Force Planning in an Era of Uncertainty


Book Description

The uncertainty of the post-Cold War world has left defense planners and analysts debating the proper force planning methodology to pursue, and opened a broader debate concerning the size and purpose of the U.S. military establishment. The author argues that post-Cold War force planning must be founded on a logical integration of threat- and capabilities-based planning methodologies. He addresses the issue of the two Major Regional Contingency (MRC) force-sizing paradigm. The author concludes that in a world characterized by uncertainty and regional instability, the two MRC framework constitutes a logical basis for organizing U.S. defense planning efforts.




Geopolitics


Book Description

Writers, observers, and practitioners of international politics frequently invoke the term "geopolitics" to describe, explain, or analyze specific foreign policy issues and problems. Such generalized usage ignores the fact that geopolitics as a method of understanding international relations has a history that includes a common vocabulary, well-established if sometimes conflicting concepts, an extensive body of thought, and a recognized group of theorists and scholars. In Geopolitics, Francis P. Sempa presents a history of geopolitical thought and applies its classical analyses to Cold War and post-Cold War international relations. While mindful of the impact of such concepts as "globalization" and the "information revolution" on our understanding of contemporary events, Sempa emphasizes traditional geopolitical theories in explaining the outcome of the Cold War. He shows that, the struggle between the Western allies and the Soviet empire was unique in its ideological component and nuclear standoff, the Cold War fits into a recurring geopolitical pattern. It can be seen as a consequence of competition between land powers and sea powers, and between a potential Eurasian hegemonic power and a coalition of states opposed to that would-be hegemony. The collapse of the Soviet empire ended the most recent threat to global stability. Acting as a successor to the British Empire, the United States organized, funded, and led a grand coalition that successfully countered the Soviet quest for domination. No power or alliance posed an immediate threat to the global balance of power. Indeed, the end of the Cold War generated hopes for a "new world order" and predictions that economics would replace geopolitics as the driving force in international politics. Russian instability, the nuclear dimension of the India-Pakistan conflict, and Chinese bids for dominance have turned the Asia-Pacific region into what Mahan called "debatable and debated ground." Russia, Turkey, Iran, India, Pakistan, China, Japan, the Koreas, and the United States all have interests that collide in one or more of the areas of this region.




Mcdp 5 Planning


Book Description

This publication describes the theory and philosophy of military planning as practiced by the U.S. Marine Corps. The intent is to describe how we can prepare effectively for future action when the future is uncertain and unpredictable. In so doing, this publication provides all Marines a conceptual framework for planning in peace, in crisis, or in war. This approach to planning is based on our common understanding of the nature of war and on our warfighting philosophy of maneuver warfare as described in Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication (MCDP) 1, Warfighting.




The Scenario-planning Handbook


Book Description

The primary objective of the book is to provide decisionmakers the insight and means to apply this technique in changing the way they think about and plan for the future. Scenario-based strategy both confronts and deals with uncertainty and leads to a strategy that is focused but resilient, specific but flexible. The handbook guides readers step by step through the sequence and intricacies of a scenario project and the subsequent strategic decision-making. It explains what scenarios are and are not, when they are needed, as well as their uses and benefits. It also deals with cultural and organizational changes that an organization must undertake to maximize the benefits of scenario-based planning.




The Uncertainty Doctrine


Book Description

The first account of narrative politics in US defense policy surrounding the end of the Cold War. This book will appeal to a broad readership group including Foreign Policy Analysis, (Critical) Security Studies, and International Relations. It will also be useful for courses on American politics.




Alternative Futures and Army Force Planning. Implications for the Future Force Era


Book Description

Predicting the friture is almost always fraught with uncertainty. How- ever, Army force developers working to plan a force capable of meet- ing the challenges of the 2025 timeframe (the Future Force era) face more uncertainty than most. Today's world, especially in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war, exhibits a level of dynamism and change not seen during the comparatively static decades of the Cold War-times when the drivers of U.S. secu- rity policy were relatively fixed and their demands upon the Army easily identified. This study has attempted to help the Army deal with the task of long-term force planning by using the tool of alternative futures analysis. Rather than positing a single point estimate of the 2025 fli- ture and trying to defend it, we chose to help the Army bound the future by laying out a representative spectrum of different "future worlds" in the hope that they would illustrate the complete universe of future missions.




Force Planning Considerations for Army XXI


Book Description

The U.S. Army has moved along the path of preparing for the 21st century. This process began with the conceptual examinations and assessments carried out under the "Louisiana Maneuvers" and the Army's Battle Labs, and matured through the Force XXI process. The Army recently completed its first series of Advanced Warfighting Experiments that will shape the redesign and restructure of the future force, Army XXI, for the early years of the new millennium. While the broad outlines of Army XXI have been sketched out, many of the details remain to be filled in. Undoubtedly, these efforts will be influenced by the recent reports of the Quadrennial Defense Review (May 1997) and the National Defense Panel (December 1997). Indeed, debates over details of the force structure and the ultimate size of the Army are not likely to abate any time soon. To assist in the further conceptual development, Dr. William T. Johnsen places Army XXI in a broad strategic context. He briefly examines the anticipated international security environment and the roles that the U.S. Armed Forces and the Army can be expected to perform. He then assesses a wide range of general factors that will influence the capabilities needed to carry out the anticipated roles. Finally, he examines general and specific criteria that can be used to determine the appropriate size of Army XXI.




The Fog of Peace and War Planning


Book Description

How do we plan under conditions of uncertainty? The perspective of military planners is a key organizing framework: do they see themselves as preparing to administer a peace, or preparing to fight a future war? Most interwar volumes examine only the 1920s and the 1930s. This new volume goes back, and forward in time, to draw on a greater expanse of history in order to tease out lessons for contemporary planners. These chapters are grouped into four periods: 1815-1856, 1871-1914, 1918-1938, and post-Second World War. They progress from low-tech to high-tech concerns, for example, the first period examines armies, while the second period examines navies, the third asseses navies combined with air forces, and finally for the Kaiser chapter explores nuclear issues and decision-making.