggests that stock market investors should not be compensated for currency risk. However, data covering 33 industry portfolios across seven major stock markets suggest that not only is exchange rate risk priced in many markets, but that it is time-varying and sensitive to currency-specific shocks. With stock market investors typically exhibiting "home bias," this suggests that investors are using equity asset proxies to hedge the exchange rate risks to consumption.







Global Liquidity


Book Description

What is global liquidity and how does it affect an economy? The paper addresses that question by looking at liquidity from two different perspectives: global liquidity as availability of funds in safe and risky asset markets. This distinction between safe and risky asset markets is important due to market segmentation, which called for unconventional monetary policy to restore a function of risky asset markets. To analyze the effect of global liquidity, I construct proxy variables and then asses how they affect an emerging economy whose interest rate is affected by a world risk-free rate and a risk premium. Using the data from four major Latin American countries, I find that these two aspects of global liquidity have similar effects on economic performance in emerging market economies except for their effect on inflation.




Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets


Book Description

In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.




Global Risk Premia on International Investments


Book Description

Implementing unconditional as well as conditional beta pricing models, the author identifies global economic factors that affect the performance of international investments.




Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure and Risk Premium in International Investments


Book Description

We examine how exchange rate changes affect the security returns and how economic and translation exposure components of exchange rate risk are priced across countries. Employing ADRs of four countries, we document four main findings. First, exchange rate changes are negatively related to underlying share returns of ADRs, but positively to ADR returns observed in the U.S. markets. Second, ADR returns are more closely related to local market returns than U.S. market returns, indicating that the local market environment plays a bigger role in determining ADR returns. Third, U.S. and local investors require different risk premiums for exchange rate risk present in ADR investments. Fourth, both the source (economic or translation exposure) and magnitude (high or low) of the exchange risk premium vary across countries. We obtain robust empirical findings for both country ADR portfolios and individual ADRs.




International Capital Flows


Book Description

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.