Focal Points in Framed Games


Book Description

Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another's speech. So the LORD scattered them abroad from thence upon the face of all the earth: and they left off to built the city. (Genesis 11.7-8) 1.1 Static Focal Points 1.1.1 Coordination In real life, people quite often face situations in which they prefer to act in the same way, but they are not particular about the concrete way of acting. Some examples are given below: Credit cards: Buyers want to possess the credit cards potential sellers do accept. Also, sellers wish to have contracted the credit card company the credit cards of which potential customers usually carry along. For both, basically, it is all the same which credit card this is. What matters is that both choices coincide. Communication, information transmission: The transmission of in formation requires that the signals used have the same meaning to both the sender and the receiver. But it is inessential which signal has a certain mean ing. In verbal communication, this basically means that the people involved use the same (natural) language, though even then some ambiguities remain. Things are a bit more difficult for non-verbal communication, for example data transmission between computers-both sides have to use the same or compatible protocols. Again, what matters is the protocols to be the same for both sides.




Focal Points in Negotiation


Book Description

​Focal Points in Negotiation is the first work of its kind to analyze the use of focal points beyond the controlled setting of the laboratory or the stylized context of mathematical game theory, in the real world of negotiation. It demonstrates that there are many more ways focal points influence real life situations than the specific, predetermined roles ascribed to them by game theory and rational choice. The book establishes this by identifying the numerous different, often decisive, modes in which focal points function in the various phases of complex negotiations. In doing so, it also demonstrates the necessity of a thorough understanding of focal points for mediators, negotiators, and others. A scholarly work in nature, Focal Points in Negotiation is also suitable for use in the classroom and accessible for a multidisciplinary audience.




A Theory of Interregional Dynamics


Book Description

Over more than two centuries the development of economic theory has created a wide array of different theories, concepts and results. Nevertheless, there is no general theory, which mrifies these varied theories into a comprehensive one. Economics has been split between partial and conflicting representations of the functioning of market economies. We have a collection of separate theories such as the Marxian economics, the Keynesian economics, the general equilibrium theory, and the neoclassical growth theory. These diverse economic theories have co-existed but not in a structured relationship with each other. Economic students are trained to understand economic phenomena by severally incompatible theories one by one in the same course. Since the end of Second Wodd War many crises in economic theory have been announced. The economist experienced the crisis of the general equilibrium economics, the crisis of the neoclassical growth economics, the crisis of the Keynesian economics, not to mention the crises of the Marxian economics. It is quite reasonable to expect the loss of confidence in theoretical economics even among professional economists after so many crises in a very short period of time. But a crisis offers new opportmrities for change, either for better or for worse. The past crises in theoretical economics may be perceived as a historical opportmrity to construct a general economic theory by which the traditional theories are integrated into a higher whole.




Efficiency versus Sustainability in Dynamic Decision Making


Book Description

To all who taught me, and to all who will. Over the past fifteen years the notions of efficiency and sustainability have, more than any others, influenced the academic and public discussion concerning the intertemporal allocation of resources, especially as regards the economics of growth and environment. This treatise formally develops and counterposes these notions by means of the construct of a trajectorial objective, which is here developed, along with its implications, as a natural advance upon the classical scalar objective. In the course of this study it becomes clear that efficiency and sustainability are by no means identical, given that efficiency, on the one hand, is the concept for avoiding wasteful behavior, and sustainability, on the other, is the concept for ensuring that certain critical aspiration levels, which usually reflect the wish for survival, are maintained. Nonetheless, contrary to what may be assumed, these two concepts do not generally yield mutually exclusive solutions; in fact, they can be combined to complement each other in the quest for unimprovable long-term solutions which sustain given and necessary aspiration levels. This treatise develops and analyzes dynamic decision models (DDM) with one trajectorial objective according to the methodology of multi criteria decision making (MCDM). Moreover, introducing the method of distance maximization crucially augments MCDM and proves to be invaluable for DDMs in the case of a nonexistent utopia trajectory as well as in the case of sustainability as objective.




Capacity Reservation for Capital-intensive Technologies


Book Description

Arguably the central problem in operations research and management science (OR/MS) addressed by e-Business is better coordination of supply and de mand, including price discovery and reduction of transactions costs of buyer seller interactions. In capital-intensive industries like chemicals and steel, the out-of-pocket costs of excess capacity and the opportunity costs of underuti lized capacity have been important factors driving the growth of exchanges for improving demand and supply coordination through e-Business platforms. Stefan Spinler addresses in his dissertation one of the most interesting aspects of this evolution for OR/MS, the parallel development of long-term and short-term markets for capacity and output, accompanied by a range of exotic options and forwards as the basic mechanisms supporting transac tions. This is a fascinating research topic because it builds on the powerful framework of real options, while connecting directly to key operations deci sions (capacity planning, staffing, maintenance, and so forth) of the plants and technologies whose output is the focus of contracts. From the perspec tive of practice, the use of these contracting mechanisms, as facilitated by a new breed of B2B exchanges, represents an opportunity for further improving supply chain performance and capital asset productivity.




The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk


Book Description

This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.




Coping with Uncertainty


Book Description

Ongoing global changes pose fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. Uncertainty can dominate, as in the climate change debates. Increasing the resolution of models does not always yield sufficient certainty. This book presents much-needed new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty.




Real Options and Intellectual Property


Book Description

This book proposes an integrated approach to patent risk and capital budgeting in pharmaceutical research and development (R and D), developing an option-based view (OBV) of imperfect patent protection, which draws upon contingent-claims analysis, stochastic game theory, as well as novel numerical methods. The text re-initiates a discussion about the contribution of quantitative frameworks to value-based R and D management.




Strategic Closed-Loop Supply Chain Management


Book Description

The structure of this book follows the decision-making process of Original Equipment Manufacturers investigating the potential of closed loops, including fundamental questions managers must answer when planning a circular supply chain: Does a closed loop fit corporate objectives? Is it profitable? How should OEMs deal with free-rider competition? Which product/technology/location setup leads to a profit-maximizing supply chain? The book includes case studies from the tire and the computer industry.




Sovereign Default Risk Valuation


Book Description

Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.