Expectation Traps in a New Keynesian Open Economy Model


Book Description

"This paper illustrates that the introduction of a money demand distortion into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Open Economy model generates multiple discretionary equilibria. These equilibria arise in the form of expectations traps whereby the monetary authority is trapped into validating expectations of the private sector because failing to do so is costly. One implication of the model is that provided initial inflation expectations are sufficiently anchored the global Friedman rule emerges as an equilibrium under discretion. It is therefore a time-consistent outcome and hence fully sustainable even in absence of a commitment device or reputational considerations"--Abstract.




Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle


Book Description

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts




Hysteresis and Business Cycles


Book Description

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.




Issues in Monetary Policy


Book Description

Since the Bank of England was made independent in 1997, the conduct of monetary policy has been relatively uncontroversial. The debates between Keyneisans, monetarists and supporters of fixed exchange rate mechanisms now appear very distant. Despite the apparent consensus there are many issues related to the conduct of monetary policy that are not yet settled and which will soon come to the fore. Is the current form of independence for the Bank of England appropriate? Should a central bank target inflation or the prices level? How does a central bank deal with asset price deflation? Should more account be taken of monetary aggregates? Should central banks target asset prices? What is the relationship between the money supply and asset price inflation? How should central banks ensure financial stability? The IEA was at the forefront of changing the parameters of the debate surrounding monetary policy in the 1970s and 1980s. This text, brings together some of the leading authors in the field, including the current Governor of the Bank of England, to discuss current issues in monetary policy and the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. It is appropriate for undergraduates and postgraduates in economics and finance as well as for practitioners in financial markets.




Toward an Integrated Policy Framework


Book Description

Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.




An Encyclopedia of Keynesian Economics, Second edition


Book Description

Acclaim for the first edition: ÔThis easy-to-read collection . . . tells the whole story. Filled with short, well-written pieces, the encyclopedia covers the names and ideas that preceded Keynes, that carried his work to the center of the profession, and that eventually supplanted him there . . . There are excellent and unexpected articles on the Austrian school, the Lausanne school, and the Ricardo effect. There are well-done pieces on all the basic theoretical models at the heart of Keynesianism . . . [the] volume has been well put together. The editors deserve special praise for letting each contributor tell his own story. Those who oppose KeynesÕs ideas are just as well represented as those who carry the torch for him. This evenhandedness helps to ensure a volume that is truly representative and that will allow its users to get a full picture of the life and times of Keynesian economics.Õ Ð Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College, US ÔThe book will also be of some interest to serious scholars, partly because it includes biographies of many economists too young to have been included in the New Palgrave, such as Dornbusch, Fisher, Herschel Grossman, Kregel, Lucas, and Robert Townsend. It also includes some very interesting longer essays.Õ Ð Peter Howitt, The Economic Journal ÔThis book provides an excellent summary of the many strands of ÔKeynesianÕ- style thought both before and after 1936. Its well-considered entries take care to make explicit the assumptions and fundamental points of difference between theories too often concealed by the parents and advocates of specific theories in their zeal to promote the universality of the ideas. There is scarcely an entry that suffers from wordiness and repetition; the readerÕs scarce time is not abused.Õ Ð Elizabeth Webster, Economic Record ÔThis reviewer found using this source exhilarating and endowed with additional interest in view of the 1997 discussion on the inclusion or noninclusion of Keynesian economics in introductory economics textbooks. The editors should be applauded for helping to preserve a part of intellectual heritage.Õ Ð Bogdan Mieczkowski, American Reference Books ÔIt is the best single reference source on Keynesian economics and will be welcomed by students and teachers in economics as well as scholars in related social sciences and government policy makers.Õ Ð Educational Book Review This thoroughly revised and updated second edition of a highly acclaimed and authoritative reference work introduces the major concepts in the field of Keynesian economics. The comprehensive Encyclopedia features accessible, informative and provocative contributions by leading international scholars working in the tradition of Keynes. It brings together widely dispersed yet theoretically congruent ideas, presents concise biographies of economists who have contributed to the debate on Keynes and the Keynesian Revolution, and outlines the basic principles, models and tools used to discuss the economic consequences of The General Theory. Longer entries on specific topics associated with Keynes and the Keynesian Revolution analyse the principal factors that contributed to The General Theory, the economics of Keynes and the rise and apparent decline of Keynesian economics in greater detail. The second edition will ensure that An Encyclopedia of Keynesian Economics will remain the best single reference source on Keynesian economics and will continue to be welcomed by academics, students and teachers of economics as well as by scholars in related social sciences and government policymakers.




Monetary Theory and Policy, fourth edition


Book Description

The new edition of a comprehensive treatment of monetary economics, including the first extensive coverage of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. This textbook presents a comprehensive treatment of the most important topics in monetary economics, focusing on the primary models monetary economists have employed to address topics in theory and policy. Striking a balance of insight, accessibility, and rigor, the book covers the basic theoretical approaches, shows how to do simulation work with the models, and discusses the full range of frictions that economists have studied to understand the impacts of monetary policy. For the fourth edition, every chapter has been revised to improve the exposition and to reflect recent research. The new edition offers an entirely new chapter on the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, forward guidance policies, and quantitative and credit easing policies. Material on the basic new Keynesian model has been reorganized into a single chapter to provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and its policy implications. In addition, the chapter on the open economy now reflects the dominance of the new Keynesian approach. Other new material includes discussions of price adjustment, labor market frictions and unemployment, and moral hazard frictions among financial intermediaries. References and end-of-chapter problems allow readers to extend their knowledge of the topics covered. Monetary Theory and Policy continues to be the most comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of monetary economics, not only the leading text in the field but also the standard reference for academics and central bank researchers.




A Research Annual


Book Description

Vol 33 includes research from preeminent scholars such as Malcolm Rutherford, current HES President-elect Jeff E. Biddle, Steven G. Medema, author of The Hesitant Hand: Taming Self-Interest in the History of Economic Ideas, leading methodologist John B. Davis, and Robert W. Dimand, one of the world's foremost experts on John Maynard Keynes.




Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics


Book Description

In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation. De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets