The Making of National Economic Forecasts


Book Description

In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.




Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art


Book Description

An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.




An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side


Book Description

The aim of this paper is to provide some insights on the estimation and forecasting of Ukrainian GDP from the supply side. The aggregate output is modeled on the basis of the aggregate production function estimated from official data on 33 branches of the economy. Later, the model was enhanced by allowing for some level of disaggregation. In this attempt, production functions for major sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services etc.) were estimated separately to help account for industry peculiarities. Though the theory underlying this study is straightforward, the Ukrainian context in which it was applied assures a challenge for a researcher. The major difficulties are linked to the transitional state of the economy, characterized by structural flaws, considerable changes in statistical methodology, poor quality of data, very short time series, inconsistency of some indicators, lack of stable economic relationships and a significant shadow economy.




The Economics of Supply and Demand


Book Description

Lectures on the economics of supply and demand - discusses related economic theories, implementation of supply side economic policies (incl. Incomes policy and indexation), supply-side economic modeling, challenges to Keynesian economics from the supply side, Rational Expectations and monetarism, etc.; includes simulations of the global impact of petroleum price increases. Bibliography, graphs and references.




Forecasting for Economics and Business


Book Description

For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.




Short-term Forecasting Economic Activity in Germany


Book Description

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides usually yield different results and the official GDP release is somewhere in between. We make use of this statistical procedure by separately modeling the two sides of GDP in a system of bridge equations at the most disaggregate level available and combining the resulting two aggregate GDP forecasts. Comparing several specification schemes in an out-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second, that combining the production side and the demand side projections substantially improves the forecast performance, in particular for the shorter forecast horizons.