Forecasting Financial Markets in India


Book Description

Papers presented at the Forecasting Financial Markets in India, held at Kharagpur during 29-31 December 2008.




Forecasting Financial Markets


Book Description

Plummer provides an in-depth assessment of the phenomenon of cycles and patterns of economic and financial activity in order to make money in the world's financial markets.




Forecasting the Stock Index Movements of India


Book Description

Prediction of financial markets, especially prediction of highly volatile stochastic stock market indices, plays a crucial role in identifying profitable investment avenues by the financial investors at large. The investing community encompasses retail investors, financial institutions, investment banks and Foreign Institutional Investors who look for the creation of wealth in the form of capital appreciation and earning the title of ownership of business enterprises by investing in the securities market, through buying and selling of shares of stock exchange listed corporate entities. The forecasting of dynamic financial market movements is one of the scientific endeavours which demands a great deal of market intelligence, financial acumen and domain knowledge of the characteristics of behavioural finance in a wider spectrum. This paper aims to discuss the non-linear movement pattern/trend of the most active two stock indices of India, namely, the Sensex and Nifty, during the study period from 2009-2015 by applying the traditional logistic regression method and one of the neural network tools, namely, k-nearest neighbourhood algorithm. This study would help the investors to streamline their investment patterns and strategies in order to take well informed investment decisions and optimize their stock returns by using the relevant market information.




An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India


Book Description

Project Report from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , course: Ph. D, language: English, abstract: Every modern economy is based on a sound financial system and acts as a monetary channel for productive purpose with effecting economic growth. It encourages saving habit by throwing open and plethora of instrument avenues suiting to the individuals requirements, mobilizing savings from households and other segments and allocating savings into productive usage such as trade, commerce, manufacture etc. Thus a financial system can also be understood as institutional arrangements, through which financial surpluses are mobilized from the units generating surplus income and transferring them to the others in need of them. In nutshell, financial market, financial assets, financial services and financial institutions constitute the financial system. The activities include exchange and holding of financial assets or instruments of different kinds of financial institutions, banks and other intermediaries of the market. Financial markets provide channels for allocation of savings to investment and provide variety of assets to savers in various forms in which the investors can park their funds. At the same time, financial market is one that integral part of the financial system which makes significant contribution to the countries’ economic development. It establishes a link between the demand and supply of long-term capital funds. The economic strength of a country depends squarely on the state of financial market, apart from the productive potential of the country. The efficient allocation of fund by the capital market depends on the state of capital market. All the countries therefore focus more on the functioning of the capital market. Indian financial market has faced many challenges in the process of effecting more efficient allocation and mobilization of capital. It has attained a remarkable degree of growth in the last decade and in continuing to achieve the same in current decade also. Opening up of the economy and adoption of the liberalized economic policies have driven our economy more towards the free market. Over the last few years, financial markets, more specifically the security market were experiencing a lot of structural and regulatory changes. The major constituents of financial market are money market and the capital market catering to the type of capital requirements.




Forecasting India's NIFTY IT Index


Book Description

Master's Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1, , language: English, abstract: The purpose of this research is to forecast the following day's closing price for a specific share of a company in the stock market using the "Hidden Markov Model". In this paper, the "Hidden Markov Model" is used to predict some of the stocks of interconnected airline markets. The researchers have developed the "Hidden Markov Model" for forecasting time series. As a result of its ability to model dynamic systems, this model is widely used for the recognition of model and problem classifications. In this article, the researchers examined trends in the historical data set. They inserted the appropriate neighboring prices to the datasets and predicted the next day's exchange. Data collection was secondary. The secondary market was collected from Southwest Airlines for 1.5 years (approximately) from September 17, 2002, to December 16, 2004. The observations of the input data are continuous rather than discrete. The sample size is 4 airline firms (British Airlines, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Ryanair Holdings Ltd.) The NIFTY IT index captures the performance of the Indian Information Technology (IT) companies. The NIFTY IT index consists of 10 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The IT sector in India has been recording tremendous growth over the years, where it accounts for a growth rate of 7.5 percent per annum. Time series analysis is a statistical tool that can be used in forecasting the prices of financial assets. In the current study, the NIFTY IT index was forecasted from past data collected over a 10 year period spanning from 2011 to 2020. An ARIMA model is fit and used to forecast the NIFTY IT index. Forecasted values were different from actual prices, suggesting that more influencing independent variables must be include, to improve the model accuracy.




Financial Markets in India


Book Description




Revisiting the Indian Financial Sector


Book Description

This book provides perspectives on the latest developments and pertinent issues in the Indian financial sector in current times. The reforms initiated in the nineties in the financial sector have transformed the way financial markets and institutions function today. However, certain sectors like banking, and markets like the capital market have undergone sea changes. The research contributions in this book focus on the issues pertaining to such sectors like banking, NBFCs and the stock market. The opening up of financial markets and emergence of institutional investors have been a significant phenomenon in the Indian context. At this backdrop of increasing financial integration, the impact of financial liberalisation on the overall development of the sector, and how the global policies and events influence the Indian financial sector, are analysed in the book. The emergence of new regulations in the capital markets to instill more discipline and transparency, have also changed the way corporates take financing decisions. For example, regulatory authorities are continuously reviewing norms pertaining to issues like promoters’ shareholding owing to risks arising from excessive leverage and the linkages between financial intermediaries. Corporate governance, environmental aspects are some important additions in corporate financing norms in the recent past. The book incorporates a discussion on this, too. Apart from these, the book also has incorporated several aspects on an emerging concept called financial inclusion, its measurement and constraints to achieve the same. And finally, at the backdrop of the disruption created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact on the Indian capital market is also discussed. Contributions are based on rigorous empirical research and incorporate the perspectives of renowned academicians in the field of finance and financial economics across the country. Apart from the research community, this book will also be helpful for financial analysts working in the financial sector to have some idea about the current issues, the direction of research on those issues and different perspectives on them.




FORECASTING MANAGEMENT: Futurism on Management


Book Description

This book explores the applications of intermarket analysis, which analyzes the relationships between financial markets and their influences on each other. It examines the critical role that intermartket analysis plays in assisting traders to identify and anticipate changes in market directions in today's globally interconnected financial markets. This bbok is oriented towards practical implementations. Students as well as professionals will find this book very useful.




Cash Flow Forecasting


Book Description

Budgets are like road maps -- they provide a direction for a corporates financial management. Balance sheets and statements of revenues also provide insights into how well a company is following that direction. But cash flow and cash flow forecasts are what guide the day-to-day itinerary for an organization. Budgets and cash flow are dynamic -- adjustments and changes can and should occur. If you understand what you are looking at, you can use cash flow to create better budgets and thus more accurate cash flow forecasting. Cash Flow Forecasting outlines the techniques required to undertake a detailed analysis of the cash flow dynamics of the business from both a historical and forward looking perspective. Cash Flow Forecasting explains how to: * Determine appropriate cash flow figures from pro forma financial statements * Interpret detailed cash flow forecasts and understand the difference between profit and cash flow * Conserve or generate cash in the short term * Evaluate different methods of project evaluation * Recognize the limitations of accounting information in valuing companies *Inspired by basic entry level training courses that have been developed by major international banks worldwide * Will enable students and those already in the finance profession to gain an understanding of the basic information and principles of cash flow forecasting * Includes questions with answers, study topics, practical "real world" examples and extensive bibliography




Quantum Trading


Book Description

A cutting-edge guide to quantum trading Original and thought-provoking, Quantum Trading presents a compelling new way to look at technical analysis and will help you use the proven principles of modern physics to forecast financial markets. In it, author Fabio Oreste shows how both the theory of relativity and quantum physics is required to makes sense of price behavior and forecast intermediate and long-term tops and bottoms. He relates his work to that of legendary trader W.D. Gann and reveals how Gann's somewhat esoteric theories are consistent with his applications of Einstein's theory of relativity and quantum theory to price behavior. Applies concepts from modern science to financial market forecasting Shows how to generate support/resistance areas and identify potential market turning points Addresses how non-linear approaches to trading can be used to both understand and forecast market prices While no trading approach is perfect, the techniques found within these pages have enabled the author to achieve a very attractive annual return since 2002. See what his insights can do for you.