Fate & Prediction
Author : Fred Gettings
Publisher :
Page : 500 pages
File Size : 24,68 MB
Release : 1980
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 9780896730434
Memory as Prediction
Author : Tomaso Vecchi
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 211 pages
File Size : 15,79 MB
Release : 2020-11-24
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0262361221
Book Description
Theoretical reflections and analytical observations on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future.
Probably Not
Author : Lawrence N. Dworsky
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 25,59 MB
Release : 2008-05-23
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470282045
Book Description
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.
Predicting Chemical Toxicity and Fate
Author : Mark T.D. Cronin
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 25,19 MB
Release : 2004-05-10
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780203642627
Book Description
Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs) are increasingly used to predict the harmful effects of chemicals to humans and the environment. The increased use of these methods in a variety of areas (academic, industrial, regulatory) results from a realization that very little toxicological or fate data is available on the vast amount of chemicals to which humans and the environment are exposed. Predicting Chemical Toxicity and Fate provides a comprehensive explanation of the state-of-the-art methods that are available to predict the effects of chemicals on humans and the environment. It describes the use of predictive methods to estimate the physiochemical properties, biological activities, and fate of chemicals. The methods described may be used to predict the properties of drugs before their development, and to predict the environmental effects of chemicals. These methods also reduce the cost of product development and the need for animal testing. This book fills an obvious need by providing a comprehensive explanation of these prediction methods. It is a practical book that illustrates the use of these techniques in real life scenarios. This book will demystify QSARs for those students unsure of them, and professionals in environmental toxicology and chemistry will find this a useful reference in their everyday working lives.
Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy
Author : Avi Goldfarb
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 510 pages
File Size : 14,19 MB
Release : 2015-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 022620684X
Book Description
There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.
Seeing into the Future
Author : Martin van Creveld
Publisher : Reaktion Books
Page : 297 pages
File Size : 29,4 MB
Release : 2020-09-07
Category : History
ISBN : 1789142296
Book Description
The ability to predict the future is essential to modern life. Planning for population growth or changes in weather patterns or forecasting demand for products and managing inventories would be impossible without it. But how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) as our ancestors bent over their auguries? From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future provides vital insight into the past, present, and—of course—future of prediction.
Parable of the Talents
Author : Octavia E. Butler
Publisher : Seven Stories Press
Page : 374 pages
File Size : 12,2 MB
Release : 1998
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781888363814
Book Description
Parable of the Talents celebrates the classic Butlerian themes of alienation and transcendence, violence and spirituality, slavery and freedom, separation and community, to astonishing effect, in the shockingly familiar, broken world of 2032. Long awaited, Parable of the Talents is the continuation of the travails of Lauren Olamina, the heroine of 1994's Nebula-Prize finalist, bestselling Parable of the Sower. Parable of the Talents is told in the voice of Lauren Olamina's daughter&...from whom she has been separated for most of the girl's life&...with sections in the form of Lauren's journal. Against a background of a war-torn continent, and with a far-right religious crusader in the office of the U.S. presidency, this is a book about a society whose very fabric has been torn asunder, and where the basic physical and emotional needs of people seem almost impossible to meet.
Predicting the Future
Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : SUNY Press
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 50,68 MB
Release : 1998-01-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780791435533
Book Description
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Predicting the Future
Author : Henry Abarbanel
Publisher : Springer
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 40,83 MB
Release : 2013-06-12
Category : Science
ISBN : 1461472180
Book Description
Through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system, the author provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and evaluation across disciplines. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model’s consistency with observations is explored.
Future Babble
Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
Page : 319 pages
File Size : 38,89 MB
Release : 2010-10-12
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0771035217
Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
