Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence


Book Description

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.




In Praise of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction


Book Description

Textbook orthodoxy maintains that increases in the cyclically adjusted budget balance (i.e. reductions in the deficit) withdraw demand from an economy. Those Keynesian economists who believe that fiscal policy is the most powerful single influence on changes in demand expect 'fiscal contraction' to be accompanied by below-trend growth or even declines in output. This article, a response to Martin Wolf's 2013 Wincott Memorial Lecture, considers this Keynesian view. Using a database prepared by the International Monetary Fund, it shows that since the 1980s 'expansionary fiscal contractions' have been the norm and not the exception in the USA and the UK. Keynesian support for fiscal activism is unsupported by a large body of recent evidence.




Trimming the Sails


Book Description

Fiscal consolidation has significant short-term costs which can dampen economic growth. This widely shared consensus in the literature on political economy has made fiscal adjustment highly unpopular among rational politicians. By critically analyzing the international literature and building on evidence from European countries, Benczes conducts a systematic analysis to find out whether it is possible to experience fiscal consolidation and economic growth at the same time, even in the short run.




Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data


Book Description

We examine the ability of the expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis to explain the performance of OECD economies during fiscal crises. We find some limited evidence in its favour: if public consumption is reduced in response to a fiscal crisis (as defined by a high level of debt), private consumption does seem to increase. However, the size of the effect is smaller than that typically found in other studies. Furthermore, the increase in private consumption is usually not sufficient to offset the direct effect of a reduction in public consumption on output - fiscal contractions are not literally expansionary.




Expansionary Fiscal Contraction


Book Description

This unique collection recasts a critical episode in post-war British economic history with profound implications for today's policy makers.