The Uncertainty Doctrine


Book Description

The first account of narrative politics in US defense policy surrounding the end of the Cold War. This book will appeal to a broad readership group including Foreign Policy Analysis, (Critical) Security Studies, and International Relations. It will also be useful for courses on American politics.




Force Planning Considerations for Army XXI


Book Description

The U.S. Army has moved along the path of preparing for the 21st century. This process began with the conceptual examinations and assessments carried out under the "Louisiana Maneuvers" and the Army's Battle Labs, and matured through the Force XXI process. The Army recently completed its first series of Advanced Warfighting Experiments that will shape the redesign and restructure of the future force, Army XXI, for the early years of the new millennium. While the broad outlines of Army XXI have been sketched out, many of the details remain to be filled in. Undoubtedly, these efforts will be influenced by the recent reports of the Quadrennial Defense Review (May 1997) and the National Defense Panel (December 1997). Indeed, debates over details of the force structure and the ultimate size of the Army are not likely to abate any time soon. To assist in the further conceptual development, Dr. William T. Johnsen places Army XXI in a broad strategic context. He briefly examines the anticipated international security environment and the roles that the U.S. Armed Forces and the Army can be expected to perform. He then assesses a wide range of general factors that will influence the capabilities needed to carry out the anticipated roles. Finally, he examines general and specific criteria that can be used to determine the appropriate size of Army XXI.




Defence Planning and Uncertainty


Book Description

How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.




Revising the Two MTW Force Shaping Paradigm


Book Description

One of the most important elements of U.S. military strategy for the past 10 years has been the belief that a force able to fight two nearly simultaneous major theater wars of the DESERT STORM type would be capable of dealing with the full gamut of security challenges that the United States is likely to face. These essays from a wide range of scholars, analysts, government officials, and uniformed thinkers represent their views of the question of a force shaping paradigm for the U.S. military. They vary widely on assumptions, analytical parameters, and recommendations.







Presidential Policies and the Road to the Second Iraq War


Book Description

By virtually any means of measurement, postwar Iraq has become a more bloodied and embattled settlement than ever envisaged. But were the seeds of these problems sown long before military force had been committed? This lucid and detailed examination of US foreign policy evaluates the continuity and divergence in the strategies of the Bush, Clinton and Bush Jr administrations and their efforts to respond to the Iraqi threat, and how those strategies have bequeathed a legacy of problems to those trying to rebuild a postwar Iraq. Offering the most comprehensive analysis of the dynamics that paved the way for renewed conflict in Iraq, the book provides a descriptive account of attempts to confront a host of political pressures, from the need for international cooperation in postwar Iraq, to dealing with the influx of foreign fighters and their quest to force American withdrawal. This essential volume provides analysts, observers and policy makers with guidelines and prescriptions about the future of postwar Iraq and detailed analysis of lessons learned both during and after the military and reconstruction phases.







Force Planning in an Era of Uncertainty


Book Description

Colonel John F. Troxell first asserts that there is a false dichotomy being drawn between capabilities-based and threat-based force planning. He argues that post-Cold War force planning must be founded on a logical integration of threat- and capabilities-based planning methodologies. He then addresses the issue of the two Major Regional Contingency (MRC) force-sizing paradigm. After reviewing all the arguments made against that paradigm, Colonel Troxell concludes that in a world characterized by uncertainty and regional instability, in which the United States has global security interests and a unique leadership role, the two MRC framework constitutes a logical scheme for organizing U.S. defense planning efforts. That framework is also flexible enough to accommodate adjustments to the U.S. defense establishment, both today and for the immediate future. New approaches to planning scenarios and the operational concept for employing forces offer the potential for such adjustments concerning the "ways" of the strategic paradigm, while force thinning and modernization are two important categories for adjusting the affordability of the strategic "means." At some point, changes in the international security environment will demand significantly different approaches to shaping U.S. forces. But, given the QDR's ringing endorsement of the two MRC construct, that change will be a 21st, rather than a 20th, century undertaking.