Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

Macroeconomists want to understand the effects of fiscal policy on interest rates, while financial economists look for the factors that drive the dynamics of the yield curve. To shed light on both issues, we present an empirical macro-finance model that combines a no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a set of structural restrictions that allow us to identify fiscal policy shocks, and trace the effects of these shocks on the prices of bonds of different maturities. Compared to a standard VAR, this approach has the advantage of incorporating the information embedded in a large cross-section of bond prices. Moreover, the pricing equations provide new ways to assess the model's ability to capture risk preferences and expectations. Our results suggest that (i) government deficits affect long term interest rates: a one percentage point increase in the deficit to GDP ratio, lasting for 3 years, will eventually increase the 10-year rate by 40--50 basis points; (ii) this increase is partly due to higher expected spot rates, and partly due to higher risk premia on long term bonds; and (iii) the fiscal policy shocks account for up to 12% of the variance of forecast errors in bond yields.




Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and the Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

The introduction of the thesis consists of four parts: first, we motivate our chosen macroeconomic setting by looking at some real world phenomena. For a better understanding of these phenomena, we argue that the mutual dynamic interactions between flScal policy and financial markets need to be closely examined in a macroeconomic framework. Second, we review different strands of the economic literature in order to show that most of the literature has so far exclusively concentrated either on fmancial market dynamics or on flScal policy issues. We conclude that a more integrated model setting is called for in order to explain the dynamic interactions observed in reality. Third, we discuss at length the economic assumptions underlying our model. This avoids multiple repetition later on. Finally, we outline the structure of the thesis and the objectives we pursue in the different chapters. 1. 1 Motivation Fiscal policy and financial market reactions are increasingly receiving world wide attention. The most recent examples are the Maastricht criteria about flScal control, the South-East Asia financial crisis and the resulting IMF policy stance, the high level of public debt in developed and developing countries and the effect on interest rates and economic growth. In contrast to the still underdeveloped theoretical literature on these dynamic links, finding empirical evidence that supports the existence of these links is not a very hard task.




Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates in the European Union


Book Description

This is an extensive study concerned with the potential effects of fiscal policy on financial markets in the EU. It takes into account the gradual liberalization of capital movements through Western Europe & the framework of the European Monetary System.




Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model


Book Description

We examine the role of government spending in the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates. Is the quantity of risk related government spending important for the price of risk? How does it depend on monetary policy conduct? Can fiscal policy immunize its impact on the term structure of interest rates? To answer this questions, we explore asset pricing implications of fiscal policy in what become paradigm in dynamic general equilibrium macro-finance literature. We break down the transmission of the government spending to macroeconomic attributes driving the dynamic response of the yield curve, both analytically and numerically. The novelty of our approach lies in the way we quantify the decomposition of pricing kernel. We find that rise in fiscal uncertainty amplifies the hedging property of bonds against real and nominal risks. Depending on the size of uncertainty monetary policy drives up the price of nominal risk. Spending reversals break the link between quantity and price of fiscal risk.













The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy


Book Description

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on the term structure of interest rates. The effects of temporary versus permanent, unanticipated versus anticipated, policy disturbances and the responses of long versus short, and real versus nominal, rates are contrasted. The main results are summarized in a series of propositions. Among them, the finding that an unanticipated permanent fiscal expansion impacts more on long-term rates, may help explain their observed excessive volatility. The effects of structural changes on the relative variances are also discussed, with the effect which operates through the impact on private speculative behavior being emphasized.







An Equilibrium Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates with the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy


Book Description

In this paper I jointly derive the stochastic process of the price level, the inflation rate, the nominal and real term structures, as function of monetary, fiscal and technological parameters within a general equilibrium framework. The novelty of the present approach is given by the possibility of obtaining closed form solutions for all the variables and by the explicit design of fiscal policy as a crucial parameter in addition to monetary policy. Thus, as stated from FTPL, inflation is not uniquely a monetary phoenomenon, but also fiscal policy plays a crucial role in determining the position of the nominal spot curve and term structure of intererest rates. The risky factors of nominal and real term structures depend upon different factors, when the utility function is strongly separable in both output and real money balances. If not, monetary and fiscal parameters affect only nominal equilibrium. The principal realtionships derived of the model are then simulated for diffrent values of policy parameters. The main conclusion is that fiscal policy parameters play a crucial role in term structure patterns, as recently observed by the perfmance of nominal rates for some countries (like Italy, fore example) after having joined the EMU.