Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis


Book Description

Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates. This relationship is however asymmetric, being significant only for debt build-ups. Declining debt ratios and saving are significantly related in some economies, but the relationship is driven by consumer credit, not by mortgages. Results therefore suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via lower mortgages.




Understanding Financial Accounts


Book Description

Understanding Financial Accounts seeks to show how a range of questions on financial developments can be answered with the framework of financial accounts and balance sheets, by providing non-technical explanations illustrated with practical examples.




The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit


Book Description

As both the twenty-first century and the new millennium opened and the old eras passed into history, individuals and organizations throughout the world advanced their listings of the most significant people and events in their respective specialties. Possibly more important, the tum of the clock and calendar also offered these same observers a good reason to glance into the crystal ball. Presumably, the past is of greatest interest to most people when it permits better understanding of the present, and maybe even limited insight into the outlook. In keeping with the reflective mood of the time, the staff and friends of the Credit Research Center (CRC) at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business noted that the beginning of the new millennium also marked the beginning of the second quarter-century of the Center's existence. The Center began at the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University in 1974 and moved to the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University in 1997. The silver anniversary of its founding offered the occasion for creating more than another listing of significant past accomplishments and milestones. Rather, it offered the opportunity and, indeed, a mandate for CRC as an academic research center, to undertake a retrospective and future look into the status of research questions pertaining to consumer credit markets. For this reason, the Center organized a research conference which was held in Washington, D. C.




Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts


Book Description

Balance sheet recessions have been a drag on activity after the Global Financial Crisis, underscoring the important role of balance sheet adjustment for resuming sustained growth. In this paper we examine private sector deleveraging experiences across 36 advanced and emerging economies countries since 1960. We consider the common features and divergent experiences of deleveraging episodes across countries, and analyze empirically the impact of different aspects of deleveraging during the bust phase of leverage cycles on subsequent medium-term growth. The results suggest that larger and quicker unwinding of non-financial sector debt overhangs is associated with sizable medium-term output gains, and that policies should focus on facilitating up-front balance sheet adjustment.




Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms


Book Description

The recent global crisis highlighted the risks stemming from real estate booms. This has generated a growing literature trying to better understand the sources and the risks associated with housing and credit booms. This paper complements and supplements the previous work by (i) exploiting more disaggregated data on credit allowing us to dissociate between firm-credit and household (and in some cases mortgage) credit, and (ii) by taking into account the characteristics of the mortgage market, including institutional as well as other factors that vary across countries. This detailed cross-country analysis offers new valuable insights.




Household Leverage and the Recession


Book Description

We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.




Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012


Book Description

The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.




Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources


Book Description

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.




Australia


Book Description

This study relates Australian household saving more closely to movements in asset market using event study analysis and econometric analysis. In this study, the policy challenges for Australia from rebalancing in China, a temporary growth slowdown in China, and a recession in advanced countries are analyzed. The Globally Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) is used for policy challenges. The impact of the mining boom on the Australian labor market is also discussed in this paper.