Handbook of Exchange Rates


Book Description

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




Foreign Exchange Rates


Book Description

Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.




Handbook of World Exchange Rates, 1590–1914


Book Description

As a world economy emerged from the 16th-17th centuries onwards, a global cashless payment system arose. This had its base in Europe, first in Italy, then in the rising regions of the north-west, with Amsterdam and then London as the central financial market. The mutual quotation of exchange rates, which provide the data tabulated and analysed here, mark the integration into a global network of all areas with significant economic potential. The primary aim of this book is to provide a compact account of the exchange rates in all these financial markets, from the late 16th century up to the First World War. This makes possible an instant conversion between the major world currencies at nearly any date within that period, while the important introduction provides the explanation and context of developments. The present handbook therefore serves as an invaluable resource for those concerned with all aspects of commercial and financial history.




IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1


Book Description

This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.




Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries


Book Description

'...the most definitive study of the subject, assembling an all-star cast to address the many outstanding questions and succeeding beyond expectations in combining elegant theory and state of the art econometrics to reach very sensible policy conclusions.' - Mohsin S. Khan, Deputy Director, Research Department, International Monetary Fund ' This book fills an important vacuum in the literature of the economic consequences of parallel markets and should prove of great value to students of economic development and to policy-makers in developing countries as they struggle to reform their exchange rate and trade incentive systems. Here they will find all that they need to know.' - Vittorio Corbo, Professor of Economics, Universidad Catolica de Chile 'A most comprehensive treatment of the relationships between parallel foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policies, both across countries and over time. The book substantially enhances our understanding of how these systems work in practice and will be of great interest to policy-makers, researchers and graduate students of economic policy.' - Samuel M. Wangwe, Professor of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam and Executive Director, Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania This book examines extensive empirical evidence on the macroeconomic implications of parallel exchange rates in developing countries. Eight case-studies from Africa, Latin America, and Turkey provide detailed evidence on the emergence of parallel exchange rates, their impact on macroeconomic performance, and the criteria for successful exchange-rate unification. A chapter on European dual exchange rates summarizes the contrasting experience of industrial countries. An overview chapter lays out the analytical framework, assesses the evidence, and draws policy conclusions.




Development Centre Studies The World Economy Volume 1: A Millennial Perspective and Volume 2: Historical Statistics


Book Description

The World Economy brings together two reference works by Angus Maddison: The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (2001) and The World Economy: Historical Statistics (2003). This new edition contains Statlinks, so that readers can access the underlying data in Excel format.




Fiscal Policy with Fixed Nominal Exchange Rates


Book Description

C^ote d'Ivoire's increase in debt in the 1980s (from 30 percent of GDP to 100 percent) did little for new investment, because the investment-GDP ratio barely compensated for inflation. The country's fiscal stance hurt the real exchange rate and international competitiveness.




Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models


Book Description

This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the "purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles." The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.




Sovereign Wealth Funds


Book Description

Sovereign wealth funds are a growing and dynamic force in international finance. The shifting international economic relations from capital rich states gives them new power in influencing the global agenda. Despite controlling trillions of dollars in the biggest companies in the world, little is known about the opaque funds of oil rich and non-democratic governments. This is the first book to compile a history of sovereign wealth funds recounting the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's involvement with the scandal-plagued BCCI bank and Chinese arms exports to Iran. By constructing a history within the proper context of oil driven surpluses and large inflationary pressures with no international investment framework, this book explains the development and growth of sovereign wealth funds. The economics of capital surplus countries and investment strategies are examined in order to better understand sovereign wealth fund creation and growth. In a straightforward and accessible style, the author examines the complex and amazing growth of an unknown group of investors controlling trillions of dollars worldwide.