Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks and Real Activity in the Euro Area
Author : Filippo Arigoni
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 41,26 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :
Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty
Author : Nina Biljanovska
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 43,36 MB
Release : 2017-11-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484325036
Book Description
High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of for- eign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic ac- tivity. Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re- duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
International Effects of Euro Area Versus US Policy Uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach
Author : Ansgar Belke
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 19,1 MB
Release : 2017
Category :
ISBN : 9783867887991
Book Description
Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty
Author :
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 26,81 MB
Release : 2021
Category :
ISBN : 9789289945417
Book Description
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro area. Our measures display a clear counter-cyclical pattern and line up well to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we estimate a Proxy SVAR where we instrument uncertainty shocks with changes in the price of gold around specific past events. We find that, historically, global uncertainty shocks have been important drivers of fluctuations in euro area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0.15 percentage points from euro area industrial production on impact.
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 43,18 MB
Release : 2017-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484326113
Book Description
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area
Author : Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 10,31 MB
Release : 2018-12-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484392345
Book Description
We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
Investment under Uncertainty
Author : Robert K. Dixit
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 484 pages
File Size : 11,79 MB
Release : 2012-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1400830176
Book Description
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Alternative Economic Indicators
Author : C. James Hueng
Publisher : W.E. Upjohn Institute
Page : 133 pages
File Size : 40,46 MB
Release : 2020-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0880996765
Book Description
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy
Author : Mohammed El Hedi Arouri
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 927 pages
File Size : 20,80 MB
Release : 2013-12-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0124115632
Book Description
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan - Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy - Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets - Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies
How to Write about Economics and Public Policy
Author : Katerina Petchko
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 30,22 MB
Release : 2018-07-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0128130113
Book Description
How to Write about Economics and Public Policy is designed to guide graduate students through conducting, and writing about, research on a wide range of topics in public policy and economics. This guidance is based upon the actual writing practices of professional researchers in these fields and it will appeal to practitioners and students in disciplinary areas such as international economics, macroeconomics, development economics, public finance, policy studies, policy analysis, and public administration. Supported by real examples from professional and student writers, the book helps students understand what is expected of writers in their field and guides them through choosing a topic for research to writing each section of the paper. This book would be equally effective as a classroom text or a self-study resource. - Teaches students how to write about qualitative and quantitative research in public policy and economics in a way that is suitable for academic consumption and that can drive public policy debates - Uses the genre-based approach to writing to teach discipline-appropriate ways of framing problems, designing studies, and writing and structuring content - Includes authentic examples written by students and international researchers from various sub-disciplines of economics and public policy - Contains strategies and suggestions for textual analysis of research samples to give students an opportunity to practice key points explained in the book - Is based on a comprehensive analysis of a research corpus containing 400+ research articles in various areas of public policy and economics
