Fiscal Deficits and Inflation


Book Description

Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.




Fiscal Deficits and Inflation Management


Book Description

This paper begins with a brief overview of the prevailing fiscal scenario in India, emphasizing the path of the fiscal deficit between 1991 and the present fiscal year. It then examines the prevailing monetary policy framework and the key issues involved which lead up to a debate on monetary reform in India. It examines the link between fiscal deficits and price stability/inflation management. This is done in two parts - the first examining the impact of fiscal policy on inflation, and the second examining the impact of monetary policy on government debt and deficit. These impacts are examined by explaining the existing theory of the links between these issues, and then contextualizing each of the links for the Indian case. Having established that complementary fiscal rules are needed before moving towards establishing a monetary policy rule in India, the paper examines the existing fiscal rules and their suitability/efficacy towards supporting possible monetary reform, and concludes by looking at fiscal and political limitations towards monetary reforms in India.




Inflation and Fiscal Deficits


Book Description

The purpose of this paper is to present a model that circumvents the requirement of explicitly setting a period in which the fiscal budget is to be balanced, yet implies that increases in the growth of public debt are bound to increase inflation when there is no perceived commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit. The model is based on a modified version of the cash in advance constraint. The results of numerical simulations suggest that an increase in the growth of debt to finance current consumption leads to an equal increase in inflation. The timing of this increase varies with the size of the deficit and the pace of economic growth. It is shown that small increases in small deficits yield fairly significant increases in inflation. Three policy conclusions are offered.







The Deficit Myth


Book Description

A New York Times Bestseller The leading thinker and most visible public advocate of modern monetary theory -- the freshest and most important idea about economics in decades -- delivers a radically different, bold, new understanding for how to build a just and prosperous society. Stephanie Kelton's brilliant exploration of modern monetary theory (MMT) dramatically changes our understanding of how we can best deal with crucial issues ranging from poverty and inequality to creating jobs, expanding health care coverage, climate change, and building resilient infrastructure. Any ambitious proposal, however, inevitably runs into the buzz saw of how to find the money to pay for it, rooted in myths about deficits that are hobbling us as a country. Kelton busts through the myths that prevent us from taking action: that the federal government should budget like a household, that deficits will harm the next generation, crowd out private investment, and undermine long-term growth, and that entitlements are propelling us toward a grave fiscal crisis. MMT, as Kelton shows, shifts the terrain from narrow budgetary questions to one of broader economic and social benefits. With its important new ways of understanding money, taxes, and the critical role of deficit spending, MMT redefines how to responsibly use our resources so that we can maximize our potential as a society. MMT gives us the power to imagine a new politics and a new economy and move from a narrative of scarcity to one of opportunity.




How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?


Book Description

A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives.




Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation


Book Description

"The Great Recession and worldwide financial crisis have exploded fiscal imbalances and brought fiscal policy and inflation to the forefront of policy concerns. Those concerns will only grow as aging populations increase demands on government expenditures in coming decades. It is widely perceived that fiscal policy is inflationary if and only if it leads the central bank to print new currency to monetize deficits. Monetization can be inflationary. But it is a misperception that this is the only channel for fiscal inflations. Nominal bonds, the predominant form of government debt in advanced economies, derive their value from expected future nominal primary surpluses and money creation; changes in the price level can align the market value of debt to its expected real backing. This introduces a fresh channel, not requiring monetization, through which fiscal deficits directly affect inflation. The paper begins by pointing out similarities and differences between the Weimar Republic after World War I and the United States today. It describes various ways in which fiscal policy can directly affect inflation and explains why these fiscal effects are difficult to detect in time series data." - - Abstract.







Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies


Book Description

Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.




Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect


Book Description

The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit—a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures—the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.