A Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice in the Transitional Economies of Central and Eastern Europe


Book Description

The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.




Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability


Book Description

The Asian crisis of 1997-1998 was a major influence on macroeconomic thinking concerning exchange rate regimes, the functioning of international institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, and international contagion of macroeconomic instability from one country to another. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability offers perspectives on these issues from the viewpoints of two Nobel Laureates, an IMF economist, and Asian economists. This book contributes new ideas to the ongoing debate on the role of domestic monetary authorities and international institutions in reducing the likelihood of international financial crises, as well as the problems associated with various exchange rate regimes from the standpoint of macroeconomic stability. Overall, the chapters contained in this volume offer interesting perspectives, which have been stimulated by the recent events in the foreign exchange market. They provide a useful reference for anyone interested in the development of exchange rate regimes, and represent considerable reflection by economists half a century after Bretton Woods.




Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

There are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country’s currency tracks the euro (or the dollar) is correlated with the structure of its external trade and finance. However, some countries appear to track the EUR or USD to an extent which appears inconsistent with inflation targeting, trade or financial integration, or the extent of business cycle synchronization. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among the countries in the CESEE euro bloc, which may be deliberately gravitating around the euro in anticipation of eventually joining the Euro Area.




Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe


Book Description

The paper uses data from transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe to assess four questions: (i) Did the standard blueprint for stabilization work, and was it implemented? (ii) To what extent was normal macroeconomics impeded by solvency problems in banks, and how successful have been policies to improve incentives within banks? (iii) Could financial markets and other infrastructure for monetary policy have been developed more quickly? (iv) How should transition economies respond to the monetary inflows that typically accompany success? The paper concludes by evaluating the changing advice offered by external agencies during the 1990s.




Macroeconomic Modelling And Monetary And Exchange Rate Regimes


Book Description

This book presents articles that focus on the inter-related issues of choice of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, and others that use a global macroeconomic model developed by the author and collaborators to quantify the effects of the 'baby boom' on global imbalances, costs of disinflation, and the effects of German unification. The book presents new analysis of the euro-zone experience and its applicability to other monetary unions, as well as a discussion of the prerequisites for successful inflation targeting. It is grounded in real-world data, readily accessible to non-specialists, and addresses important economic policy issues.