Greece: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece


Book Description

Greece has weathered the pandemic well, with a considerably stronger-than-expected recovery. Reforms progressed in several areas, including digitalization, privatization, improving the fiscal policy mix, and bank balance sheet repair. Greece finalized its early repayment to the IMF on April 4 and is expected to graduate from the quarterly European Institutions’ Enhanced Surveillance framework on schedule by August 2022. Despite the adverse impact of the war in Ukraine, growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5 percent this year. High energy prices are expected to push up average inflation to 6.1 percent. Public debt is on a downward trajectory and rollover risks appear manageable. The external position last year was moderately weaker than that consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.




Cyprus: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus


Book Description

Cyprus is highly exposed to the fallout from the war in Ukraine through trade with Russia. This new challenge comes against the background of the lingering effects of the pandemic and financial vulnerabilities dating from the 2012–13 crisis. Growth is projected to slow from 51⁄2 percent in 2021 to around 2 percent this year. Recovery will regain momentum in 2023, and is projected to continue in the medium term, supported by investments and structural reforms in the Recovery and Resilience Plan.




Switzerland: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland


Book Description

Recovery was strong in 2021, but there are headwinds from the war in Ukraine. 2021 output was 1 percent higher than in 2019, but 2 percent below pre-Covid trends; unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels. Inflation has picked up (2.5 percent in April), but below other advanced economies. Strong exports/merchanting led to a higher current account surplus. Although the energy mix (nuclear, hydro) has limited exposure to Russia, exposures of commodity traders and indirect channels could be important. Growth is likely to slow to 21⁄4 percent in 2022 (3⁄4 ppt. drag from the war). Risks are to the downside (war escalation, Covid developments, real estate). Covid outlays are lower in 2022, but still large (1.2 percent of GDP). Outlays related to Ukraine are likely to be accommodated as extraordinary. The Swiss National Bank is closely monitoring inflation, seeing it returning to the 0–2 percent range this year. The authorities reactivated the sectoral CCyB for residential real estate. They are pursuing pension and labor reforms, climate initiatives, energy security, and renewed EU engagement.




Proceedings of the 2022 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2022)


Book Description

This is an open access book. 2022 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2022) to be held in Chongqing (Online) on October 14-16, 2022. As the leader of the global trend of scientific and technological innovation, China is constantly creating a more open scientific and technological innovation environment, expanding the depth and breadth of academic cooperation, and building a shared innovation community. These efforts are making new contributions to globalization and building a community with a shared future for mankind. ICEMCI aims to bring together innovative academics and industry experts in Economic Management and Cultural Industry into a common forum. We will discuss and research on areas such as International Economics and Trade, Sustainable Economic Development, Economic Statistics, Economic Policy, The impact of cultural industries on the economy, etc. ICEMCI 2022 also aims to provide a platform for experts, scholars, engineers, technicians and technology R&D personnel to share scientific research results and cutting-edge technologies, understand academic development trends, expand research ideas, strengthen academic research and discussion, and promote cooperation in the industrialization of academic achievements . With the theme "Economic Management and Cultural Industry", ICEMCI 2022 aspires to keeping up with advances and changes to a consistently morphing field. Leading researchers and industry experts from around the globe will be presenting the latest studies through papers, keynote speeches and oral presentations. We warmly invite you to participate in ICEMCI 2022 and look forward to seeing you in Chongqing !




Greece


Book Description

Greece’s economic outlook has improved notably, but significant challenges remain. The economy has resumed income convergence, ending a decade of stagnation with high unemployment and low investment amid large deleveraging. Real GDP has expanded beyond the pre-pandemic trend level, driven by the cyclical recovery of tourism demand and the resumption of structural reforms and investment in the context of Next Generation EU. Strong growth and high inflation have brought the public debt-to-GDP ratio down below its pre-pandemic level with limited financing risks in the medium term due to the favorable debt structure. However, despite regaining sovereign investment grade status and improving bank balance sheets, the economy is facing macro-financial challenges amid significant monetary policy tightening, persistent core inflation, and rising real estate prices. Structural imbalances arising from low household savings and still low level of investment as well as increasing risks from climate change are weighing on medium-term growth prospects.




Negotiating the New Normal


Book Description

" The world economy was still reeling from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 when the COVID-19 pandemic struck like a bolt of lightning in late 2019. Whatever remained of the neoliberal credo - based on the salience of free markets - was upended, and economic nationalism fast became the new stock ideology. In Negotiating the New Normal, Saurav Jha carefully examines why, in the wake of the coronavirus shock, strong economic recovery in the developed world is more doubtful than ever. Instead of throwing its weight behind a multipolar world order, China, by far the largest economy among the BRICS nations, has chosen to create a Pax Sinica. However, it is unlikely to make much headway owing to both internal economic contradictions and pushback from the West and beyond. And what of India? Can it become a 'new China' to serve as a key engine of global growth, overcoming the pandemic-induced setback, as well as earlier policy missteps like demonetization? Answering all these questions and raising many more, Jha's deeply researched and cogently argued account examines the 'new normal' of a transactional, even predatory geoeconomic climate where central banks are fast running out of answers and heavily indebted governments are desperately searching for silver bullets. This work of extraordinary depth and ambition, tracing the destinies of the major economic centres of the world, provides a nuanced if sobering context to the reader as it suggests what India must do to rise in this grave new pandemic-ridden world. "




Sovereign Debt Restructuring and the Law


Book Description

The book sheds light on the perhaps most important legal conundrum in the context of sovereign debt restructuring: the holdout creditor problem. Absent an international bankruptcy regime for sovereigns, holdout creditors may delay or even thwart the efficient resolution of sovereign debt crises by leveraging contractual provisions and, in an increasing number of cases, by seeking to enforce a debt claim against the sovereign in courts or international tribunals. Following an introduction to sovereign debt and its restructuring, the book provides the first comprehensive analysis of the holdout creditor problem in the context of the two largest sovereign debt restructuring operations in history: the Argentine restructurings of 2005 and 2010 and the 2012 Greek private sector involvement. By reviewing numerous lawsuits and arbitral proceedings initiated against Argentina and Greece across a dozen different jurisdictions, it distils the organizing principles for ongoing and future cases of sovereign debt restructuring and litigation. It highlights the different approaches judges and arbitrators have adopted when dealing with holdout creditors, ranging from the denial of their contractual right to repayment on human rights grounds to leveraging the international financial infrastructure to coerce governments into meeting holdouts’ demands. To this end, it zooms in on the role the governing law plays in sovereign debt restructurings, revisits the contemporary view on sovereign immunity from suit and enforcement in the international debt context, and examines how creditor rights are balanced with the sovereign’s interest in achieving debt sustainability. Finally, it advances a new genealogy of holdouts, distinguishing between official and private sector holdouts and discussing how the proliferation of new types of uncooperative creditors may affect the sovereign debt architecture going forward. While the book is aimed at practitioners and scholars dealing with sovereign debt and its restructuring, it should also provide the general reader with the understanding of the key legal issues facing countries in debt distress. Moreover, by weaving economic, financial, and political considerations into its analysis of holdout creditor litigation and arbitration, the book also speaks to policymakers without a legal background engaged in the field of international finance and economics.




Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro


Book Description

COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.




Greece


Book Description

The Greek economy is teetering owing to heavy public debt and loss of market access. Greece is adopting an ambitious comprehensive multiyear adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit and the debt ratio, reduce domestic demand in line with capacity, and increase supply and competitiveness so that the economy can step onto a higher growth path led by investments and exports. Greece needs a strong and sustained adjustment program to lower the fiscal deficit substantially and create the basis for a declining debt ratio.




Spain: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain


Book Description

The Spanish economy is recovering from the deep recession caused by the COVID pandemic and employment is already above its pre-pandemic level. A highly successful vaccination campaign helped limit the impact of the recent wave of infections on hospitalizations and economic activity. Output is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022. However, there is significant uncertainty around the recovery path related to the evolution of the pandemic and the duration of global supply bottlenecks. The pace of absorption and the effectiveness of use of Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds will also affect growth in the coming years. In the near term, the key policy challenge is to continue to provide targeted pandemic support while facilitating resource reallocation and a transformation to a greener and more inclusive economy.