The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa


Book Description

In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.




Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies


Book Description

This proceedings volume contains papers accepted by the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies (CONF-BPS 2023), which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editorial team of the conference. This volume presents the latest research achievements, inspirations, and applications in applied economy, finance, enterprise management, public administration, and policy studies. CONF-BPS 2023 was a hybrid conference that includes several workshops (offline and online) around the world in Cardiff (Jan, 2023), London(Feb, 2023) and Sydney (Feb, 2023). Prof. Canh Thien Dang from King's College London, Prof. Arman Eshraghi from Cardiff Business School, and Prof. Kristle Romero Cortés from UNSW Business School have chaired those offline workshop.




Assessing Aid


Book Description

Assessing Aid determines that the effectiveness of aid is not decided by the amount received but rather the institutional and policy environment into which it is accepted. It examines how development assistance can be more effective at reducing global poverty and gives five mainrecommendations for making aid more effective: targeting financial aid to poor countries with good policies and strong economic management; providing policy-based aid to demonstrated reformers; using simpler instruments to transfer resources to countries with sound management; focusing projects oncreating and transmitting knowledge and capacity; and rethinking the internal incentives of aid agencies.




On the Duration of Civil War


Book Description

The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.




Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate


Book Description

This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel cointegration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation effect-almost seven times that of foreign direct investment or bank loans-and private transfers have the lowest effect. Using a de facto measure of exchange rate flexibility, we find that a more flexible exchange rate helps to dampen appreciation of the real exchange rate stemming from capital inflows.




Explaining Civil War


Book Description

Conflict is now identified as one of the most significant sources of development failure and thus of growing income divergence between nations. Dr. Murshed s book addresses the issues of weak institutions, conflict, and slow growth. It presents a synthesis of the existing theories, and provides many new insights. It will certainly be much consulted and read by academics, policy-makers and all those who are interested in the causes of conflict and post-conflict reconstruction. Branko Milanovic, The World Bank Masterfully integrating the logic of formal economic models, the insights of normative philosophy, and evidence from empirical analysis, Syed Mansoob Murshed explains civil wars. This is a brilliant, original work. Scott Gates, PRIO and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway This masterly book succinctly surveys contemporary literature on the sources of conflict in developing countries as well as policies to secure a stable peace, including many insightful contributions by the author. The treatment of this important but controversial field is both informative and well balanced. It should be essential reading for all students and policy makers who believe that policy should be evidence-based. Frances Stewart, University of Oxford, UK Using the rational choice approach, Syed Mansoob Murshed analyses the motivations behind civil war and identifies growth and institutional failure as catalysts of the greed and grievance that characterise the onset and persistence of civil war. This book explores the pre-conditions for conflict in terms of growth failure and critically appraises the greed and grievance theories common to conflict literature. It is argued that various institutional mechanisms of restraint that can be labeled the social contract are crucial for violent conflict avoidance. The reasons underpinning the instability of treaties ending civil wars, post-conflict reconstruction issues, liberal peace theory, and how globalization and conflict relate are also examined. Explaining Civil War will be of interest to development economists and political scientists, as well as to students and researchers of political economy and conflict studies.




Post-Conflict Recovery


Book Description

This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.




The Economics of World War I


Book Description

This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.




The Impact of Capital and Foreign Exchange Flowson the Competitiveness of Developing Countries


Book Description

Attracting capital and foreign exchange flows is crucial for developing countries. Yet, these flows could lead to real exchange rate appreciation and may thus have detrimental effects on competitiveness, jeopardizing exports and growth. This paper investigates this dilemma by comparing the impact of six types of capital and foreign exchange flows on real exchange rate behavior in a sample of 57 developing countries covering Africa, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The results reveal that portfolio investments, foreign borrowing, aid, and income lead to real exchange rate appreciation, while remittances have disparate effects across regions. Foreign direct investments have no effect on the real exchange rate, contributing to resolve the above dilemma.




Peace and Conflict 2016


Book Description

An authoritative source of information on violent conflicts and peacebuilding processes around the world, Peace and Conflict is an annual publication of the University of Maryland’s Center for International Development and Conflict Management and the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva). The contents of the 2016 edition are divided into three sections: » Global Patterns and Trends provides an overview of recent advances in scholarly research on various aspects of conflict and peace, as well as chapters on armed conflict, violence against civilians, non-state armed actors, democracy and ethnic exclusion, terrorism, defense spending and arms production and procurement, peace agreements, state repression, foreign aid, and the results of the Peace & Conflict Instability Ledger, which ranks the status and progress of more than 160 countries based on their forecasted risk of future instability. » Special Feature spotlights work on measuring micro-level welfare effects of exposure to conflict. » Profiles has been enlarged to survey developments in instances of civil wars, peacekeeping missions, and international criminal justice proceedings that were active around the world during 2014. Frequent visualizations of data in full-color, large-format tables, graphs, and maps bring the analysis to life and amplify crucial developments in real-world events and the latest findings in research. The contributors include many leading scholars in the field from the US and Europe.