Book Description

Under business-as-usual projections to the year 2100, inequality in per capita carbon emissions is likely to decline-but slowly. Targeted reductions should be effective in reducing not only total emissions but emissions inequality. Heil and Wodon analyze inequality in future carbon emissions using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declining, but slowly. They also measure the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II (non-Eastern European high income) countries in 2010, focusing on the their gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Per capita emissions of Annex II and non-Annex II countries will probably not be substantially reranked unless the Annex II countries reduce their emissions by at least half (from 1990 levels) and emissions from non-Annex II countries continue growing unabated. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to analyze the implications of economic growth. The author may be contacted at [email protected].