Extremes in a Changing Climate


Book Description

This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.




Climate Change and Extreme Events


Book Description

Climate Change and Extreme Events uses a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the relationship between climate change-related weather extremes and their impact on human lives. Topics discussed are grouped into four major sections: weather parameters, hydrological responses, mitigation and adaptation, and governance and policies, with each addressed with regard to past, present and future perspectives. Sections give an overview of weather parameters and hydrological responses, presenting current knowledge and a future outlook on air and stream temperatures, precipitation, storms and hurricanes, flooding, and ecosystem responses to these extremes. Other sections cover extreme weather events and discuss the role of the state in policymaking. This book provides a valuable interdisciplinary resource to climate scientists and meteorologists, environmental researchers, and social scientists interested in extreme weather. Provides an integrated interdisciplinary approach to how climate change impacts the hydrological system Addresses significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of climate change and extreme events Discusses the societal impacts of climate change-related weather extremes, including multilevel governance and adaptation policy




Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment


Book Description

Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. Provides an overview about past, present and future changes in climate and weather extremes and how to connect that knowledge to impact and risk assessment under global warming Presents different approaches to assess societal-relevant impacts and risk of climate and weather extremes, including compound events, and the complexity of risk cascades and the interconnectedness of societal risk Features applications across a diversity of sectors, including agriculture, health, ecosystem services and urban transport




Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change


Book Description

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.




Statistical Analysis of Climate Extremes


Book Description

The risks posed by climate change and its effect on climate extremes are an increasingly pressing societal problem. This book provides an accessible overview of the statistical analysis methods which can be used to investigate climate extremes and analyse potential risk. The statistical analysis methods are illustrated with case studies on extremes in the three major climate variables: temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. The book also provides datasets and access to appropriate analysis software, allowing the reader to replicate the case study calculations. Providing the necessary tools to analyse climate risk, this book is invaluable for students and researchers working in the climate sciences, as well as risk analysts interested in climate extremes.







El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate


Book Description

Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.




Extreme Events and Climate Change


Book Description

An authoritative volume focusing on multidisciplinary methods to estimate the impacts of climate-related extreme events to society As the intensity and frequency of extreme events related to climate change continue to increase, there is an urgent need for clear and cohesive analysis that integrates both climatological and socioeconomic impacts. Extreme Events and Climate Change provides a timely, multidisciplinary examination of the impacts of extreme weather under a warming climate. Offering wide-ranging coverage of the methods and analysis that relate changes in extreme events to their societal impacts, this volume helps readers understand and overcome the methodological challenges associated with extreme event analysis. Contributions from leading experts from across disciplines describe the theoretical requirements for analyzing the complex interactions between meteorological phenomena and the resulting outcomes, discuss new approaches for analyzing the impacts of extreme events on society, and illustrate how empirical and theoretical concepts merge to form a unified plan that enables informed decision making. Throughout the text, innovative frameworks allow readers to find solutions to the modeling and statistical challenges encountered when analyzing extreme events. Designed for researchers and policy makers alike, this important resource: Discusses topics central to understanding how extreme weather changes as the climate warms Provides coverage of analysis methods that relate changes in extreme events to their societal impacts Reviews significant theoretical and modeling advances in the physical aspects of climate science Presents a comprehensive view of state of the science, including new ways of using data from different sources Extreme Events and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach is an indispensable volume for students, researchers, scientists, and practitioners in fields such as hazard and risk analysis, climate change, atmospheric and ocean sciences, hydrology, geography, agricultural science, and environmental and space science.




Climate of Extremes


Book Description

There's a whole new world of global warming science today, but few people hear about it. In recent years, an internally consistent body of scientific literature has emerged that argues cogently for global warming but against the gloom-and-doom vision of climate change. But those who merely call attention to this literature are intimidated, blacklisted, and even driven from prestigious scientific employment. Calling the current scientific environment a "climate of extremes" is an understatement. It's a fact that there are fewer citations in the refereed scientific literature providing evidence for the moderate view of global warming, but that's to be expected. In Climate of Extremes, climatologists Patrick J. Michaels and Robert Balling Jr. explain that climate science is hardly unbiased, even though the global climate community itself believes that any new finding has an equal probability of making our climatic future appear more or less dire. Michaels and Balling examine all aspects of the apocalyptic vision of climate change making headlines almost every day: Hurricanes pumped up by global warming, rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctica resulting in 20 feet of sea-level rise in the next 90 years, that global warming is occurring at an increasing pace, and there is a massive increase in heat-wave related deaths. Each one of these pop-culture icons of climate change turns out to be short on facts and long on exaggeration. People who read Climate of Extremes will emerge well-armed against an army of extremists hawking climate change as the greatest threat ever to our society and way of life.




Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems


Book Description

Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. Authors: Patrick Willems, University of Leuven, Hydraulics division; Jonas Olsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Simon Beecham, University of South Australia, School of Natural and Built Environments; Assela Pathirana, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Ida Bulow Gregersen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Henrik Madsen, DHI Water & Environment, Water Resources Department; Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, McGill University, Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics