Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models


Book Description

One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.




Forecasting: principles and practice


Book Description

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.




Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models


Book Description

In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.




Dynamic Linear Models with R


Book Description

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.




Dynamic Regression Models of Forecasting Indicators of Social and Economic Security


Book Description

Dynamic multi-factor regression models make it possible to take into account the dynamics of the proportions of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security and indicators in the retrospective period. The defects of such a model include the complexity of selecting indicators and determining their values in the lead period, the difficulty of forming multivariate static regression models, the development of predictive models of regression coefficients. Without paying attention to the statistical significance of multivariate models used to form a dynamic model, the values of regression coefficients over the years have all the chances to fluctuate significantly in the time series of these coefficients. The alternately decreasing or rising regression coefficients due to the modification of the impact of indicators on the dynamics of the values of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security often does not allow to create a forecast model.







Applied Econometrics with R


Book Description

R is a language and environment for data analysis and graphics. It may be considered an implementation of S, an award-winning language initially - veloped at Bell Laboratories since the late 1970s. The R project was initiated by Robert Gentleman and Ross Ihaka at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and has been developed by an international team since mid-1997. Historically, econometricians have favored other computing environments, some of which have fallen by the wayside, and also a variety of packages with canned routines. We believe that R has great potential in econometrics, both for research and for teaching. There are at least three reasons for this: (1) R is mostly platform independent and runs on Microsoft Windows, the Mac family of operating systems, and various ?avors of Unix/Linux, and also on some more exotic platforms. (2) R is free software that can be downloaded and installed at no cost from a family of mirror sites around the globe, the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN); hence students can easily install it on their own machines. (3) R is open-source software, so that the full source code is available and can be inspected to understand what it really does, learn from it, and modify and extend it. We also like to think that platform independence and the open-source philosophy make R an ideal environment for reproducible econometric research.




Dynamic Regression Models for Survival Data


Book Description

In survival analysis there has long been a need for models that goes beyond the Cox model as the proportional hazards assumption often fails in practice. This book studies and applies modern flexible regression models for survival data with a special focus on extensions of the Cox model and alternative models with the specific aim of describing time-varying effects of explanatory variables. One model that receives special attention is Aalen’s additive hazards model that is particularly well suited for dealing with time-varying effects. The book covers the use of residuals and resampling techniques to assess the fit of the models and also points out how the suggested models can be utilised for clustered survival data. The authors demonstrate the practically important aspect of how to do hypothesis testing of time-varying effects making backwards model selection strategies possible for the flexible models considered. The use of the suggested models and methods is illustrated on real data examples. The methods are available in the R-package timereg developed by the authors, which is applied throughout the book with worked examples for the data sets. This gives the reader a unique chance of obtaining hands-on experience. This book is well suited for statistical consultants as well as for those who would like to see more about the theoretical justification of the suggested procedures. It can be used as a textbook for a graduate/master course in survival analysis, and students will appreciate the exercises included after each chapter. The applied side of the book with many worked examples accompanied with R-code shows in detail how one can analyse real data and at the same time gives a deeper understanding of the underlying theory. Torben Martinussen is at the Department of Natural Sciences at the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University. He has a Ph.D. from University of Copenhagen and is associate editor of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. Thomas Scheike is at the Department of Biostatistics at University of Copenhagen. He has a Ph.D. from University of California at Berkeley and is Doctor of Science at the University of Copenhagen. He is the editor of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics and associate editor of several other journals.




The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting


Book Description

Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.




Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting


Book Description

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.