Book Description

With the end of the bloc-to-bloc system, Europe is likely to face the renewal of many historical tensions that were temporarily suppressed in the postwar era, as well as new sources of instability. To maintain peace and stability in the future, there is a need to adopt security arrangements to respond to these challenges. This Note defines a set of alternative security models that could emerge in the next 5 to 10 years, examines the models' strengths and weaknesses, and assesses their implications for U.S. policy in Europe. Although the United States has many objectives in its policy toward Europe, the principal goal analyzed in this Note is ensuring transnational stability. The authors define transnational stability as preserving international borders and established governments against forcible change by other nations. The former Soviet Union continues to pose a threat to stability because of its formidable conventional and nuclear forces. At the same time, new threats to stability are emerging as the collapse of the Soviet empire and the erosion of the bipolar system unleash long-suppressed tensions and conflicts throughout Europe. These threats can be characterized by the likelihood and the seriousness of the threat. Judged by this standard, the residual threat from the former Soviet Union to the West is the most serious threat to stability but the least likely to occur; internal conflicts are the most likely to occur but least disruptive to stability. The five security models for addressing European security problems are as follows: (1) ad hoc alliances, (2) NATO dominant, (3) united Europe, (4) collective security, and (5) overlapping security institutions. Of the five models, the overlapping institutions model is best because it preserves a political and military role for the United States, creates alternative links for U.S. involvement in Europe beyond NATO, and shows U.S. willingness to adapt to a stronger European role in security. (2 tables, 1 figure)7.