Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal


Book Description

A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.




Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal


Book Description

A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.




Techniques for Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty


Book Description

The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.










Engineering Project Appraisal


Book Description

In most cases of civil engineering development, a range of alternative schemes meeting project goals are feasible, so some form of evaluation must be carried out to select the most appropriate to take forward. Evaluation criteria usually include the economic, environmental and social contexts of a project as well as the engineering challenges, so engineers must be familiar with the processes and tools used. The second edition of Engineering Project Appraisal equips students with the understanding and analytical tools to carry out effective appraisals of alternative development schemes, using both economic and non-economic criteria. The building blocks of economic appraisal are covered early, leading to techniques such as net present worth, internal rate of return and annual worth. Cost Benefit Analysis is dealt with in detail, together with related methods such as Cost Effectiveness and the Goal Achievement Matrix. The text also details three multi-criteria models which have proved useful in the evaluation of proposals in the transportation, solid waste, energy and water resources fields: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and Concordance Analysis. There is a full discussion dealing with risk and uncertainty in these models. With many worked examples and case studies, Engineering Project Appraisal is an essential text for both undergraduate and postgraduate students on professional civil engineering courses, and it is expected that students on planning and construction management courses will find it a valuable addition to their reading.




Technological Change from Inside


Book Description










Do Price Increases for Staple Foods Help Or Hurt the Rural Poor?


Book Description

In the short run the rural rich in Bangladesh are likely to gain, and the rural poor to lose, from an increase in the relative price of food staples in a food producing economy. But in the long run the welfare of a typical poor household will be neutral to such price increases (after allowing for wage adjustment), and the poorest households will benefit somewhat.