Exports, Inflation, and Growth


Book Description

This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.




From Inflation to Growth


Book Description

This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.




From Inflation to Growth


Book Description

This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.




From Inflation to Growth


Book Description

This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.




Inflation and Growth in China


Book Description

The linkage between inflation and economic growth has been the subject of considerable interest and debate. The 18 papers included in this volume comprise the proceedings of a conference on inflation and growth in China that brought together academics, officials and IMF staff members. The papers edited by Manuel Guitián and Robert Mundell, examine issues in international exeperiences with inflation and growth, long-run and short-run structural problems related tgo growth and inflation in China, and the framework in which monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies are formulated in China.




The Impact of Trade on the Economic Growth of The Gambia


Book Description

Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Trade and Distribution, grade: 76.0, University of The Gambia (University of the Gambia), course: Economics, language: English, abstract: The study examined the general impact of trade on economic growth in the Gambia from 1965 to 2016. Accordingly we have done three analyses in order to get appropriate answers to our research problems. We performed some econometric methods such as Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model. The findings of the stationery test shows the present of unit root. The OLS regression results shows that import, interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and inflation are positively correlated with GDP, while export is negatively correlated with GDP. The result shows that GDP lag, import, and real effective exchange rate can not influence economic growth while export, interest rate, and inflation can highly influence economic growth of the Gambia, even though export negatively influence economic of the Gambia. This positive relationship suggests that the economy of the Gambia can potentially be expanded by means of trade, while the negative relationship means that it has no bearing on the economic growth of the Gambia, From the overall analysis, it is revealed that the variables included in the model have a 50% influence on economic growth while the remaining 50% constitute variables not included in the model. This implies that (a) Trade has an impact on economic growth of the Gambia. (b) Trade is a robust determinant of economic growth in the Gambia even though that there is still room for research on the impact of trade on economic growth in the Gambia. (c) The effect of trade and extent of the market on growth is a recurring issue in the world of economics. This study recommends that if the Gambia economic growth is to be increased, then policymakers should came up with strategies that encourage more imports, reduce interest rate, and maintain a stable exchange rate and inflation rate in the Gambia. The negative sign of export means policymakers should pay less attention to export.




Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies


Book Description

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.




Beyond Inflation Targeting


Book Description

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the sacred cow of central banking. But its suitability to developing nations remains contested. The contributors to this volume perform the valuable service of sketching out plausible, more development-friendly alternatives. They are to be commended in particular for avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach and paying close attention to the needs of specific countries. Their proposals range from relatively minor tinkering in IT to comprehensive overhaul. A common theme is the central role of the real exchange rate, which the central banks ignore at their economies peril. Dani Rodrik, Harvard University, US As the world economy is devastated by a virulent financial crisis and jobs are lost in scores, central bankers are increasingly questioned as to why they have failed to sustain stability and growth even though they told us all along that conquering inflation would be necessary and sufficient to do so while hoping to get a pat on the back for achieving a degree of price stability unprecedented in recent times. This book provides a lot of food for thought on why. It is a powerful critique of the orthodox obsession with inflation in neglect of the two deepseated problems of the unbridled market economy financial instability and unemployment. It is a must for all policy makers, notably in the developing world, and for the mainstream. Yilmaz Akyuz, formerly of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva, Switzerland This collective volume makes a compelling case for balancing the developmental and stabilization functions of central banks. In particular, the authors emphasize that, as practiced in many successful developing countries, competitive real exchange rates can be good for growth and employment generation, and should thus be a specific focus of central bank actions. The book is a must read for those looking for a more balanced framework for central bank policies. José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University, US and former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations for Economic and Social Affairs and Finance Minister of Colombia This book, written by an international team of economists, develops concrete, country specific alternatives to inflation targeting, the dominant policy framework of central bank policy that focuses on keeping inflation in the low single digits to the virtual exclusion of other key goals such as employment creation, poverty reduction and sustainable development. The book includes thematic chapters, including analyses of class attitudes toward inflation and unemployment and the gender impacts of restrictive monetary policy. Other chapters propose improved monetary frameworks for Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. Policy frameworks that are explored include employment targeting, and targeting a stable and competitive real exchange rate. The authors also show that to reach a larger number of targets, including higher employment and stable inflation, central banks must use a larger number of instruments, including capital management techniques. This volume offers concrete, socially valuable alternatives that economists, policy makers, students and interested laypeople should consider before adopting one size fits all, often inadequate, policies that have become a virtual policy making fad.




Trade, Inflation, and the Dollar


Book Description




Accelerating And Sustaining Growth


Book Description

The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.