China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime


Book Description

China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.




Conquering the Fear of Freedom


Book Description

This book documents changes in the foreign exchange rate regime and policy in Japan since the end of the Second World War from a historical perspective.




A History of Yen Exchange Rates


Book Description

The history of Japanese exchange rates, though short by British or American standards, is exceedingly rich, both from the standpoint of variation in the data and in the institutions governing exchange rate arrangements and Japanese monetary conditions. This paper reviews that history and traces the evolution of yen-dollar and yen-sterling exchange rates to indexes of purchasing power parity, and it investigates the links among exchange-rate regimes, exchange rates themselves and other macroeconomic variables. Two conclusions emerge: (1) Purchasing power parity - at least in relative form - held remarkably well for the yen over the longer run. (2) The variability of real yen exchange rates under the current float does not, in fact, differ greatly from the often substantial and largely self-reversing movements observed historically.




Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate


Book Description

The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the following features. First, the expected exchange rate changes in the short horizon (one month) are of the band-wagon type while the expected changes in the long horizon (three to six months) are of the mean- reversion type. That is, foreign exchange traders infer from recent appreciations or depreciation that the recent change in the exchange rate will continue for a while, but the direction of changes will reverse, eventually. Second, this result is robust for the entire sample period, which includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the deviation from an equilibrium exchange rate does not yield a robust estimate in the regression of expectation formation. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several years, they are not captured in the six-month expectations in the survey data.




The Yen-dollar Relationship


Book Description




Dollar and Yen


Book Description

Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. From the mid-1950s to the early 1990s, Japan grew faster than any other major industrial economy, displacing the United States in dominance of worldwide manufacturing markets. In the 1970s and 1980s, many books appeared linking the apparent decline of the United States in the world economy to unfair Japanese practices that closed the Japanese market to a wide range of foreign goods. Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. The authors argue against the prevailing view that the trade imbalance should be corrected by dollar depreciation, saying that adjustment through the exchange rate is both ineffective and costly. Stepping outside the traditional dichotomy between international trade and international finance, they link the yen's tremendous appreciation from 1971 to mid-1995 to mercantile pressure from the United States arising from trade tensions between the two countries. Although sometimes resisted by the Bank of Japan, this yen appreciation nevertheless forced unwanted deflation on the Japanese economy after 1985--resulting in two major recessions (endaka fukyos). The authors argue for relaxing commercial tensions between the two countries, and for limiting future economic downturns, by combining a commercial compact for mutual trade liberalization with a monetary accord for stabilizing the yen-dollar exchange rate.







News and the Dollar/yen Exchange Rate, 1931-1933


Book Description

According to the efficient market hypothesis, news in Tokyo is responsible for the exchange rate changes during the Tokyo market hours, while the U.S. news is responsible for changes in the New York hours. The intra-daily dynamics of the $/yen exchange rate from December 1931 to November 1933 is analyzed. Japan's decision to go off gold in December 1931 depreciated yen by 30% in a month, mostly in the Tokyo market. During 1932, the yen depreciated another 30%, mainly due to Japan's aggression in China and resulting diplomatic isolation. In 1933, the yen appreciated against the dollar, mainly in the New York market, due to the U.S. decision to go off gold. However, exchange rate volatility and its sensitivity to news declined over the two year period, because of increasing capital controls. Changes in the interest rate differential was found insignificant for the changes in the exchange rate. Political regime changes, such as a decision to go off gold, most influenced the exchange rate for the period considered. There were no policy decisions by Japan to cause yen depreciation to promote export and limit import in 1931-33.




Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/dollar Exchange Rate


Book Description

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.