How Europe Can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal


Book Description

It is not too early for Europe to devise a plan that would seek to protect the JCPOA from both a U.S. withdrawal and continued uncertainty. This aim could be achieved through a package of incentives aimed at persuading the Iranian leadership that the benefits of remaining compliant with the JCPOA outweigh the potential costs of non-compliance and retaliation. If the E3 preserve their current unified position and, if need be, chart a path independent of the U.S. to salvage the nuclear deal, they potentially could help avert the reignition of the nuclear crisis in a Middle East in turmoil. This course also would leave the door open for a future U.S. return to the JCPOA.




Europe and Iran’s Nuclear Crisis


Book Description

This book investigates the European involvement in managing the nuclear dispute with Iran, shedding new light on EU foreign policy-making. The author focuses on the peculiar format through which the EU managed Iran’s nuclear issue: a ‘lead group’ consisting of France, Germany and the UK and the High Representative for EU foreign policy (E3/EU). The experience of the E3/EU lends credibility to the claim that lead groups give EU foreign policy direction and substance. The E3/EU set up a negotiating framework that worked as a de-escalating tool, a catalyst for Security Council unity and a forum for crisis management. They inflicted pain on Iran by adopting a comprehensive sanctions regime, but did so only having secured US commitment to a diplomatic solution. Once the deal was reached, they defended it vigorously. The E3/EU may have been supporting actors, but their achievements were real.




Getting to a New Iran Deal


Book Description




EU Diplomacy and the Iran Nuclear Deal: Staying Power?


Book Description

The nuclear deal with Iran is often hailed as one of the few diplomatic successes of EU foreign policy. While the convening power of the European Union in 'the making of' phase of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has indeed been critical and well documented, an independent assessment of the EU's facilitating and mediating role in the implementation of the nuclear agreement has so far been lacking. This paper seeks to plug that gap. It analyses the tasks entrusted to the EU as the coordinator of the Joint Commission, the executive body overseeing the implementation of the agreement, evaluates how the EU has performed its duties and assesses whether the economic benefits which the EU derives from the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions and the opening of the Iranian market risk undermining its role as an honest broker. This paper finds that, in the Joint Commission, the EU is accepted as a primus inter pares among the five permanent members of the Security Council, Germany and Iran. Its role is not just to convene and facilitate discussions about the implementation of the nuclear deal, but also to mediate disputes among any of the participants. So far, it has done so successfully. But two years since the signing of the nuclear deal, the real stress test is about to come. How the EU will cajole the administration of President Trump to keep the US wedded to the JCPOA will determine not just the future effectiveness of the nuclear deal, but also colour the legacy of the EU and its High Representative as a diplomatic actor on the global stage.







Iran's Deadly Ambition


Book Description

Are we on the cusp of détente with Iran? Conventional wisdom certainly seems to believe so. Since the start of diplomacy between the Islamic Republic and the P5+1 powers (the United States, France, England, Russia, China, Germany) in November 2013, hopes have been running high for a historic reconciliation of Iran’s clerical regime with the West. Yet there is ample reason for skepticism that the United States and its allies can truly curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions by diplomatic means. Moreover, the West’s current focus on Iran’s nuclear program is deeply dangerous insofar as it fails to recognize—let alone address—Iran’s other international activities or its foreign policy aims. Those objectives are global, and they continue to grow in scope and menace. In this sobering book, Ilan Berman illuminates the multiple dimensions of the Iranian threat and exposes the perils of lodging confidence in diplomacy with the Islamic Republic.




Losing an Enemy


Book Description

The definitive book on Obama's historic nuclear deal with Iran from the author of the Foreign Affairs Best Book on the Middle East in 2012 This timely book focuses on President Obama's deeply considered strategy toward Iran's nuclear program and reveals how the historic agreement of 2015 broke the persistent stalemate in negotiations that had blocked earlier efforts. The deal accomplished two major feats in one stroke: it averted the threat of war with Iran and prevented the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Trita Parsi, a Middle East foreign policy expert who advised the Obama White House throughout the talks and had access to decision-makers and diplomats on the U.S. and Iranian sides alike, examines every facet of a triumph that could become as important and consequential as Nixon's rapprochement with China. Drawing from more than seventy-five in-depth interviews with key decision-makers, including Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, this is the first authoritative account of President Obama's signature foreign policy achievement.




Dealbreaker


Book Description

The Iran nuclear deal was a crowning moment of international diplomacy, allowing the world to step away from the edge of a self-created abyss. Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from this agreement threatens to return the world to that precipice. Dealbreaker recounts how this deal was made, why it was broken, and what the consequences of that action could be. When the United States made the decision in the 1980s to deny Iran access to nuclear technology, Iran was forced to turn to the black market to get the material, technology and know-how required to meet its need for nuclear power generation, inclusive of the ability to indigenously produce nuclear fuel. The revelation of Iran’s secret nuclear program in 2002 set in motion a battle of wills between the Iranians, who viewed nuclear power as their inherent right, and the rest of the world, who feared the proliferation implications of allowing Iran access to technology that could be used to make a nuclear weapon. The United States and its ally, Israel, pulled no punches, using diplomatic pressure to impose crippling economic sanctions, and covert activities to sow disinformation, sabotage equipment and murder Iranian nuclear scientists in an effort to stop the Iranian nuclear program from going forward. Iran prevailed, confronting the United States with the choice of either going to war, or accepting the reality of an Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear deal was the result. But the deal had an Achilles heel—the disinformation campaign waged by the United States and Israel to paint the Iranian program as military in nature left a residue of uncertainty and fear that the detractors of the deal used to attack it as little more than a sham. Donald Trump decried the Iranian nuclear deal as a “failed agreement” and promised to tear it up if he were elected President. Trump prevailed in the election, and ended up being as good as his word, pulling America out of the Iranian nuclear deal on May 12, 2018. Dealbreaker explores the nuances of the Iranian nuclear program, exposing the duplicity and hypocrisy of American diplomacy, supported by Israel and abetted by Europe, that led to the need for the Iranian nuclear deal and eventually caused the demise of an agreement that was simultaneously “the deal of the century” and fatally flawed.




Geopolitical Outlook for Europe


Book Description

The global outlook for the next 12-24 months looks to be made of ongoing international instability. Great power competition, deliberate disruptiveness and increasing transactionalism in foreign policy, along with the accumulation of crises, terrorism and wars, will create persisting unease and uncertainty. But the shifting geopolitical context will also provide strategic opportunities that can be seized through diplomatic, economic or military measures. Although some will choose confrontation, this need not fully displace new initiatives to champion cooperation around common interests and values. For Europe, fuelled by its sound economic recovery and newfound political momentum, it is a time for resolve, as well as for resurgence in the global arena, including on security and defence, trade and climate change. US President Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal - despite its success in constraining Iran's capability to produce nuclear weapons - is a case in point: EU efforts to save the deal are a sign of its renewed confidence in providing a stabilising function in a globalised world turning ever more unpredictable. In this age of rapid disruption, success will depend on agility and speed in adapting to new circumstances, while keeping true to Europe's values and interests. A seemingly chaotic world will also place a premium on shaping the strategic narrative, both externally and internally, to provide a sense of purpose and a plan of action. Here is our perspective on the geopolitical outlook for Europe and Europe's strategic choices.