Export Variety, Productivity, and Country Size in a Multi-good Ricardian Model of Export Diversification


Book Description

This paper addresses the lack of connection between theory and empirics in most export diversification-economic development studies. We provide a Ricardian-based theoretical explanation of countries' relative export variety as a function of the level of technology and country size assessed with respect to the rest of the world. Relative export diversification is an outcome of two forces: a relative productivity change (technological progress) and a relative country size change (labour force growth). The model predictions are confirmed in a sample of 132 countries (1988-2014), including 53 low-income countries, for which we measure export variety using product-level trade data. The influence of technology differences on export variety is: (i) stronger than is the effect of cross-country differences in size and (ii) non-linear, driving diversification at the beginning of the development process. The results are robust to the measurement of export variety, the inclusion of control variables, and estimation methods.




Does What You Export Matter?


Book Description

Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.




Breaking Into New Markets


Book Description

International trade in 2009 is projected to contract for the first time since 1982. As a result, export diversifi cation has gained new urgency as one way of using exports to recover lost growth momentum. Moreover, diversifi cation is central to reducing income volatility and sustaining high growth rates, which are especially important for countries with large populations living in poverty. In the 1950s, countries became concerned that their dependence on primary products would lead to steady falls in the purchasing power of primary exports and thus slow growth. A major policy objective of developing countries since that time has been to diversify out of primary products into manufactures. Although some nations have been at least partially successful, many low-income countries remain dependent on a narrow range of primary products. 'Breaking Into New Markets' argues for a comprehensive view of diversifi cation. It explores new thinking and evidence about export diversifi cation and elaborates on policies for its promotion. These policies span tariffs and taxes, services, and government activities to help fi rms take advantage of global opportunities. The book is a compilation of chapters written as short, policy-focused pieces. Many digest longer, more academic papers in an effort to make the information accessible to a larger policy and nontechnical audience. In that sense, the book is a policy primer on what export diversifi cation can and cannot do for growth and how to make diversifi cation happen. Intelligently designed policies that effi ciently address the obstacles to export growth are critical for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This book offers insights useful to policy makers and practitioners as they embark on efforts to design new programs of competitiveness in their trade strategies.




Make in India


Book Description

Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.




Kazakhstan: Accelerating Economic Diversification


Book Description

Kazakhstan has the potential to become an economic leader in Central Asia. Relying on oil and gas alone, however, will not produce the long-run level of growth needed to meet this potential. Reforms geared to improve the business climate, enhance competitiveness, and increase private sector participation are essential. This book examines reforms to accelerate economic diversification in the country. This involves not only modernizing and using public resources in agriculture more efficiently to increase productivity, but also transitioning of manufacturing toward high-potential exports to help the country’s industrial development and create employment opportunities. Upgrading innovation of oilfield services and improving transport and logistics are important to increase participation in the global value chains.




Making It Big


Book Description

Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.




A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis


Book Description

Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development




World Development Report 2020


Book Description

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.




Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms


Book Description

This paper examines how country, industry and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The relative ascendance of high-productivity firms within industries boosts aggregate productivity and drives down consumer prices. In contrast with the neoclassical model, these price declines dampen and can even reverse the real wage losses of scarce factors as countries liberalize.




Globalization and Development


Book Description

Globalization and Development draws upon the experiences of the Latin American and Caribbean region to provide a multidimensional assessment of the globalization process from the perspective of developing countries. Based on a study by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), this book gives a historical overview of economic development in the region and presents both an economic and noneconomic agenda that addresses disparity, respects diversity, and fosters complementarity among regional, national, and international institutions. For orders originating outside of North America, please visit the World Bank website for a list of distributors and geographic discounts at http://publications.worldbank.org/howtoorder or e-mail [email protected].