FY2018–FY2020 Medium-Term Budget


Book Description

The Fund has been operating under a flat real resource envelope for the past six years. With continued efforts to maximize the use of available resources, spending in FY 17 is projected to reach 99 percent of the net administrative budget, and a low vacancy rate has helped stabilize overtime at 11 percent. Internal savings and reallocations have allowed the Fund to dedicate more resources to country work, including capacity development, without requiring an increase in the approved budget—apart from $6 million provided in FY 17 to cover rising security costs. An unchanged real net administrative budget in FY 18, despite deeper Fund engagement in a number of areas, as well as increased costs for corporate modernization. Accordingly, the budget proposal incorporates significant savings from reallocations and efficiency gains to fund new demands, as well as a further increase in the upfront allocation of carry-forward funds by about $10 million. The broad themes of the proposal are: (i) more intensive country work with a shift from surveillance to programs, but net savings in field offices; (ii) significant policy and analytical work on the financial sector and the role of the Fund (global safety net, facilities, and quotas), albeit less than in FY 17, with more work on structural issues and new challenges; (iii) funding for transforming IT and HR services, offset by central savings; and (iv) enhanced risk mitigation and knowledge management (KM), with the establishment of a KM unit to support cross-country analysis and knowledge transfer. At this stage, a flat resource envelope is assumed also for the medium term, contingent on continued reprioritization and a broadly unchanged global economic environment. Upward pressure on resources will arise from growing capacity development activities and certain revenue losses. Savings are expected from the TransformIT initiative and internal efficiency gains. But for the budget to remain flat, the Fund will need to continuously reprioritize and adjust its activities to make room for new demands. Even then, a more challenging global environment, with a further ramping up of Fund lending, or significant demands for deeper engagement in other areas, would put significant strains on resources over the medium term. The proposed capital budget envelope for FY 18–20 remains broadly unchanged from current levels. Some frontloading, however, is planned for the first two years, due to the cyclical nature of these investments and to accommodate strategic IT projects.







FY 2021-FY 2023 Medium-Term Budget


Book Description

On April 27, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the IMF’s administrative and capital budgets for financial year (FY) 2021, beginning May 1, 2020, and took note of indicative budgets for FY 2022–23.




FY2018 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn


Book Description

"The Fund continues to make efforts to maximize the use of available resources in order to deliver on the priorities and initiatives laid out in the Global Policy Agenda (GPA). The FY 18 outturn reflects reallocations and efficiency gains, as well as flexibility provided by carry forward resources. With the number of Fund arrangements falling, the Fund’s outputs shifted from spending on lending activity to multilateral surveillance. On the input side, the structural budget was fully utilized. This paper presents key highlights of the FY 18 outturn, including a discussion of the outputs and inputs. Details on Capacity Development (CD) are presented in Annex"







Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2017 and FY 2018


Book Description

The Fund’s total net income for FY 2017, including surcharges, is projected at about SDR 1.7 billion or some SDR 0.7 billion higher than expected in April 2016. This mainly reflects the IAS 19 adjustment (relating to reporting of employee benefits), which is expected to contribute about SDR 0.4 billion to net income, and higher investment income. Lending income is expected to be modestly lower than the April 2016 estimates. The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 1.2 billion for FY 2017 (which excludes projected income of the gold endowment), be placed equally to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2017 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 16.4 billion at the end of FY 2017. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. In April 2016, the margin for the rate of charge was set at 100 basis points for the two years FY 2017 and FY 2018. The margin may be adjusted before the end of the first year of this two-year period (i.e., FY 2017) but only if warranted by fundamental changes in the underlying factors relevant for the establishment of the margin at the start of the two-year period. Staff does not propose a change in the margin. The projections for FY 2018 point to a net income position of SDR 0.7 billion. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.




Samoa


Book Description

This paper discusses Samoa’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. Samoa has shown resilience to multiple past economic shocks, underpinned by the authorities’ strong commitment to support the economy, and financial assistance provided by the international community. The global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has exacerbated the impact of the measles outbreak of late-2019 on Samoa’s economy. The border closure, combined with a sudden stop of tourist arrivals and decline in remittances, has led to a precipitous fall in two vital sources of foreign earnings and resulted in an urgent balance of payments need. Beyond the immediate response, the authorities will continue to implement structural reforms, with policies appropriately balanced between safeguarding debt sustainability and promoting economic growth. They also need to continue their efforts to enhance spending efficiency, strengthen social protection programs and safety nets, further improve tax administration, strengthen public financial management, and safeguard financial stability. Addressing vulnerability to climate change remains a key medium-term challenge to create a fiscal buffer.




Energy and Water Development Appropriations for 2018


Book Description




Missile Defense and Defeat


Book Description

The National Defense Authorization Act of 2016 mandates a review of missile defeat policy, strategy, and capability to be completed by January 2018. This upcoming Missile Defeat Review (MDR) represents an opportunity for the Trump administration to articulate a vision for the future of air and missile defense. This collection of expert essays explores how the strategic environment for missile defense and defeat has evolved since 2010 and offers recommendations to help guide and inform the MDR’s development.




Japan


Book Description

KEY ISSUES Abenomics has lifted Japan out of the doldrums and needs to be reinforced to accomplish the desired “once in a lifetime” economic regime shift. Building on initial positive results, policies now need to embark on a sustained effort to meet the unprecedented challenges Japan is facing: ending an entrenched deflationary mindset, raising growth, restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, and maintaining financial stability in the face of adverse demographics. Japan should be at the vanguard of structural reform. More vigorous efforts to raise labor supply and deregulate domestic markets, backed by further endeavors to raise wages and investment and designed to boost confidence and raise domestic demand, will be essential to lift growth, facilitate fiscal consolidation, and unburden monetary policy. A credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan is needed to remove uncertainty about the direction of policies that may be holding back domestic demand. The overarching goal should be to put debt on a downward path, through gradual but steady consolidation that does not derail growth and inflation momentum. It should be based on prudent economic assumptions and on concrete structural revenue and expenditure measures identified upfront. More explicit monetary guidance would enhance inflation dynamics. Actual and expected inflation remain well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) inflation target and monetary policy transmission remains weak. The BoJ needs to stand ready to undertake further easing and should provide stronger guidance to markets through enhanced communication. Absent deeper structural reforms, even with further easing, reaching two- percent inflation in a stable manner is likely to take longer than envisaged, suggesting that the BoJ should put greater emphasis on achieving the inflation target in a stable manner rather than within a specific time frame. The financial sector should be a greater catalyst for growth, and guard against risks from unconventional policies. The soundness of the financial system allows more risk taking and consolidation, while remaining resilient to the likely higher volatility of asset prices, exchange rates and interest rates, and lower liquidity in the JGB market as quantitative easing proceeds. While the 2014 external position was assessed to be broadly aligned with fundamentals, subsequent developments and incomplete policies raise the risk of negative spillovers. With the depreciation of the yen relative to its mid-2014 level, further monetary easing without bolder structural reforms and a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan could lead to sluggish domestic demand and overreliance on yen depreciation to pursue domestic policy objectives.