The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation


Book Description

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.




Preliminary Evidence on Internal Migration, Remittances, and Teen Schooling in India


Book Description

"Migration can serve as an outlet for employment, higher earnings, and reduced income risk for households in developing countries. We use the 2004-2005 Human Development Profile of India survey to examine correlations between the receipt of remittances from internal migrants and human capital investment in rural areas. We employ a propensity score-matching approach to account for the selectivity of households into receiving remittances. We interpret the results conservatively due to the cross-sectional nature of the data. We find a positive correlation between remittances received from internal migrants and the schooling attendance of teens. The magnitude of the correlation is greater when focusing on low-caste households, and male schooling attendance in particular becomes more positive and statistically significant. Our findings provide a basis for establishing future research in the areas of migration and social protection in India."--Authors' abstract.




Do Institutions Limit Clientelism? A Study of the District Assemblies Common Fund in Ghana


Book Description

"Analyses of how coveted central-government resources in Africa are shared have shown widespread patronage, ethnic cronyism, and pork-barrel politics. While some governments have attempted to rectify the situation by establishing revenue-sharing formulas, a key unanswered question is whether such institutions are able to achieve this goal. This paper presents an empirical investigation of a pioneering formula-based system of resource allocation from the central government to local governments in Ghana--the District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF). The evidence is consistent with governments being able to politically manipulate resource allocation within the confines of the formula-based system. Nevertheless, this does not suggest that the DACF completely fails to limit political influence. It indicates that other guiding structures of a formula-based system--in particular, how and when the formula can be altered--are important determinants of how well a program such as the DACF is able to resist political pressures."--Authors' abstract.




The State of Food Insecurity in Maputo, Mozambique


Book Description

Food insecurity is a fact of life for the vast majority of households across Maputo’s poverty belt. The Maputo urban food security survey done by AFSUN as part of its baseline survey of 11 Southern African cities found that households exist in a constant state of food insecurity manifested in a lack of access to sufficient affordable food, poor dietary quality and undernutrition. Income is meagre and only those households with access to wage income have any chance of holding food insecurity at bay. With a vibrant informal food economy, Maputo’s poor are surrounded by fresh and processed food. Food availability is therefore not the primary determinant of food insecurity in Maputo. Certainly large-scale food import from South Africa and further afield makes the market price of food inherently volatile. But prices for the consumer are also driven down by the fact that there is intense competition among vendors on the streets and in the marketplaces. The real cause of food insecurity is high urban unemployment and a lack of regular and decent-paying work. Among its recommendations, AFSUN urges the city of Maputo to set up a food security strategy that is multisectoral and policy-oriented and based on a better understanding of food flows into and within the city, the operation of the city’s informal food economy and the likely impacts of formal retailing for the food security of the urban poor.




Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa


Book Description

While the economic growth renaissance in sub-Saharan Africa is widely recognized, much less is known about progress in living conditions. This book comprehensively evaluates trends in living conditions in 16 major sub-Saharan African countries, corresponding to nearly 75% of the total population. A striking diversity of experience emerges. While monetary indicators improved in many countries, others are yet to succeed in channeling the benefits of economic growth into the pockets of the poor. Some countries experienced little economic growth, and saw little material progress for the poor. At the same time, the large majority of countries have made impressive progress in key non-monetary indicators of wellbeing. Overall, the African growth renaissance earns two cheers, but not three. While gains in macroeconomic and political stability are real, they are also fragile. Growth on a per capita basis is much better than in the 1980s and 1990s, yet not rapid compared with other developing regions. Importantly from a pan-African perspective, key economies-particularly Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa-are not among the better performers. Looking forward, realistic expectations are required. The development process is, almost always, a long hard slog. Nevertheless, real and durable factors appear to be at play on the sub-continent with positive implications for growth and poverty reduction in future.




Distributional impact of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines


Book Description

In March 2019, the government of the Philippines promulgated a bill called the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL). It has dramatically changed the policy landscape in the rice sector and generated heated debates on how it would affect food security and poverty. This study explores the welfare effects of this reform across different types of households. We rely on the IRRI Global Rice Model to simulate the domestic price effects of the reform (Balié and Valera, 2020) and the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) to study the welfare impact of these price changes. Our results show that the RTL reduces consumer and producer rice prices, which affects households on the production and the consumption sides. Because a large majority of households are net buyers of rice and the policy reform reduces rice prices, most households benefit from the reform. Overall, the effects of the reform on poverty are beneficial. The poorest quintiles are positively affected, while the richest quintiles are unaffected or slightly worse-off. Spatially, the poorest regions also benefit the most. However, the rice growers who are net sellers are negatively impacted. The government should seek to mitigate the negative effects on non-competitive rice growers. Investments in public goods and services are a promising option to ease the emergence of on-farm and off-farm businesses as more profitable alternatives to rice production.




Risk Assessment of Food Supply


Book Description

In recent years, food prices have been volatile worldwide. High and fluctuating food prices have led to riots in many low income countries, and have increased the world poverty population. Both developed and developing nations are rushing to buy farmland, even outside their own countries, for their future food security, which indicates that it has been more difficult to secure food supplies. This book addresses the issue of agricultural trade liberalisation by Japan, factors behind the world food price spikes in 2008 and their impacts on the least developed economies, using computable general equilibrium models. The book gives the reader insights into the probabilistic benefits and risks of agricultural free trade by Japan that past literature has not answered. Furthermore, the reader will be given a better understanding about the size of the impacts of various factors behind the 2008 food price hikes, such as biofuel, the rise in oil price, severe poor harvests in Australia, and their effects on impoverished countries. This book will be indispensable, not only for students, academics and policy makers who are involved in the fields of agriculture, development, and food security, but also for people learning CGE modelling, as it provides readers with plenty of information on the structure and applications of the models.




Agricultural Policies for Poverty Reduction


Book Description

This volume sets out a strategy for raising rural incomes which emphasises the creation of diversified rural economies with opportunities within and outside agriculture.




Handbook on Food


Book Description

'This volume is a welcome and timely contribution to a topic of enduring importance. The global consequences of recent food price crises underscore the need to examine food security issues from diverse perspectives. This volume meets that need, featuring accessible yet cutting-edge analyses of food security by leading experts in fields as diverse as trade, nutrition, public health, production, political economy, and behavioral economics. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars and practitioners.' --Steven Block, Tufts University, US. 'This excellent volume offers a compact but wide-ranging survey of recent research on important changes in global food markets. Its 20 chapters accurately capture important areas of scholarly agreement as well as on-going debates among economists studying agriculture and nutrition, with several provocative original contributions from other fields. The book draws particularly on the authors' long experience in Asia, offering widely-applicable insights for scholars and policy analysts seeking to understand the past, present and future of food around the world.' --William A. Masters, Tufts University, US. The global population is forecasted to reach 9.4 billion by 2050, with much of this increase concentrated in developing regions and cities. Ensuring adequate food and nourishment to this large population is a pressing economic, moral and even security challenge and requires research (and action) from a multi-disciplinary perspective. This book provides the first such integrated approach to tackling this problem by addressing the multiplicity of challenges posed by rising global population, diet diversification and urbanization in developing countries and climate change. It examines key topics such as: the impact of prosperity on food demand, the role of international trade in addressing food insecurity, the challenge posed by greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land degradation, the implication on labor markets of severe under-nutrition, viability of small scale farms, strategies to augment food availability. The Handbook on Food would be a welcome supplementary text for courses on development economics, particularly those concentrating on agricultural development, climate change and food availability, as well as nutrition.