Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices


Book Description

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.




Fundamentals of Petroleum Trading


Book Description

Until as recently as the late 1970s, the main channel for oil distribution was the integrated system of the major oil companies, while the volume of spot trading was limited to roughly 5 percent of the total oil trade. Today, spot and spot-related deals account for 80 to 85 percent of internationally traded petroleum, and have ushered in a new era of petroleum trading. In this work, Hossein Razavi and Fereidun Fesharaki offer a detailed study of the workings and issues surrounding today's oil trading market as they apply to all parties involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of petroleum. They provide a complete description of petroleum spot markets, futures, and options trading, and their interlinkages with contract sales. Razavi and Fesharaki cover a wide range of topics, and challenge the generally accepted view that spot and futures trading have wrested the power of price setting away from OPEC. They claim that prices are still determined by supply, which OPEC continues to influence. The book is divided into four sections, beginning with an overview of recent developments in spot, futures, and contract trading. Section two provides an analysis of spot and spot-related deals, while the third section describes the mechanics, organization, and evolution of petroleum futures markets and options trading. The work concludes with an in-depth section on interlinkages, examining the interactions among various segments of the market, including spot and futures trading, petroleum stock building, and OPEC. This book will be a valuable resource tool for libraries as well as a wide range of users, from oil industry professionals and financial analysts to students of energy-related topics.







Oil Trading Manual


Book Description

The Oil Trading Manual (OTM) provides a unique and comprehensive reference source to the latest developments in the structure and conduct of the international oil markets including: - Physical characteristics and refining - Oil pricing arrangements - Physical oil markets - Forward and futures contracts - Options and swaps - Operations and logistics - Accounting and taxation - Controlling financial risk - Legal and regulatory controlOTM provides a unique and comprehensive reference source to the structure and conduct of the international oil markets. The manual covers all the major oil trading instruments and their applications; the trading centres, contracts, uses and users of both the physical and the terminal oil markets, and their administrative, management, tax, and accounting implications. It also includes vital information on changes to the international legal and regulatory structures. The manual is divided into three complementary parts; Characteristics An introduction to oil and oil trading, and includes material on the nature of oil as a commodity, refinery processes and the different ways in which oil is priced. Instruments and markets Deals with the oil market itself taking each segment in turn, explaining how the various trading instruments work and describing the markets that have evolved to trade them. It starts with the physical oil markets, moving on to forward and futures markets, followed by options and swaps. Administration Covers the essential 'back-room' activities without which oil trading could not continue. It includes practical material on operations and logistics, credit control, accounting, taxation, contracts and regulation, and controlling financial risk, providing a unique guide to the subject. Compiled from the contributions of a range of internationally respected professionals, it is the indispensable practical companion for all those involved with trading in this complex commodity. Revised and updated 2003




The Oil Bubble


Book Description




Commodity Prices and Markets


Book Description

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.




Futures Trading in Onions


Book Description




Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation


Book Description

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.